Percentage of transwomen with a GRC who haven't undergone surgery?

[Couragetocourage]

I'm writing a motion to take to my CLP and I'm trying to find the figures on this. I have heard numerous times 80% plus - but where does this figure come from? Has anyone got a link to a reliable source? I've tried to find one but I can't, and I don't want to misrepresent anything.

I believe that figure comes from GIRES. You could search for it?

Fairplay for Women have a detailed article about this with sourced statistics etc:
'The vast majority of male-born transwomen still have a penis'
July 2018
(extract)
How big is the transgender population in the UK?
There is no robust data on the number of trans people in the UK. Data on gender identity is not collected in any government social survey. However, estimates are in the region of 1% of the UK population identifying as transgender.

1. In 2009 the Gender Identity Research and Education Service (GIRES, a transgender lobby organisation) published a report that was funded by the Home Office. This first estimate of the size of the trans population in the UK, based on research from the USA and Netherlands, data from Gender Recognition Panels and Gender Identity Clinics.
   GIRES estimated the trans population (i.e. people who experience some degree of gender variance) was approximately 0.6% – 1% of the UK adult population. However, it does appear that this estimate is largely based on studies of men who cross-dress, and the estimate of most (80%) of trans people being born male.

2. In 2012 the Equality And Human Rights Commission (EHRC) reported that 100 people out of 10,000 (1%) answered yes to the following question. However, this study was designed to investigate ‘how’ to ask about transgender identities and is not necessarily representative reflection of the transgender community in the UK.
   “Have you gone through any part of a process (including thoughts or actions) to change from the sex you were described as at birth to the gender you identify with, or do you intend to? (This could include changing your name, wearing different clothes, taking hormones or having gender reassignment surgery).”

3. In 2018, the UK government has produced an estimate for the GRA consultation based on the lowest (0.35%) and highest (1%) prevalence rates, based on a Californian study in 2016 and the 2009 GIRES study.
   The government estimates 200,000 – 500,000 adults identify as transgender in the UK. See page 82 of the government’s consultation document.

4. The ONS has plans to ask about gender identity in the next census in 2021.
   This means no reliable figures on the number of transgender people in the UK will be obtained for another 3 years.

How many transgender people legally transition?
The number of GRC that have been granted since 2004 is 4,910 (June 2018). Three quarters are owned by male-born transgender people and mostly aged 50+. Based on prevalence estimate of 200,000-500,000 trans in UK this means only 1-3% of trans people have changed the sex on their birth certificate. The overwhelming majority of trans people remain legally the sex their were born.

How many transgender people medically transition?
In 2011, GIRES estimated that only 20% of the UK transgender population are likely to seek medical treatment for their condition at some stage. Based on a UK trans prevalence of 1% and assuming a 50:50 split of males and females that means there are 200,000 male-born transgender people in the UK will no body modifications whatsoever. Of the 50,000 trans-identifying males that do seek medical treatment most of these would be expected to be undergoing hormone treatment and/or breast implants. Only a very small proportion of this 20% will be have genital reconstruction surgery.

No one knows for sure how many transwomen keep their penis, but there are fewer than 10 surgeons in the UK who can do the relevant operation. Even if they each performed one operation every single day this would still only represent an absolute max of 3,500 surgeries each year. The actual number performed is likely to be very much smaller than this. An estimate of just a few hundred operation each year would not be unreasonable." (continues)
fairplayforwomen.com/penis/

R0wantrees you’re a legend

I chopped the conclusion of the FP4W article, apologies:

Conclusions:
We don’t know how many transgender people there are in the UK but estimates are up to 1%. The vast majority do not have a GRC and so remain legally the sex they were born. The vast majority also do not seek medical treatment so retain the anatomy of their birth.
Contrary to public perception the overwhelming majority of male-born transgender people retain their penis and are fully male-bodied."

Thank you so much!

Am I missing something or do those figures pertain to the trans population as a whole, not the trans population with a GRC (which the original question was about)?
Of course, you can alreadyget a GRC without surgery, but if they start handing out GRCs to every Tom, Dick and Harry it's a fair bet that the proportion of anatomically male GRC holders will rise and not just the absolute numbers.

In 2011, GIRES estimated that only 20% of the UK transgender population are likely to seek medical treatment for their condition at some stage. Based on a UK trans prevalence of 1% and assuming a 50:50 split of males and females that means there are 200,000 male-born transgender people in the UK will no body modifications whatsoever

There are two assumptions in this that I'm not sure about. First, is there really a 50:50 male/female split? Maybe it's just that transwomen are much more vocal and/or visually obvious than transmen, but there seem to be a lot more transwomen than transmen. Second, do transwomen undergo surgical modification in the same proportion as transmen? Given the deep emotional attachment so many transwomen seem to have to the old meat and two veg, I wonder if actually transmen are much more likely to have surgery of some kind than transwomen. If that's so and the 20% figure refers to both groups, then even allowing for a greater number of transwomen than transmen (if that's a correct assumption) the number of transwomen with no body modifications at all will be greater - maybe much greater - than 80%. But clarifying these issues would require research and that, as we've seen recently, is definitely not allowed.

lowest (0.35%) and highest (1%) prevalence rates

If you compare this to the number of people with gender dysphoria:

Among individuals who are assigned male gender at birth, approximately 0.005 percent to 0.014 percent are diagnosed with gender dysphoria. Among individuals who are assigned female gender at birth, approximately 0.002 percent to 0.003 percent are diagnosed with gender dysphoria.

In other words, you're looking at around 1 in 100 of the transgender population having gender dysphoria.

some stats here...

How very timely that you should ask.

May I present the M2F 'bottom surgeries' carried out by NHS England since 2013. a total of 1445 in 5 years. Of course some of these may include the reddit special where the penis remains, but let's not dwell on that.

There are some other published figures from a different FOI that suggest various 'completed consultant episodes' for 'sexual transformations' which includes a whole lot of different operative procedure codes and are probably over-counting, since they may not be strictly all genital surgery.

By my estimates I'd suggest ~1200 operations between 2004 and 2013. A total of ~2641 m2f bottom surgeries carried out in England in the 14 years since the GRA.

so. Make of that what you will. How many male people identify as transwomen in England currently?

300k? then >99% of them keep their penis.
200k? then 98.7% keep their penis.
100k? then 97.4% keep their penis

Perhaps we should include an allowance for the operations that happen in Thailand or privately?
What do we think? an extra 25%?
In that case, the most generous estimate is that with 3300 operations, on the smallest population estimate of 100,000 transwomen, 96.7% keep their penis.

Feel free to correct population estimates, or inflate those extra operations to derive percentages. This data is only for England.

Invisible1234 Do you have the source for the data above please?