Fake stats - transgender life expectancy

[pisacake]

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans_woman#Violence_towards_trans_women

"Trans women are often faced with discrimination in the form of violence. In 2016, 22 transgender people were killed in the United States due to fatal violence, the most ever recorded in one year. Many[specify] of these cases found their deaths to be direct results of an anti-transgenderism bias.[18] Furthermore, in 2009, 11% of all hate crimes towards members of the LGBTQ community were directed towards trans women.[19] Due in part to this anti-transgenderism bias, including homicide and suicide risks, the life expectancy of a trans woman of color is only 35 years old, whereas the average life expectancy in the United States is over 78 years old.[20]"

This is cited to [20] Pittman, Trav. "Four Years to Live: On Violence Against Trans Women of Color." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 24 Nov. 2015. Web. 21 Apr. 2017

However, strangely they don't link to the article, which is easily found:

www.huffingtonpost.com/trav-pittman/trans-woman-of-color-4-years-to-live_b_8637038.html

"The statistic said the average life expectancy for a trans woman of color is 35. As an otherwise healthy TWOC who turned 31 this year, this tragicomic countdown to my imminent death at least warranted further investigation.

It took some poking until I found the statistic’s apparent source — this study of 594 LGBT murders in the Americas (as in North and South and the Caribbean) from a 15-month period starting in January 2013. Nearly half of the victims were trans women of color, and the life-expectancy statistic was an apparent extrapolation of that data."

So this IMMEDIATELY contradicts the claim in the Wikipedia article, which refers to 'the United States', as opposed to 'the Americas'.

This links here:

www.oas.org/en/iachr/lgtbi/docs/Annex-Registry-Violence-LGBTI.pdf

where it says

" In this regard, the IACHR has received information that the life expectancy of trans women in the Americas is between 30 and 35 years of age. The Inter-American Commission is particularly concerned about the young age of trans victims. According to the data collected, approximately 80% of trans persons killed were 35 years of age or younger"

So it 'has received information' yet does not reveal the source of the information. And the 80% of trans persons killed being 35 years of age or younger is not particularly surprising. Most homicide victims of all categories are under 35.

It however does not tell you anything about life expectancy - it's possible for 100% of homicide victims to be under 35 yet life expectancy to be healthy.

The Huffington Post quotes the same report today:

www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/uruguay-senator-michelle-suarez_us_59f0ee5ee4b043885914e39e in quoting the new transgender Senator in Uruguay

"Michelle Suarez, Uruguay’s first transgender senator, is already considered elderly. She has made it to 34 - a rarity in a country where transgender people tend to die young.

“In Uruguay, a citizen has a life expectancy of more than 70 years but trans women have a life expectancy of 35"

Pink News directly claims that because most transgender murder victims are under 35, therefore the life expectancy of transgender people is 35. www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/12/09/the-average-latin-american-trans-woman-will-die-before-turning-35/

It's claimed here that is a specific problem in Brazil where trans people are murdered, and a group there claims a life expectancy of 30. www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/04/brazil-targeting-trans-people-impunity-150413210248222.html However that figure doesn't appear necessarily to be based on any solid fact. However clearly if there is an epidemic of transphobia in Brazil (and that seems to be the case), it isn't particularly useful to quote (fake?) stats from there for other countries.

This from Fair Play for Women

fairplayforwomen.com/trans-murder-rates

This is also from Fair Play for Women - about violent transwomen offenders who, strangely, have the same offending rate as men....

fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-violence-never-happens

Has anyone tried comparing the average age of BAME female murder victims with this? Or females generally? Or males?

As you can see from the fairplayforwomen article, the murder rate in Central and South America is nearly 12 times higher than that in North America. You can see why someone who wants to mislead would mix these two stats together.

There's a clear need for proper studies to produce reliable evidence. But anyone or any institution who would be motivated to do this would just see hideous reputational risk.

