No exams this summer

[noblegiraffe]

Blimey.

Waiting for more details about this.

@frippEnos

Thanks for reassurance but when did they do the NEA, because I think he did his in February and moved up from a 2 to a 3 in English and Maths.

He's been working his ass off since January so I really think he'd get 4s. Well Art and DT he got 6s and I think up to 4 in his Sciences.

I really think he'd get at least 4 in English, if not a 5 and a 4 in Maths.

I have no idea and am panicking! :(

Sorry completely rambling!!

We don’t sit in front of a list thinking:

Well they annoyed me so I’m giving them a crap grade. This absolutely does not happen. A good teacher knows, to probably within a 3rd of a grade what their students would get.

We mark exam papers and assess coursework too, so we do have a good oversight of how grades happen.

It wouldn't be unthinkable to reset the academic year to run in the calendar year. Most of Europe and perhaps US could do the same. Everything going on at the moment is unprecedented.

It wouldn’t be unthinkable with a lot if planning. But it would be unthinkable at the moment.

MrsElijah my ds is the same. He has had 3 years of health problems, was diagnosed with chronic fatigue syndrome in July, is finally starting to make progress with fantastic support from his A level teachers and wanted to prove to them and himself how well he could do. This just feels so wrong. He may end up in a better position as he had good predicted grades, but to him it's not real if that makes sense?

Is there even an official way to predict grades that has been used uniformly across all schools?

Dc's school is independent, so over the years they've done various base line tests, which are mainly used to measure whether pupils are achieving at a level with their ability. And I assume they are also used when they give targets and grades predictions.

Apart from the progress 8 measurements for ofsted I have no idea if there is even a workable system for predicting grades wholesale. Not that I doubt the ability of teachers to predict grades based on their professional experience, but I can't imagine exam boards issuing certificates based on the say so of individuals. Not to mention that would only work if every teacher with an exam year was an experienced subject specialist backed by a good slt.

So they won't do badly - even exams are norm referenced - a certain percentage get an A*, A etc taking into account their GCSE scores and the same can happen here.

Universities are trying to work out what the fairest thing is to do - they need students because of the income they get snd will go out of their way to try and get it right

And actually / while the situation is shit - it's a good lesson that education is about what you learn not about passing exams

There's a whole industry in predicting grades - it's what gives the schools the value added scores that makes the league tables.

The can use this to ensure that predictions are fair - look at the baseline plus the value added - on average is that what the school is saying the students will do - if not investigate - alter the predictions

This is absolutely doable :)

There's a whole industry in predicting grades - it's what gives the schools the value added scores that makes the league tables.

No it isn’t. What gives schools the progress scores is how their kids actually did on the exams compared to how every other kid in the country did in their exams.

There are no exams.

The ‘predicted grade industry’ work off KS2 SATs results. You can’t predict grades based on what kids got in Y6 - that’s ignoring 5 years of work. Their predicted grades are only ever accurate over a cohort. No use for individuals.

The old modular system was so much better as they would all have had half their A level already and predicted grades were more accurate. It’s a joke.

I’ve spent 2 years having taken in a failing department, busting a gut to get those kids to a good place. They have worked so so hard. Their NEAs are superb. All for what? A stab in the dark? How will a prediction ever be worth the same in an employer’s eyes than the real deal?

I've got a DD in year 11. She's taken it fairly well ( been on social media all evening), but wants to know what is happening and what to work on. I suggested that she could start with the reading list for A levels? She likes reading history books. And maybe do some art as she hasn't completely decided whether to do art A level or not. She had also planned to teach herself guitar over the summer so could start early. My other DD is year 12 so possibly has it harder as they will have to work independently for a term of A level work.

My daughter has been crying her eyes out. She’s been working so hard on her anxiety and studied so hard. And now, God knows

I know more about A Levejs than GCSEs but GCSE's are a good predictor of A Levels (which shouldn't be a surprise because of the norm referencing) and on fact in many cases were a) a better predictor than the old AS levels were and b) also a better predictor of how students did in their degrees than A levels in some cases.

Most universities are now recruiting rather than selecting and so will be happy to have students

The predicted grades in UCAS are often higher than the actual predicted grades - so not all students will get in

My daughter is in year 12 - I do worry about them

@pourmeanotherglass that's exactly what I suggested to my son in year 11. He's gutted, he knows his mocks and predicted aren't great and he's worked his butt off. His food practical went so well today after a weekend and 2 full trial runs. I'm heartbroken for him, however, he needs a plan and direction. I've asked if the teachers can't give that he approaches his college and asks if there is reading he can do in advance if studying (assuming of course they let him on, he needs 5 passes and only got 4 in his mocks) However he needs a plan, something to work and aim for

I don’t see another solution but a PP has already stated all her students are 9 and A*. I hope they were joking. That cannot possibly be right.

Is it likely they will award grades based on ks2 sats? That seems insane.

GCSE results are based (in average) on KS2 SATS. That's hiow schools work out target grades

A certain % get a 9 etc and that is altered depending on the SAT grades of the cohort as a whole

Then how the school does compared to how it's meant to do gives you the value added

So if yuh look at the SAT results - take into account the average value added the school gets you can predict ON AVERAGE the GCSE results

I would say that if the predictions on average give a similar value added then they're likely to be reliable ...

I've cried over this tonight. I'm in FE - I teach young people and adults on GCSE maths resits. Many of my adults have university places (particularly in nursing) resing on getting a grade 4.

Mocks were terrible for some but lots have quadrupled their efforts and have progressed more in the last 5 weeks than in the whole of last term. I'm devastated.

The guilt of using those awful kick scores doesn't bare thinking about

It’s so tough for the children and parents involved. I hope they come up with the correct methodology to apply grades.

I worry for the child who has low predicted grades but who since has worked so hard to improve for the actual exam and the children who show they don’t really care when it comes to day to day work but when the exam comes they focus and pull it out the bag.

And teachers of course

DS1 is stuffed if it's based on mocks, as he has spent most of this term, until a couple of weeks ago, school refusing and missed them. His head is in a better place now and he's desperate to do well.

I'm leaving it to school to break the news to him, if he hasn't found out already.

As an example of how unreliable mocks can be, I got an E in my maths A level mock and an A in the real thing.

My DD has cried herself to sleep this evening. She lacked motivation and struggled with studying since her dads double cancer diagnosis last year and subsequent long admission in hospital, she did very badly in mocks in november, i cried then as i hadnt realised it was impacting on her studies as she never previously had any concerns, she has alot of work to do and has been focussing in improving her science grades specifically as she wants to study physics, chemistry and maths at a level. she has jumped three grades since those mocks, she was going to do an intensive revision week at the beginning of april and she has a good baseline but if they use predicted grades from mocks she wont have a sixth from place, we are liaising with the school but exceptional circumstances only adds 5 % which given she has already jumped grades since the initial mocks isnt particularly helpful- the only option is a repeat of yr 11 if she cant sit her GCSE

whats sad is my eldest DS predicted grade for economics and government and politics a few years ago were Cs and he got A stars... so it shows that kids do pull it out the bag a few weeks before

My year 13 IDS is going to work very hard at home. I've told him he needs to keep going as if the exams are still happening!