Will the horse prices calm down?

[Tinka2]

Hello,

I’m looking at the moment for a 14.2-15.2hh all rounder, fun but safe (same as everyone else!) and wondered if anyone had thoughts on whether the crazy current prices will calm down?

Is it better to wait?

Thanks!

Honestly not much.
It’s a massive supply issue. Over the last decade or so so many breeders have sold up as they couldn’t make any money, brexit has made importing, even from Ireland, quite difficult so supply of literally everything is bottlenecked. Even ex racehorses to an extent as terrible prize money in the U.K. means many English owners now have their horses based in Ireland or France.

Also, I’ll get flamed for this, no one learns to ride properly any more, 15 years ago I think you could say something that was generally a good egg but might pop a buck when excited was suitable for a balanced novice, now you’d have to say it’s quirky.
Everyone wants something that never bucks, never spooks, never gets a bit giddy in open spaces and frankly I think it’s unrealistic. And therefore types that are genuinely that safe are like gold dust and therefore fetch a fortune.
I don’t think something that pops a buck while XC or naps at the gate a bit if it a a bit sour in the school is an unsafe animal but many people will disagree…

So I guess I think my point is what do you think counts as safe? As if it is super quiet in heavy traffic alone, never ever ever bucks/rears/naps/gets forward in open spaces (don’t get me wrong pissing off with someone is insanely dangerous) because if it’s that, no, as the demand will always be so high and the level of work it takes to get a horse, even a badly put together cob is huge. While the general standard of riding is so bad (I’m not saying yours is but just as part of the wider picture) and riding schools keep closing down meaning more and more people are buying while very very novice the market for these very quiet animals will stay very strong.
Whereas the sports horse market actually has some real bargains at the moment as no one wants anything with any discernible quirk!

I agree with a lot of what @lastqueenofscotland has said. I'm casually looking at the moment, and I'm seeing super safe non quirky horses with horrible injuries, terrible conformation, or who are just plain unsound advertised for high 4 figures.
It's bonkers!

I learned to ride on quirky ponies (napping, rearing and the odd buck) so I don't mind something that needs a bit of work, but I think I'll end up waiting a while longer for the market to even out.

A super safe horse that never bucks or rears and is safe on the roads and is a generally nice person is worth it's weight in gold.

Raising any horse to an age where it becomes safe for a novice to ride takes years and a lot of money. Prices had fallen behind and I think they are now more realistic. High 4 figures will just about cover the basics of getting a horse to adulthood, but for anything else with talent I think buyers need to be more realistic. I have bred foals and just to get them to six months old costs a couple of thousand. Four years on and they can easily reach £10k in terms of my time and money. When I was a teenager, my first horse (a 15hh safe happy hacker for me coming out of ponies) cost £500. This represented a third of my annual salary (as a well paid graduate trainee) at that time. The equivalent salary now would be £25,000 so the same old horse should cost £6250 now. Seems about right.

I will add to LastQueen's post on the reason for the increase in demand that also it can be increasingly expensive and frustrating riding at riding schools as anything other than a complete beginner - lockdown exacerbated an existing trend where a lot of the smaller family run schools shut down or massively scaled down on particularly their bigger horses, and you are left now with massive commercial enterprises that are competition/exam centres alongside lessons for which they charge a small fortune, or smaller places that tend to find it more profitable to focus on children's riding - kids ponies are easier/cheaper to keep than big fit horses, and you can fit in plenty of lessons into a smaller space/with fewer staff, but that's no good to you if you are a taller adult wanting to progress your riding on more challenging horses...

I'm a massive advocate of people taking plenty of lessons at a good school for longer than they think they need before getting their own but I do sympathize, when you are being charged £50 an hour to plod around on a sluggish cob I can see the appeal of paying £100 a week for DIY livery and getting your own, but obviously the supply of horses suitable for these semi-novice riders hasn't increased, if anything it's decreased...

@maxelly I completely agree with you, I think with my no one learning to ride properly anymore comment should come the caveat that lots of riding schools are dreadful!
There’s no good ones near me, one has up to 11 riders in their tiny arena (I’d say 20x30?) and noone gets taught anything it’s just “canter on” “pop this jump”
Another the standard of teaching is good (one of the instructors there also does a day a month on our livery yard and she’s fantastic) but the horses are awful, literally everything is a dead to the aids cob, how can anyone go from that to something that isn’t sharp but is even just polite off the leg?!