As far as I am aware (haven't got a link though but someone explained it to me once) some of those misleading life expectancy figures may have been taken from a sample of HIV positive trans prostitutes in Brazil. I think they are conflating two different issues. There are many many TW in Brazil. Although the murder rate is very high (for everyone) they don't all get murdered. But most are prostitutes.

One stat I read suggested there are around a million transwomen in Brazil

There were 14,000 AIDS-related deaths in 2016 for ALL Brazil. www.avert.org/professionals/hiv-around-world/latin-america/brazil

Even if ALL of the AIDS deaths were of transwomen, it still doesn't add up to a life expectancy of 35. And the murder rate doesn't either.,

I think the sample was allegedly extrapolated to the rest of the population in the same way as Mermaids' made out a survey of 27 trans people meant that 48% of all trans people have attempted suicide.

TBF I'd guess that a transgender individuals life is shorter - I'm pretty sure long term use of cross sex hormones isn't great for you.

Sorry for bumping an old thread. My lecturer has rolled out the TW of colour only have a life expectancy of 35 in America stat and I wanted to discuss it and I'm struggling to find accurate facts.

This article looked legit and then I saw this at the end of the article.
Transgender activists in the US often cite a life expectancy of early thirties to mid-thirties. I have not been able to verify the number but I am using 31 because a local activist used this number.

#journalism.

www.consumerhealthfdn.org/2018/02/05/hidden-inequity-life-expectancy-transgender-women-color/

Also cited by Paris lees, so again, not reliable as such. Although interesting article from Paris who is apparently terrified to be a tw in public but also claims to be afraid of men when she goes out on the pull because she wasn't raised that way so cis women should stfu. Not sure that you can be both things there Paris, terrified, but not terrified but also women are pathetic for worrying about violence?

As the OP noted the link providing this information bases the info on the ages of people murdered NOT the ages of people who died in total. It also doesn't provide any info on TM as it is difficult to do so apparently. As the majority of murder victims fall into that age bracket it would be safe then to say that all Americans have a life expectancy of less than 40.

^In this regard, the IACHR has received information that the life
expectancy of trans women in the Americas is between 30 and 35 years of age.^

Received from who or where?

obviously collecting accurate statistic about transwomen and men would mean we didn't have to pick numbers from thin air but that's transphobic.

www.oas.org/en/iachr/lgtbi/docs/Annex-Registry-Violence-LGBTI.pdf

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/22/epidemic-violence-transgender-people-experienced-stonewall

but also claims to NOT* be afraid of men when she goes out on the pull because she wasn't raised that way so cis women should stfu.

Science

This may help:

herriotts.wordpress.com/2018/05/12/life-expectancy-of-mtts/

Thank you for that Jacky. I'm somewhat concerned that my lecturer seems to be using Tumbler as the basis of their lecturers. It was the feeling I got along tbh and I'm not impressed that this person is spoon feeding nonsense to 18 year olds.

There was something published that said there was a high murder rate for transwomen in USA, but once you accounted for the proportion who were also in the sex trade it was probable that the sex work was the problem.
There may also be a problem with the drugs transpeople take reducing life expectancy

See here www.oas.org/en/iachr/reports/pdfs/violencelgbtipersons.pdf

"Some Latin American organizations report that the average life expectancy of trans
women in the region is as low as 35 years of age, or even less.772 In this regard, the
IACHR has noted that while it seems that gay men of all ages are targeted, in the
case of trans women, it is mostly younger trans women who are victims of
violence. The IACHR has expressed concern about the young age of trans victims of
killings and other acts of violence. According to the data collected, 80% of trans
persons killed were 35 years of age or younger"

