Need some urgent stats

[NotZenEnough]

Meeting a friend tomorrow morning who works for grauniad. The GRA TRA topic will come up and I'd like to give the impression I know what I'mtalking about. Ish. I have half an hour now to do a bit of research on the following but was wondering if anyone has any info to hand regarding:
1)How many children medically present with gender dysphasia pa at the mo?
2)What type of increase is this? Think 7000% increase in bio girls presenting but since when?
3)Is there a desistance rate?

4)Is there a differential between sexes?
5) is gender reassignment surgery free on NHS? Presumably lots of private clinics.
6) if proposed changes to GRA happen will it be legal to have women only spaces/meetings where we can exclude bio men w GR certs
7) how many transgender people are there in UK? Proportion TM/TW?

Thank you!!!

I would recommend you have a look at the
Transgender Trend website
www.transgendertrend.com/current-evidence/
The Evidence Base page of GIDS
gids.nhs.uk/evidence-base

Regarding how many trans people there are in the UK, we do not know for sure.

Additionally, who can tell with the definition of trans being so wide. But it's estimated at 1% by trans activists, compared to a tiny handful when the GRA was brought in.

Data on trans population

No major Government or administrative surveys have collected data by including a question where trans people can choose to identify themselves. Publicly collected data on trans people is virtually non-existent, though there is some evidence on attitudes towards trans people, for example in the 2006 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 50 per cent of people said they would be unhappy if a close relative formed a relationship with a transsexual person (Bromley et al., 2007) and in the Commission's Who Do You See? attitudinal survey in Wales, the figure was 47 per cent (EHRC, 2008).

At present, there is no official estimate of the trans population. The England/Wales Census and Scottish Census have not asked if people identify as trans and do not plan to include such a question in 2010. GIRES, in their Home Office funded study estimate the number of trans people in the UK to be between 300,000 - 500,000, defined as ‘..a large reservoir of transgender people who experience some degree of gender variance’ (Reed et al 2009) (2)

The absence of public data raises significant concerns for populating the Equalities Measurement Framework, in order to map the changing face of inequality for trans people. There are a number of important sensitive methodological and ethical issues that need to be addressed when collecting public data on trans people:

• We do not have a tested and agreed question on trans status, (as we do with sexual identity), to use in public data sources and it will take time before one is developed. Instead, researchers have used a range of different terms and sometimes problematic definitions, that may not include all trans people, for example, 'someone who has had a sex change operation'. It will be important to develop a question, or questions, using appropriate definitions, that include all trans people.

- ^If there are small numbers of trans people in certain places or organisations, then data collection may mean that it is possible to identify who they are.

• Privacy, confidentiality and anonymity, are key concerns, amongst others, in building the evidence base for trans people.

We have relied on the good work of key individuals and organisations like: Press for Change, GIRES, a:gender, and the Scottish Transgender Alliance, among others, to develop the evidence base on trans people. However, it is vitally important that key public bodies and a wide range of organisations come together to support this work, and we move forward the appropriate collection of public data on trans people. Evidence is the key to making services reflect everyone’s experiences and meet their needs.

www.equalityhumanrights.com/en/anghydraddoldeb-traws-wedi%E2%80%99i-adolygu/introduction-review

Regarding the interaction with sex-based protections, this SAGES factsheet breaks it down well

sages.org.uk/

The 1% population figure is extrapolated to the UK population from a Dutch study I think?

You may also want to have a look at this article- it’s long but it goes into detail about finding, and sets some of the stats straight.,
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/womens_rights/3328210-Follow-the-money-who-is-funding-the-US-transborg

The article has stats showing that far from being the most in danger, transwomen are in fact less likely to be killed or subject t to violence than any other group.

^hat’s not a typo. It really is 27. The number of total murders in the US in 2016? 17,250, and disproportionately trending black and male. 27 is 0.15% of murders in the US. In terms of figures, the Williams Foundation did a survey and estimated the number of trans people at 0.6% of the US population. The US population is estimated at 325 million at time of writing, which results in a figure of 1.95 million trans people across America.
We’ll take 1.95 million Americans. If we figure how many trans people are victims of murder a year as a percentage, that figure is 0.0013%. Per capita, that’s a ratio of 1.3 trans people murdered per 100,000. The murder rate of women in the US is triple that, and of men, quadruple. Even with an extremely conservative estimate of 0.1% of the US population (or 325,000 trans people), we have a murder rate of 8.3 per 100,000. The murder rate of Chicago is twice that conservative figure at 16.02 people murdered per 100,000. In terms of gross numbers — that’s 11,535 murders of male Americans, and 3,292 murders of female Americans in 2017. 27 is small potatoes. That is not a murder epidemic — in fact it’s a murder rate per capita lower than Canada. It certainly doesn’t mean that there’s an ‘epidemic of transphobic violence’. That’s not something to campaign about — you’ve got it better than literally everyone else. Even if we use the Human Rights Campaign estimate of 750,000 trans people, which is half the 0.6% number, we get a murder rate of 2.7 per 100,000. That’s not a high murder rate. That’s lower than every other demographic in the US.
There are more bad statistics though. That same article tells us that “globally 1,700 transgender murders have been reported, in the past seven years, according to Arcus data” [emphasis mine].
Your eyes immediately drift to the ‘1,700’ figure, and don’t see the 7 years, do they? That’s why I bolded it. If we take the 0.6% estimate of trans people in the US and apply it globally to a population of 7 billion people, we get 42 million people. 1,700 divided by seven years gives us a grand total of 242 murders a year. That amounts to 0.003 murders per capita of trans people, worldwide, every year. That’s definitely not an epidemic. In fact, that’s a global murder rate lower than every other category on earth. The murder rate per capita of unicycle-riding clowns is probably higher. To #StopTransMurders would be to eliminate the homicide of an entire group of people, which no nation has been able to accomplish. Ever.
Maybe you think 42 million trans people on this earth is too big a number. So, we’ll make the figure 5 million people. A murder rate of 242 per year of a group of 5 million people is still a per capita rate of 4.84 — roughly similar to the US overall murder rate of 4.7. And that’s with a hugely conservative number that I literally pulled out of thin air. All these figures say the same thing — there is no trans murder epidemic ^