I think land prices = selling up is an issue but also as is insurance/suing culture. You don’t get the wizzy ones or the ones that will tell you to f-off if you’re hanging off it’s face anymore really.

@lastqueenofscotland agreed, and while we're on the topic of 'things ain't what they used to be' (indulge us OP!), hacking out has also become a lot harder, while my kids were young I would think nothing of loading them, their naughty/silly ponies and novice friends up and spending a few hours pottering about the local area, providing you chose your place/time wisely (not cantering directly into the middle of the local shoot as we did once ) it was easy to find quiet lanes and bridleways where very little harm would be done if a pony had a 'moment' or someone fell off or whatever. Now there are fewer bridleways, those that are are more likely to run through built up areas/housing estates with associated hazards (out of control kids, prams, dogs, strimmers etc!) and there is much, much more traffic on the roads (and I may be being an grumpy old gimmer but drivers and especially cyclists seem to have no idea how to behave around horses any more!). So personally I wouldn't be comfortable hacking out with a fairly novice rider anymore unless they were on a really, really bomb-proof horse - and of course those cost a lot of money! There are quite few novice or nervous owners on my yard that only really potter around our own fields, so they are in the arena 90% of the time, and then I think this can create a bit of a vicious circle where the horses get school sour and start playing up, the owner gets more nervous about taking them out, horse gets even more nappy etc etc. 25 years ago I think those same horses and riders would have been happily out hacking most of the time, and perhaps would still have had the odd nappy moment or spook or whatever but it would have been an altogether less stressful event than when it happens on a busy road with heavy traffic thundering past and an audience gathering!

Oh agree. I grew up in a seriously remote area and could hack for miles and see no one.
Our hacking is either on lanes which while are quiet traffic wise are used by some huge farm vehicles. My mare is a saint with these but hates cyclists. The local bridleways are full of unruly dogs and kids on bikes. I livery on a working farm and if they are dry our farmer will let us ride round them but we are in the north west of England so that’s rare!

I’m moving house and looking at yards where I’m moving and even ones with access to good off road hacking involve having to cross busy roads etc.
Even a very quiet horse can get upset and need reassurance which a nervous rider can’t give them in those situations I find.

Thank you everyone for your comments, really helpful and interesting to hear your perspectives.

I’m not a complete novice as I’ve owned horses before but been out of it for a while, jobs and life not being very compatible with horses until now. I’ve gone back to lessons but its quite hard to progress on a ploddy pony in a 40 min lesson and the 1:1 bond you have with your own is missing.
I’ve looked for a loan or share but nothing suitable available anywhere near me and I’ve been burnt before with a loan.
Unfortunately there is a gap for those of us who have moved beyond weekly lessons at a riding school.

I think prices hardly ever go back down again and we’re probably too low for too long, maybe it will calm down a bit but these horses do take time to come through. I just bought a yearling to bring in but realise that is not for everyone. Also the hacking situation is so hard I agree, have bought inaccessible land on a bridleway as all the paddocks here are going for houses and paddocks attached to houses kept for a few sheep/ hay but no grass. @lastqueenofscotland people do expect the horse to do it for them far too much I agree. Really hard to make horses work I think in the modern world sadly

The wrong type of horses are getting bred by the wrong people and are getting dumped/abused while very average horses are going for 10-16k. I have just paid a lot for a gelding because he is beautifully mannered and well behaved, someone else put a lot of effort in to his training and I willingly paid for that.

Have to agree about hacking and the behaviour of car drivers and cyclists, I won’t hack out now unless on private land. Two big equestrian centres are up for sale near me and it’s becoming too expensive to own and ride for most people.

Car drivers are borderline psychotic nowadays.

Dd hacks up to a sand school near us and I drive there. She was hacking along the road with a huge flood puddle. She was carefully walking along the side when a car just sped through the middle, creating a huge wave, soaking dd and dhorse. Luckily dhorse is a sensible fellow but it could have been so much worse. Absolute bellend.