Footnote 772

"Exact figures vary according to sources and countries. See, among others: IACHR, Hearing on Trans Persons'
Right to Identity, 144th Period of Sessions, March 23, 2012; IACHR, Minutes of Meeting of Experts on Violence
against LGBTI Persons in the Americas, Washington DC, February 25-25, 2012; REDLACTRANS, La Transfobia
en América Latina y el Caribe, 2009, p. 63; [Argentina] Instituto Nacional contra la Discriminación, la
Xenofobia y el Racismo (INADI), Políticas inclusivas para el colectivo trans, 2013; [Guatemala] Organización
Trans Reinas de la Noche, REDLACTRANS, IGLHRC, Heartland Alliance and The George Washington University
Law School International Human Rights Clinic, Human Rights Violations of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual,and
Transgender (LGBT) People in Guatemala: A Shadow Report, March 2012, p. 16; [Uruguay] Ministerio de
Desarrollo Social, Políticas públicas y diversidad sexual: Análisis de la heteronormatividad en la vida de las
personas y las instituciones. Informe final, June 2013, p. 135. In a 2005 study conducted in Argentina
analyzing the death of 420 trans persons (travestis), 70% of them were between 22 and 41 years of age at
the time of their death. Berkins, Lohana, “Travestis: una identidad política” in Pensando los feminismos en
Bolivia, Conexión Fondo de Emancipación, 2012, p. 224"

Nothing there suggests anything other than 'most homicide victims are aged under 40'. But that's likely to be true for any group.

There doesn't seem to be any data on transgender life expectancy at all. I suspect what you could do is adjust the general life expectancy down for risk factors such as homicide (for sex workers - doesn't appear to apply more generally) and HIV (much higher among transwomen)

This is not about transwomen

www.politifact.com/rhode-island/statements/2015/may/31/rebecca-quigley/does-becoming-prostitute-mean-youve-only-got-about/

But it very neatly dispels the self same logical fallacy.

As noted there a prostitute may have a 1% chance of being murdered in her life time. And if she is murdered at 30 rather than living to 80 then that's (80-30)*1% = six months off her life expectancy due to murder.

It's likely that prostitutes have lower relative life expectancy than that due to things like drug use, poor health, etc. But clearly the threat of murder is itself not a big factor in actuarial life expectancy.

And btw if you look at life expectancy between rich and poor there's already a huge gap, e.g. 7 years between Manchester and Kensington & Chelsea.

You'd expect middle class transwomen such as Caitlyn Jenner or Jane Fae to have middle class life expectancy, and you'd expect poor transwomen in the Brazilian favela to have Brazilian favella life expectancy.

But there doesn't seem to be any reason to believe that transwomen have significantly lower life expectancy than others, except in respect of HIV.

This relatively recent study of MSM

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3093261/

found that the HIV-related death rate among MSM was 157* higher than men who did not have sex with men.

Note however that the actual number of HIV deaths in the study was quite small (25 deaths), so to come up with very reliable numbers you'd need a vast study.

So the risk to TW would seem to be not from murder or suicide but from anal sex (given that receptive anal sex has 20* the transmission rate of receptive vaginal sex, and if they are also giving then they will pass that on very easily) . However note that when taking PrEP HIV transmission is all but impossible

So MSM, including non-op TW, are at base high risk from HIV, but in functioning health care systems that may not be such an issue any more.

I believe for example in Thailand there is cheap PrEP for TW sex workers.

Obviously 'lesbian' TW are not going to have any kind of elevated HIV mortality.

I don't know what the HIV transmission is like for post-op TW but I would guess it's high, so post-op TW sex workers may be at high risk.

This claim is based on bad maths. Or bad faith. Or both.

That the average age of a murder victim belonging to a particular group is 35, does not mean that the average life expectancy of that group is then lowered to 35 as well.

You can tell from all these articles that this is what they've done, because every single one using that stat then refers to the average age of a murder victim (if they explain it at all).

And all you need to suggest just how wrong this stat is, is knowledge about onset. While homosexual transsexuals transition early, on average in their early to mid twenties, non-homosexual transsexuals (aka late-onset aka AGP) transition in their mid forties to mid fifties. There are many, many more late-onset TS than early-onset ones. It is statistically therefore almost impossible for the life expectancy of the entire group of males identifying as trans to be 35.

Late-onset transsexuals are unlikely to be in prostitution, which is of course dangerous whether you're male or female.

