Birth Rates

[dalekwalker]

Hi,
I am very sorry to be a nuisance. I am a Secondary teacher and recently I came across the newspaper report about falling birth rates in the UK. As I am relatively new to the profession, I wondered whether this will cause jobs to be lost, if there is going to be a decline? Teaching is all I have ever wanted to do and so I don't know what else I could do job wise, if I lose my job.

Thank you and sorry for posting.

DalekWalker.

We have a significant drop coming in three years. It may mean redundancies if we can't retain our sixth form intake to bolster our year 7.

Oh my word - is this in your area or whole across?

I'm pretty sure the birth rate nationally drops - we have 223 in year 7 this year with 220 having left year 11, but I think we lose a form groups worth in 3 years.
It's common for the year groups to fluctuate

Thank you so much. Do you think jobs will be safe though? Apparently it is a gradual drop but I am worried now when you said its going to be significant.

Do you think I should start looking for alternative jobs? It has really worried me about the news story

No job is totally safe but I'm not worrying about it. I certainly wouldn't be looking for alternative jobs in advance of redundancies not yet announced.

I wouldn't worry too much at the moment. Birth rates do vary but it will depend on area and nothing is definite is it?

At the school I work at (state secondary) we have actually increased our pupil number in recent years. Used to take 240 per year, now it's 270. This year's timetable was tricky as despite a large, modern building, we are bursting at the seams!! Literally every available space is being used!

We could offer many more than 270 places based on applications, if we had space.

ITT hasn’t recruited enough trainees to replace all teachers leaving the profession for years, I doubt you’ve much to worry about with falling birth rates. Be more worried that you’ll be forced out once you’ve gained experience and become too expensive. Then there’ll be little you can do about losing your job.

@CarrieBlue

ITT hasn’t recruited enough trainees to replace all teachers leaving the profession for years, I doubt you’ve much to worry about with falling birth rates. Be more worried that you’ll be forced out once you’ve gained experience and become too expensive. Then there’ll be little you can do about losing your job.

And on top of this, it sounds like a big change might happen next year with ITT providers and it could mean fewer trainees going forward.

If there are redundancies don't worry yet. They haven't even been announced and you don't know who it would be.

Hi,
I just wanted to say thank you for all the advice and help I have been given with this. When I was younger, my dad was made redundant, and as a child, we lost the house and everything pretty much in the same month, so this is what triggers so much anxiety in me when I hear about falling birth rates.

I was also thinking that when I was a pupil in the 90s, even though births were less than they are now, teachers and schools were still busy, so surely teachers will still be around and needed?

Thank you again and sorry for being annoying.

You're not annoying. We'll tell if you get annoying 😉

If it helps, I was made redundant from a different industry last year and had a school job lined up within a couple of weeks of knowing I needed a new role, even though it was a tough year for applications in my area. I had the same anxieties but it worked out. What happened to your family is the extreme end of redundancies.

Even if you were made redundant (and given recruitment and retention issues, this is unlikely), there is still a need for supply teachers so there is a fall back even if not as secure. If you were intending to work only in the private sector, you would perhaps need to be careful about choice of school but I work in the independent sector in a very deprived area badly hit by covid and our year 7 numbers are significantly increased for September…,

Thank you so much for reassuring me and I know I might sound stupid and annoying all of the time, but after what happened with my parents when I was younger, I get very worried about it.

I was also wondering if the schools are closed again because of COVID again as they are saying in the news the cases have increased whether you think teachers will still be paid as normal?

Thank you again for everything.

We can't very furloughed because even if the buildings are closed, we're still teaching remotely.
I do know some independent schools furloughed some staff, but state schools couldn't.

Don't worry, if you're reasonably new to the profession you'll be cheap. Redundancy is a concern in any job role but sadly in teaching it's generally the old expensive teachers who face the chop...

Hi,
I am really sorry for being annoying again. I came across this newspaper article online, and I wondered if the situation looks better than it was first said?

I don't know what to think as one report said it was in decline and now record amounts.

I am worrying over it as my parents were made redundant when I was a child and remember how we lost the house pretty much instantly and worry about history repeating itself.

www.readingchronicle.co.uk/news/19511806.huge-rise-reading-births-amid-covid-baby-boom/

Thank you.

A baby boom now won't hit secondary for another decade.
School staffing can change quite a lot - but no job is ever entirely secure. I appreciate your concern but don't borrow trouble from the future.