We're selling my daughter's 15.2hh at the moment (she's off to University). We're putting photos and video together but can't decide what to price her at. She's just turned 8 and has the potential to make a great eventer. My daughter's jumping her at 1.10m at the moment. Really sad to lose her as she's perfect in every way.

Has she done any affiliated stuff or does she have any results

@Entschuldigung if she’s got potential, a good competition record and has been ridden by a teenager safely, honestly I’d say around 12-15k in this market.

@Bryonyshcmyony No affiliated stuff.

We haven't been able to get out much but when we have she's been great (went to a few Clear Rounds). Hoping to go to a couple of competitions soon.

We only got her 2 years ago so my daughter was spending some time getting to know her before competing and then we were hit with lockdowns. Our trailer's been out of action and my car getting a bit old for towing so I've had to rely on a friend for transport which has set us back. I'm annoyed with myself for not sorting things like that out so we could have done more but it all costs doesn't it!

@lastqueenofscotland That would be amazing. No competition record though.

Hmm. If she's done nothing then 8-10k.

And she'd need niceish breeding for that. Is she safe on the roads and good to do in all ways?

@Bryonyshcmyony Thanks, that's really helpful. Yes, she's safe on the roads and good to do in all ways. I can't think of any issues with her at all, she's a dream.

[quote Entschuldigung]@Bryonyshcmyony Thanks, that's really helpful. Yes, she's safe on the roads and good to do in all ways. I can't think of any issues with her at all, she's a dream.[/quote]
Try 10k then - good luck! Sad when they need to move on

@Bryonyshcmyony Thank you, will give that a try. Really sad to sell. Wish my daughter could have had her when she was 14/15!

[quote Entschuldigung]@Bryonyshcmyony Thank you, will give that a try. Really sad to sell. Wish my daughter could have had her when she was 14/15![/quote]
Let us know how you get on!

We have a fantastic 15hh little horse who is very competitive at 80/90, he's my little pet, I love him. He's the nicest horse I've ever owned but dd is now 5' 9 and looks huge on him 😭😭😭 he's too nice to be a mum's hack unfortunately

I don't think it will calm down anytime soon,as previous posters have said.
Prices were so low for so long that serious breeders of quality horses just stopped breeding. There was no point. Add to that the boom in people thinking that they'll be working from home,Brexit ending the flow of cheaper Irish horses and it's a perfect storm.
We were looking for a new horse last September,and tried a couple of green ex racers for between 2-3k.Gave up looking over winter and bought a very green,low milage,7 year old 15.1 Irish sports horse for £3250. She'd barely done anything other than hack,but she's brilliant,and Dd2 is teaching her gridwork, poles ect.
DD1 had nothing to ride after her cob semi retired at 27. We saw a few horses, including a £6k bronker and an only just broken horse at the same price. I was starting to despair when we were offered a 16h 15yr old hunter on permanent loan. He's quirky,and you really need to ride him,but she's getting on well with him. We've been very lucky.

I agree with pretty much all that's said above, but also think the reason many riding school riders (and also pony club ones) aren't as good, is that many instructors are scared of really telling people what they're doing wrong, as many people don't want to hear it, and won't return.
I remember pony club rallies where we were absolutely shredded for hanging on a pony's mouth, flapping our legs, doing anything that could cause discomfort etc - and were made to do situps / run round the school / have a bit in our mouth while someone yanked it. Maybe a bit harsh, but we all learned very quickly! It was always explained why it was wrong, too. Now it's much more 'oh lovely, just try to sit a little stiller'.
I'm saying this as a mother of a pony club child, who at some points I've been so frustrated at the instructor not instructing (oh that lower leg position!!!). Thankfully there are some good instructors out there too, who aren't as concerned.

This thread really interests me.
I had my own pony as a teenager and used to love competing, but I quit when I went to university and now at 32, I'd love to pick it back up again.
I sold my pony for 2600 back then and he was extremely safe and a great showjumper in the right hands.
I had a little look the other day and was quite flabbergasted by the prices.

My problem is, as someone said earlier, is that I don't need lessons really. Might sound smug but I'm quite an advanced and experienced rider, I just haven't done it in a while. As a result, riding lessons on a plod would do nothing for me. I've tried. I'd need to buy or loan another and my confidence isn't great having not ridden 'properly' for years and years.
For that reason I'd have to pay a fortune, and that's a big commitment.