What percentage of people will come to my wedding?

[Hopskipjumping]

Planning on getting married in two years time but booking it now. We are struggling however as the venues ask for a certain number of guests depending on the month we get married.

Winter months are a minimum of 60 guests, summer are a minimum of 100. Im really not sure how many will realistically come.

We could invite 100 people although quite certain atleast 5 wont be able to come for various reasons. Then there are some family who are single and therefore we have invited them and a plus 1 out of courtesy although not sure if they will obviously bring a plus 1 or not, given that they don't have a partner (at the moment and assuming this will still be the case at the wedding).

Not sure whether to book a winter month (march or October) incase we don't have a 100 people so would be a waste of money?

Im your experience how many people don't come to the wedding?

Also we wanted to invite about 40 people to our evening do, but the venue is 1 hour away. We would put transport there and back and there is the option to stay overnight (£85 for a double room). But im thinking that an hour may be too far for evening guests? Any opinions

Congrats on your wedding!

What's your preference, summer or winter? Don't opt for winter just because the minimum number the venue requests is lower.

I appreciate some venues need to request minimum numbers but it sounds like this specific venue isn't 100% right for you - unless you really don't mind when you get married.

You don't want to be stressed about meeting the minimum number you need for that specific deal/package. In my experience things can change in a heartbeat; people pass away, get pregnant, lose their jobs, start new jobs all between invites going out and the day of the wedding. So there's lots of potential reasons why some end up not being able to attend - but don't let this rule your judgement!

I think a standard rule of thumb for any event is to expect 80% turnout - But it's all relative - small weddings with immediate family for example are more likely to get a 100% (or near enough) turn out; if you're inviting 150+ a mix of people you're really close with and others not as much you can expect more 'can't make it' RSVPs.

Why don't you write out a list of 'definites' that you are almost certain will definitely come - especially with 2 years notice; see what that number is and decide from there.

Good luck!

Congrats! I read it was between 5% and 15% but I think a lot depends on;
a) which day if the week you chose ,
b) school holidays ( very important if their are lots of families or teachers likely to be invited)
c) ease/ popularity of destination
d)how many you invite in the first place.

I agree with DressDrama that smaller weddings tend to have higher attendance levels. We invited 50 ( expecting 49-45) and have only had 3 refuse with 3 others people specifically requesting plus ones.

I think an hour away is a big ask but I 'm confused by the numbers. Most people have less at the ceremony and food after and then more for the causal evening do. Are you inviting 40 extra or only 40?

I think the more notice you give people the more likely they are to come too...
My cunning plan for the cousins I don't like is to only give them two months notice (to the wedding just after Christmas in a foreign country)...

Not sure about the percentage turnout, but if you don't have the minimum number of guests that the venue requests, don't you just pay for the minimum (say 100) even if you don't have that amount (say 90)? I know it feels like a waste of money, but just see it as the cost of the venue etc. rather than lost places!

freemantle not so much now. We are inviting 94 adults and 26 kids to the whole day and 14 to the evening. Relatively common now

We got married on a Saturday, out of holiday season. We had about about 200 in total of which about 50 ish were at night.

Our reception was also about an hour away but we ran buses for evening guests as well as day guests.

Almost everyone came. I think we had about 5 declines all from relatives unfortunately too elderly to travel.