You may also wish to invoke The Encyclopaedia ROwannica @ROwantrees - sorry for atting you RO, but you are the best at this!

6) if proposed changes to GRA happen will it be legal to have women only spaces/meetings where we can exclude bio men w GR certs

Technically, but it's a much higher bar than other males without GRC.

how many transgender people are there in UK? Proportion TM/TW?

This would depend on age. Females overrepresented in the very young, the reverse when you get into middle age.

How can you exclude TW with GRCs when you can't ask for a GRC?

This is probably too late, but I thought I'd send it you anyway, for your next meeting.

1)How many children medically present with gender -dysphasia- dysphoria (or gender incongruence or gender identity disorder) pa at the mo?

last three years:

2017/2018 1806 female 713 male Total 2519
2016/2017 1400 female 616 male Total 2016
2015/2016 929 female 290 male Total 1219

Figures for 2017/18 referrals

From this June 2016 Guardian article: There are just over 15,000 people who are gender identity patients in the UK – roughly 12,700 adults and 2,700 adolescents or children.

Plus 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 referrals that's 7235 children in total

2)What type of increase is this? Think 7000% increase in bio girls presenting but since when?

It's been an over 4000% increase in 10 years.

3)Is there a desistance rate?

Originally the desistance rate was shown to be about 80%.

A child is 1000 times more likely to be homosexual than trans, and many children referred to gender clinics are homosexual children who eventually reconcile with their bodies.

This reconciliation happens when the first big flush of puberty hormones hits which is why puberty blockers were not routinely given before puberty set in. This was to allow the reconciliation to happen.

Puberty blockers given too early prevent this natural process from occuring. You cannot cure transsexualism, therefore delaying puberty blockers to get to this point will not stop transsexual children from being transsexual, but it allow merely gender dysphoric children to overcome their dysphoria.

The delay does allow some of the early body changes to take place, but it prevents iatrogenic* harm to the vast majority of gender dysphoric children who are not transsexual.

*harm caused by medical intervention

4)Is there a differential between sexes?

Yes. A huge one. Of existing transsexuals, 75% are male. Of self-identified trans people the vast majority is male. I will explain why in a second.

There are two distinct and mutually exclusive types of transsexuals.

Type 1: Early onset aka homosexual transsexuals aka transkids

Sex-distribution

Pre puberty the ratio is slightly skewed in favour of males. This is hypothesized to be because tomboys are more acceptable than feminine boys in early childhood

During and after puberty, slightly more females are diagnosed than males as this is the point where the female body develops very visible signs of being female (esp hips and breasts).

This balances out the sex distribution so that until recently, about forty years worth of empirical evidence showed, by age of 18, the ratio is roughly 1:1 (but slightly skewed in favour of males sth like 1.06:1).

50% of transkids are post-op by 20
An extremely high percentage of the rest are post-op by 25.
Unless medical reasons prevent surgery, transkids usually fully transtion to post-op stage and are highly likely to pass entirely as the opposite sex.

However, currently we are seeing an unprecedented level of an imbalance between the sexes, which depending on the country you look at seems to show a ratio in favour of females ranging from 1:2 to 1:7. The UK shows three girls being referred for every one boy.

Even some experienced gender dysphoria experts are starting to raise concerns about this increase, because it directly contradicts over 40 years of empirical ie data-based evidence. That's why there is now a hypothesis of a Rapid Onset Gender Dysphoria (ROGD) involving children who suddenly develop gender dysphoria during or after puberty without having ever displayed signs of GD before puberty.

There is also a known phenomenon of "tucutes" or "transtrenders". These are children who come out as trans because they consider it to be cool. This is not a recent development, as these children have always existed. They normally grow up to be quite gender conforming non-trans adults.

Currently various explanations are floating around about the alarming rise of girls being referred:

-social contagion (they're tucutes or transtrenders)
-early onset not noticed by parents (which leads to the condition being missed)
-an unprecendented phenomenon of vast numbers of female Type 2 transsexuals for reasons unknown

to be continued