Really pissed off about reporting of crime figures

[EvilAntsAndMiasmas]

The crime figures out today show that crime is falling in all areas, except in sex crimes where it has RISEN by 8%. This is being explained without question as being due to "increased confidence" in the police.

Yes, in the year where we saw reports about the police's total failure to listen and investigate serial rapists John Warboys and Kirk Reid, it makes perfect sense that we would all feel so much more confident in the police

The idea that there might actually be more rapes and assaults going on is not being countenanced anywhere AFAIK.

Can you imagine this being allowed to wash with an increase in burglaries? Or arson?

or the other possibility: that the police are making more effort to record them properly rather than putting off women who turn up at the police station wanting to report a sex crime wherever possible.

If there's been a sudden sharp rise, as opposed to a smooth-even-if-accelerating one, I think this is the most likely explanation.
If the rise is smooth, however, I agree that increased actual crime is more plausible than rise in confidence.

You've got to look at all crimes so it is true that crime is falling but you are never going to get a situation where every single crime falls.

I'm not sure there are more rapes and sexual assaults happening - it seems more likely that people are reporting more often.

Also, burglary and anti social behaviour have been proactively targeted of late so there has been a concentrated effort to reduce that sort of crime. The Police target what the public wants them to.....more publicity on sex crimes is therefore needed.

I have to say that I agree with seth on this, but I can also understand why the reporting itself annoys you.

I haven't had a chance to look at the papers in any detail today - where do these crime figures come from?

I know that there were recent changes in the BCS - British Crime Survey in which respondents completed details relating to sex victimisation on their own on a laptop (rather than the researcher asking them in person and then using a laptop) which could lead to huge spikes in figures due to the security that a truly anonymous response allows.

The ones I was looking at were the police figures, although I think the BCS is out as well.

Hudd - sorry that wasn't my point. I haven't got a problem with them pointing out that crime has fallen overall, of course. I was just giving the background.

Link here

It's an annual report so not very easy to tell whether it was a sudden rise or not. Was at some comments from the police here:"Commander Simon Foy suggested more women were coming forward partly because of greater confidence in police but also because cases such as that of Worboys prompted greater awareness."

I just cannot believe that the reporting is going up. The idea that they are recording it better is more likely, but surely the idea that crime is going up in this area is not to be discounted?

oh now that is very interesting Hockeypuck.

such a change in reporting method could make a huge difference.

I have such distrust in statistics, because they can be made to say pretty much anything you like. Two recent articles in the Daily Mail and BBC online both discussed knife crime and used pretty much the same statistics to back up completely different reports, one that knife crime had a huge spike and another that it had been stable for the last ten years.
The BCS method changes will, in my opinion, make a huge difference to the victimisation rates in my opinion. For example if someone was asked by a male reporter about incidences of sexual or domestic violence then the under-reporting even in a victim survey would, I imagine, be massive. But sitting in front of a laptop in a self completion survey may result in a more accurate model.

We are discussing this in terms of women's sexual victimisation - but I'll be very interested to see if there is an increase in reported male sexual victimisation in the BCS, as I imagine the researcher-effect may be even greater in those circumstances.

Are these figures rapes against women or rapes against men and women

Good point Stewie, would be good to see their figures.

I assume both frazzell.