risk of freezing rain tomorrow. (sat 14th)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I just wanted to highlight the potential still exists for freezing rain for those in northern england and Scotland tomorrow afternoon and evening. No real details and probability is fairly low BUT it is such a serious weather event when it does happen, that I feel flagging it is a wise thing.

Those who got freezing rain in March in southern England will remember how just a cm or so of freezing rain caused some very dangerous driving issues and brought branches down. Remember freezing rain is not hail - it falls as water and freezes on contact with surfaces instantly.

Tomorrow's event if it happens could be very nasty, with high winds and lots of precipitation forecast. If it were to fall as freezing rain then I would expect travel disruption and the potential for power supply interruption.

Don't cancel plans based on this post but please do just keep an eye on things. If the temperature is below 0 and it is raining, then it's a worry.

The met office still say that freezing rain is likely.

We have heavy winds and some rain here in the NW at present it’s 1 but feels colder. Trying to decide if to drive to Staffordshire for family do at lunch time.

In fact, I've already seen a report of freezing rain in Powys over higher ground.

I'm trying to pin down more helpful timings and locations for people about , but I'm afraid I don't have the expertise.

We have snow here already in Glasgow. I have no idea how slippery the roads are but I'm not taking the car out to experiment. I hate the snow and winter so much.

Hopefully the brighter, milder weather tomorrow will melt it all away.

Please don’t feel pressured OYBBK it must be an impossible job! Your (and Gloria’s) weather threads are the best weather reports and give us all useful information, so thank you.

Does the severity of the weather warning give an indication of how likely it is to happen or just the severity of the event if it does?

Also, if I am of the border of the amber warning does that mean it is less likely to happen here?

People can use the radar here if you turn 'weather type' on then it will show any freezing rain in purple.

Very good question Elfina :) If you compare the met office matrixes for the amber and yellow regions you can see that this time the answer to your question looks to be both.

Ah, brilliant, I think we might have rearrange some plans. Thank you OYBBK

Elfinablender ~ If you look on the metoffice warnings page here and scroll down the written information bit about each warning area, it has a 'further details' section, click on that and you'll see it includes a 'warning impact matrix.' The matrix gives an idea of the impact and how likely it is to happen, if you're in the warning area.

Or what OYBBK said!

Thanks Gloria

Thanks for the warning! Looks all quiet here in North Lincs at the minute so I guess it might be with us later on.

Gloria, that's very funny!!

I’m struggling to understand it all. I’m supposed to be travelling from Penrith to Leeds today and thought we’d be ok, then worried, then thought it would’ve ok. I’ve cancelled now. That’s the right call then?

Is it supposed to be any better tomorrow?

I guess it's worth remembering that even in the warning areas its probable that not all will see the freezing rain.

Keep an eye on the met office warnings page for updates www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-12-15

Also the link I gave to radar above.

If you are in an amber area. I'd just mentally go over where your power cut stuff is, charge phones and the like. With strong winds to gales expected, any ice sheathed power cables could struggle.

Tomorrow any ice or snow may linger but at least you'll know what you are dealing with then and the gritters will have had chance. Dont rely on them today, any rain that falls as normal rain first will wash away the grit.

I have only experienced freezing rain once about 20 years ago.It was horrendous - really scary - the car tyres had no grip whatsoever and cars were sliding and crashing everywhere. No idea how we avoided an accident. DH and I heard it on the forecast this morning and straightaway we both said ' remember 20 years ago...' I definitely won't venture out if the rain does freeze.

MsJane, while I generally tell people not to make decisions on what I say (I'm only an amateur) given the met office amber warnings, that's sensible.

cortex part of the issue is when people see rain and think it's ok, it must have warmed up. We saw that a lot in the March event. It was very surreal.

I'm supposed to be traveling up to Leeds today for a big event too, we're going by train so not driving but still feeling a bit nervous about it, we will need to get cabs in Leeds as it's not in the centre. I both do and don't want to cancel!

Oh crap. I'm meant to be driving from Blackpool to Sheffield today!!! What does everyone think??

dolly, make sure you have some supplies with you and have warm clothing in case it gets disrupted. Pay close attention to the train companies twitter feed for any service suspension.

What time Saturn?