As a PP explained, prostitutes even in the UK have a much higher murder risk than all women, but that has a much smaller effect on their overall life expectancy. Once you take STDs into account, addiction and malnutrition, I'd expect their overall life expectancy to be measurably lower compared to all other women though.

I know a data point of one doesn't make much of an argument, but I'm a 66 year old transwoman in extremely good health without being a health nut. I eat little (small veggie meals usually once a day, though sometimes twice, and a protein meal once a week), I don't exercise much, am near my target weight (65kg) while being fairly tall (about 6ft). I first started to transition in my late teens/early 20s, but stopped after some years when I fell in love with a girl. I restarted transition a bit more than a decade later, when I was in my 30s and became post-op a few years after that. So I've already beaten the (fake) stats twice.

This small Swedish study of a few hundred trans people, over the period 1973-2003, gives a much more encouraging picture:
journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016885

The article has a graph of survival rate of the participants compared to cis people matched for age and other characteristics. If you extend the vertical scale down to zero you can see transitioning doesn't really have a dramatic effect. Though, even in Sweden, suicide is still the biggest factor.

Hopefully someone will make a better study of this. In the meantime, I suggest being careful to do what you can to avoid homophobes and transphobes. They represent a peculiar threat to us. If you must deal with them, do what you can to de-escalate tensions.

I'm lucky though. I live in a country community in Australia where I'm accepted. I've never been sure how many know about me. (I've never mentioned it to anyone, and on the one occasion someone asked me I pretended I didn't hear. I am pretty deaf, so that was easy.) I don't dress femininely at all, I don't wear any makeup, and my hair is short. Everybody knows me as a science and computer geek, and I have a reputation for helping people whenever I can.

As for suicide, my best advice is: read science. It is incredibly uplifting, and not the boring or difficult thing most people think it is. Get "New Scientist" magazine. It's a weekly publication, is extremely easy to read, and always leaves me happy about the world (you might want to skip the first couple of news pages though, which can be a little depressing). Also, the internet has heaps of uplifting information. I like to watch Isaac Arthur's videos on YouTube -- they reset your perspective to make personal problems insignificant. And there are lots of other fun things like SciShow, CGP Grey, Singing Banana, Numberphile, Kurzgesagt, and much more. Stay away from upsetting things and for goodness sake keep completely away from religion. It is the most dangerously soul-destroying thing there is, even when well-meaning practitioners are genuinely trying to help. Treat it like the poison it is. Get a dog, or cat, or bird, or even a fish. Animal company makes people happier and increases their health. Treat him or her as your friend and talk to them, but not as a slave. The more equal the relationship the more benefit both receive.

Learn about the science of happiness:

• keep a happiness diary to note down good things, thus enlarging them in your memory;
• gratitude is very powerful, so make a ritual each night to list in your mind several things you're grateful for;
• genuinely help others (the more unselfishly done, the greater the pleasure, because as a social species we're wired to get rewards of happiness by helping others);
• bright light helps some people (doesn't affect me);
• see things in a positive way (I make a game of it where I'm proud of my ability to invert bad things turning them into positives);
• notice when you achieve things and each time, no matter how small, you'll get a jolt of pleasure;
• make sure you get enough sleep;
• exercise is supposed to help, though it doesn't for me;
• watching or reading comedies (laughter is an amazing medicine);
• most importantly, DON'T SEEK happiness. Trick it into coming to you. It is like that tip-of-the-tongue feeling when you're trying to think of a particular word. The harder you try for it the further it moves from your reach.

One last bit of advice: resist the temptation to judge yourself through others' eyes.

• Firstly, hurtful people are broken. Pity them, don't hate them -- anger far too easily brings depression.
• Secondly, you don't really know what other people think. There was a brilliant episode of the TV show "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" titled "Earshot" in which Buffy stops a suicidal boy who believes everybody thinks bad things about him, but in this episode she can hear thoughts and tells him they're all too tortured by their own self-perceived shortcomings to give him much attention. And so it is with us. It is far too easy to become drawn into a vortex of destructive self-critical judgement instead of just living your life.

Stay well sweeties.