Any early indications for a mild or severe winter in UK/Ireland yet?

[BiddyPop]

Calling all the weather experts here (probably mainly OYBBK!) - has anyone got any decent idea of whether this winter is shaping up to be mild like last year, or will it be a more severe, cold, possibly icy or snowy winter?

I am asking, partly as I am a Christmas nut and hoping for a white Christmas in our own home this year (Dublin), but also to get a good idea of whether to do a proper winter-preparedness job (including losing enough weight to fit my full-length, down-filled coat!) or just a regular ordinary seasonal change.

It certainly feels unseasonably cold and an early arrival of autumn here this week. But is that a potent for the coming winter or just a seasonal anomaly?

Hello Christmas Board Buddy

Hi Jersey!!

I guess the mention of Christmas and cold together put the frighteners on people. Or else they are all outside clearing the gardens unseasonably early as the leaves are already turning around us and I am having to wear a poloneck today!

It was frosty here in wales when I put the bins out very early this morning. I hope we have a freezing winter and lots of snow at christmas

Im going to get told off for saying that arent I ......

Not by me! I'm hoping for a freezing cold winter and lots of snow too.

But last time i said that i got told it was selfish to hope for that because of all the people who suffer

Not by me either! I want to get used to cold and snow before finally, FINALLY, going skiing in the spring (I have been trying to go since late teens - I turn 40 this winter and have most of the gear already - which was handy in the 2 recent "year of the big snow"'s!)

People won't suffer if they are properly prepared. They just don't think ahead, or even sensibly once bad weather does arrive, and just panic.

Ooh getting this in threads I am on as I want to know too!

It feels like winter already its so windy.

I was talking with my mum before saying im going to buy dd some long sleeve tops ect shouldnt need to buy any till the end of Sept. Shes got loads of summer clothes hardly worn , but its to chilly at the minute for dresses and shorts.

A proper summer and a proper winter is what I want

See here its still 16-20oC daily so not really wintery during the day.

It is cooler at night

I'm marking my place too, as I love the weather threads on here, and am fascinated by what might happen.

A while ago there was mention that it might be an El Niño year, so wondering if the weather gurus, OYBBK and Gloriasmud have any views on that and how it might affect outer winter.

I'm in the south east and it was lovely and sunny earlier but it's been so cold since about 2pm.

Is it too early in the year to have the heating on?

Im been fighting the temptation to put the heating on.

I don't really do seasonal forecasting but I have looked at El Niño recently. It looks like it is getting off to a bit of a late start and indications are that it will most likely be a weak one, perhaps moderate. El Niño tend to give colder drier winters in Europe, but the longer this one takes to get going the less of an influence it will have on our weather.

I think what we mustn't do is take this crappy end to August as an indication of what the winter will bring. I think we may get the traditional warm up in September. (I hope so!)

I have however been chainsawing more logs today, but that is more a reflection of last winter, in that I'm still able to pick up wood from all of the downed trees, rather than of what I think is to come.

I'm tempted to put my heating on too. There's a definite autumnal feel.

The air changed here (Fife) last Friday.