Under the Times article, there is a very persistent poster repeating that only 1% of transitioners are unhappy.
Does the persistent poster have a reputable source for that statistic?
That is the low end of the estimate of how many transsexuals experienced transition regret post surgery.
The caveat which must be added to any mention of this number is this:
This estimate only applies to post-op transsexuals who first underwent years of intense counselling that aimed to explore the underlying reasons for their gender dysphoria (GD) and to to treat any co-morbid mental health issues with the aim of reconciling these transsexuals with their own bodies. This was done explicitly to avoid putting them on a path of medically and/or surgically altering their bodies.
However, as we know, transition regret even amongst transsexuals who underwent thorough psychiatric evaluation and subsequent counselling seeking to resolve their dysphoria is underestimated because most of these patients are lost to follow-up and their number is therefore not accurately reflected because we can only count those available to be counted.
We cannot simply assume that all or even the majority of those lost to follow-up are experiencing transition regret either, as many patients may simply find that they are now happy enough post-surgery to maintain their hormone levels under the supervision of their regular doctors.
So that 1% is who told their GD specialists, and that's the number we're working with for this specific demographic.
However, Keira Bell and her peers, did not benefit from either thorough psychiatric assessment or exploration of the possible causes for their GD or therapy seeking to achieve a mind-body integration in these patients in order to avoid any medical transition.
They were, as Keira says, affirmed and never challenged in their thinking. They were given hormones and surgeries without any attempt made to dissuade them from this path.
In light of those fact, the known extremely low prevalence of transsexualism and the high rate of documented desistance among children, I would expect transition regret to be shockingly high in this group, quite possibly higher than 50%.
But at this point we don't know. All we do know is that transition regret among properly counselled transsexuals, who had to wait years for treatment is probably higher than the 1% usually stated. I would put it anywhere between 1 and 20% based on a meta study done in 2010 which found about 80% of patients were reporting subjective improvements after treatment. This ignores the fact that some of the patients who initially reported improvements may have got worse at a later date, which we know has happened. But the reverse also happened - much later improvement among the 20% not reporting any at follow-up.
It stands to reason then if up to 20% of a very carefully vetted group of patients do not report improvements and may come to regret transitioning, that a much higher percentage of a barely vetted group of patients may do so.