Is the risk theoretically calculable?

[youkiddingme]

I have been mulling over how there is a division between those who see self ID as high risk in women's spaces, and those who see it as irrelevantly small.

Firstly, I have seen claims that 90% of those identifying as transwomen have, and intend to keep their male genitalia. So I'm assuming that if this is correct, and I don't know if it is, but I assume it should be possible to get a ballpark figure, then if I encounter a transwomen in a women's space 10 times, 9 of those times that person will have a penis. Is that right?
Next it appears that of those who are incarcerated, over half of trans prisoners have committed sexual offenses, compared to 17% of men.
fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-male-criminality-sex-offences/
Now, while I realise I am much more likely to be attacked by a man, as there are more of them, does this mean that if one transwoman and one man are both in a space I feel vulnerable I am more likely to be attacked by the transwoman?
I guess that depends on what percentage of men and transwomen offend at all. And here it falls apart, because it seems we do not have accurate data. If nothing else this illustrates the problem with recording people according to their wishes instead of, rather than in addition to, the data on their birth certificate, as no comparison can be made. It may be in the interests of the trans community to have this data if they in fact typically offend at lower levels.
The other things that spring to mind are, how likely is it that a man would be in an appropriate space for legitimate reasons, how likely is it that a man would cross-dress simply to offend, and how likely am I to come across a man or a transwoman in the first place?

Does that make sense? I'm no mathematician so I may have fudged some of that. Is it feasible to get any kind of ball-park risk assessment?

The other things that spring to mind are, how likely is it that a man would be in an appropriate space for legitimate reasons, how likely is it that a man would cross-dress simply to offend

I don't think its as clear cut as that. Who is to say that somebody isn't trans? What is cross-dressing? I think that under self ID its likely that most organisations would just try to dodge the bullet by treating all spaces as uni-sex.

Transwomen are male and statistically behave in a similar fashion to other males in terms of criminality. Female only spaces are provided to ensure the safety,dignity and privacy of females by excluding all males no matter their gender identity.

It's pointless trying to do that calculation, it just feeds those who want women to be saying transwomen are pedophiles, rapists etc.... and there are too many variables

The only truth you need is that transwomen commit crime the same way as any other group of males do!

So in any situation you'd normally be wary of a man into, be equally wary of a transwomen.

That's it!

Does it need to be? Why aren't women entitled to privacy?

Is there a case of a service being made mixed sex and women not being harassed or assaulted?

Most men don't commit sex offences but single sex spaces exist.

Women aren't operating on stats. No one operates on stats. Humans are terrible at decent risk assessment.

Most crimes by men are never reported. Most women I know have had multiple creepy man situations.

Many men enjoy making women and girls feel uncomfortable. Without breaking any laws.

It's a no no in our society to take your clothes off in front of the opposite sex. We don't have open mixed changing.

For things like prisons it's a no brainer surely.

Many women do go along with the idea that feelings in your head outweigh socialisation and biology.

The lengths some men will go to to see, photo, access women and girls in a state of undress is crazy.

Separating on the basis of sex always used to work. Why not now.

I always come back to this: who benefits? If it doesn't benefit women and girls to relinquish single sex spaces and, in fact, is likely to be to their detriment, why should they agree to it? It is not the responsibility of women and girls to make space for male born people who are scared of men or for male people who seek validation by using women's spaces.

The clothes a person is wearing is no indication of their internal gender identity.

You could have a burly bearded male who identifies as trans or a crossdressing sissy who is aroused by wearing female clothing but does not identify as trans. There is no way of knowing who is 'real' trans or not. There is no need to alter your appearance to access single sex spaces.

Right now, if there is a man in the women's toilets we can reasonably assume they are there with nefarious intention. Under self ID it would be a hate crime to bat an eyelid.

OP, self ID allows ALL men to access women’s single sex facilities, however they are dressed. If we challenge their right to be there, WE will be arrested for “hate crime”.
Now do you see the problem?
All voyeurs, fetishists, rapists, men who want to put spy cameras in toilets and stream the video to the internet, abusive partners, sniggering teenage boys - they all get a free pass, without even the effort of donning a dress.