The Fifteenth Republic - A Level and GCSE Results storm coming!

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mrs how do you end up with 2 classes for 5 students???

Cor blimey next year I have two classes with 26 in each...

Tapered adjustments are the ones size 6-15 where CAGs and the algorithm were applied. Let me see if I can find the snazzy graph.

@Piggywaspushed I wish I knew! The competitor school doesn't offer those subjects so it may be a recruitment tool (for 5!) but the playing field is not at all level. I had a class of 12 and one of 15 this year. That's more normal for us.

What was the source for that data Herc?

The ofqual report. t.co/K9Aix0zZj4

Great, will have a look now. Thanks.

My sixth form is small but the large groups of Maths and Economics got hit everything else seemed to sail through. They all have uni places eg Birmingham BBC

We have been stuffed in larger subjects too. In my subject the appear to have only looked at last years anomalous results and lowered a lot of our estimates to reflect that.
In my school the small class sizes are the mfls and music mostly. Plenty of physicists.

So, Branwen Jeffries on the BBC just peddled the line that teachers estimates are always very inaccurate!

Why won't this lie/myth about UCAS grades be squashed? It's even in the sodding 367 page booklet!

I think we should refuse to provide UCAS predictions next year.

They did some statistically very clever stuff to check their model using 2016/17/18 data vs 2019. Then used this to inform the 2020 model. So 2016 results have some influence over the model.

Aaand here is why prior attainment in your subject means sweet FA.

It is important to note that neither through the standardisation process applied this year nor the use of cohort level predictions in a typical year, does a student’s individual prior attainment dictate their outcome in a subject.

Measures of prior-attainment are only used to characterise and, therefore, predict for group relationships between students.

No, no need herc : I get it now. It is saying nearly 40% of film centres had so called 'tapered adjustment'.

I think we should start calling them UCAS "bids" not predictions. I've always thought it's a bit like bridge.

I teach Media Studies. Our one certain A pupil ( every piece of work over 2 years including mock) has been moved to an A. Their A in their other 2 subjects remain.We've never had an A* in media so I presume this is why they lowered it , even though it's only the second cohort of students for this exam board. So unfair. I hope they appeal.

MrsHerculePoirot I just read the explanation you posted and I think it underplays the importance of the ranking. Yes we might “give them all a B” but that’s not really relevant. We know the one we ranked 5th is going to be treated as the one who messed up on the day.

That's my eyesight! 46%!

How do they appeal that, thoughflump. That's what I don't get... it appears loaded against successful appeals. (Unless they have a handy valid mock , of course)

I do wonder if suddenly mocks will all be over marked next year! And then darkwader can moan about something else.

Darkwader can, in the words of angsty teenage boys, do one.

herc I don't get that PA at all. I know what PA is , of course, but I don't get how they calculated likely outcome on that since their projections seem so very very different from ALPs predictions, which are, after all, based on PA . Is it because ALPs are benchmarked nationally and these were per centre?

Will have to see what the do with my GCSE film class next week, given they had the best VA in the country last year... give em all 3s, no doubt.

VA has basically become irrelevant is how I read it, unfortunately.

@HipTightOnions

MrsHerculePoirot I just read the explanation you posted and I think it underplays the importance of the ranking. Yes we might “give them all a B” but that’s not really relevant. We know the one we ranked 5th is going to be treated as the one who messed up on the day.

Yes I know, but I think it helps to explain those initial headlines about how the CAGs were SO high compared to last year’s data. Also if you’ve only got 5 it hasn’t been changed to be fair! I’d just seen/heard a lot of non-teachers saying teachers were bad at grading/making it up/useless at knowing our students. Those in schools get it anyway, but I found quite a few non-teacher/school workers were asking about why teachers were predicting so high etc... and it seemed to make sense to them 🤷‍♀️

% was changed. It had to be 4 to not be changed...

Mansplainer told me.

5 was changed , I meant

I fear so, herc. My GCSE class may be doomed....

That said, there is only one year of prior data and it is very good , so God knows....

I'm trying to understand the PA but. Looks like they used it to determine the school grade distributions, but not used on an individual level at all.