@Pommie69
And some serious analysis of the UK prison population statistics coming soon! It's no wonder they lost using old and already discredited statistics! Such a shame, we really didn't need to go backwards but at least those stats and that analysis is with every prison governor of every one of the 11 female prisons in England & Wales. £50 mailout but very well worth it, if it keeps women in prison even a little safer.
I don't think that is fair to the legal teams, or the judges, TBH. The judgement did not hinge on the figures, and in any case the judges accepted that the rate of sexual offending for prisoners of the male sex who ID as transgender held in the male estate at 57% is far in excess of the rate of sexual offending by female offenders and in the male estate overall. That was not contested. Nor was the impact on women in prison. To that extent, I don't believe that Sarah Lamble's witness statement made much difference one way or the other.
Thus far, all data on transgender prisoners of male sex is incomplete because those with a GRC have been excluded from the data: prisoners of the male sex with a GRC have been recorded as women/female and inly as women/female. From 2021 this changes and data on GRC holders will be collected and reported. We do not yet know how 'useful' this reporting will be in terms of disaggregating the numbers. It is also possible that offence categories will not be available for this prisoner cohort due to data protection issues. The MoJ data from 2019 did not include offence categories on the 11 prisoners of male sex housed in the female estate because the small numbers involved meant that anonymity could be compromised. I suspect the same will be the case with GRC holders. Nevertheless, 2021 will be the first year when we should have an accurate statement of how many prisoners of the male sex are held in the female estate. Based on the 2019 data plus statements made in court by defence barrister, this could be up to 20.
That the judges accepted that the rate of sexual offending is far in excess of that for females and for male prisoners BUT STILL did not find in favour of the claimant leads me to conclude that we will not win this on numbers. The judges ruled that the policies are capable of lawful operation and at least in part based this on an understanding that the risk assessment processes are adequate. We know that is not the case and that will be one of my focal points going forward. The judges also made it clear that they had been called upon the decide concerning the lawfulness of the policies, not their desirability. This is another key point for me going forwards. This may be lawful, but it is not desirable. So if it is lawful, the law must change.