Terrible predicted GCSE grades - is it too early to panic?

[HelloCheekyCat]

DD is in year 9 and does 3 year GCSEs so started her options in September. We got her report before half term and she is predicted some pretty shocking grades:
Science 3/2
History 4 - not exactly terrible but she loves history and usually does well in tests so this was a surprise
Then the rest are 5/6 with a 4 in maths which is expected and she already has a tutor.
So should we be worried yet or does she have enough time to turn it around? I know she struggles with science but don't know if a tutor now will help and if so, now or in year 10/11?
Her school is ok but typical secondary with behavioural issues, big classes and the middling-not-great-but-not-misbehaving children don't really get a look in, which is where I think she falls.

The question you need to ask the school is are these grades formative assessment or based on test papers just sat. Because they are just starting out on the GCSE course, there could have been questions on topics they have not yet studied. They will not have yet developed the appropriate writing style at this young age, nor are they experienced in sitting timed examinations. I would speak to her teachers or get an overview from her tutor group teacher.

I would have a chat with school before panicking. We had a predicted grade of a 3 for English after the first round of mocks last year, but when we spoke to the English teacher they said actually the learning of certain elements isn’t there yet and I’d expect that to be a 5 further down the tracks.

Have a chat with the school and make sure you really understand how they are grading them. Are they grading them on the basis of how they would do now having not learned any exam technique etc or how they think they will progress. How does this tie in with her SATs or CAT? And, critically, have the school picked up on it? DS is in a similar position and the school are all over him like a rash as he is currently an average of 2 grades below where he should be according to his Yr7 CAT scores.

My approach with the science in particular would be to contact the teachers and ask what you can all do (school, student and parental support) to get that to a pass. Perhaps I’m out of touch, but I think it’s insane to have a prediction of a fail, unless it is used to improve the situation.

We've just had a report too.
It lists a target grade as well as a working at grade. My A level child also has a mock grade on there.

So, the first thing I'd do is check if the grade is what school expect the grade to be summer 2028, or what the grade would be if sat tomorrow - and given you are in y9, that will make a massive difference.

The general feeling is kids improve a grade or 2 from Y10 mocks to final GCSEs. So you may well find those grades improve as you work through the next 2.5 years just by attending classes and doing homework.

For Science (my area when i worked in a school), I recommend the books from CGP. You can get textbook style books, plus workbooks full of questions. NB you need to get the right board. Science is also tiered - but if she's working at a 3-2 currently, I'd suggest foundation initially.

You are a long way off GCSEs. A small amount of effort now could generate massive changes.

You need to understand what has formed these predictions. Is it based on one assessment? A teacher assessed gut feel? A trajectory based on multiple observations? With a 3 year GCSE they will have a lot of revision time baked in, and a lot of GCSE is about practice.

Thanks everyone for your help and calming me down!
we were given email.addresses for each subject (and form tutor) with the report so I'll ask the questions posed above to clarify what these grades are actually based on.
we haven't had parents evening yet so.not had a.chance to speak to any teAchers but we have one in march all we.can f ind out more then too

why are they doing 3 year GCSEs? Surely you need the basis of year 9 work to start GCSE work? or have they just cut their subject options down in year 9 and don't actually start GCSE syllabus until next year? what were her grades like in previous years?
(sorry, that's a lot of questions!)

I've had another look at the report and I think I get it now! There is a current grade, target grade and forecast grade.
All of the target grades are 3 (is that better than the old U and therefore basically a pass?!) and the current grades are all lower than the forecasted, except 1 subject which she should be doing a lot better in based on her assessments in year 7/8.
Science is still the one which really worries me, DD got really upset last night about it specifically because she says she can't remember anything either in class or when she does her homework. Her friend she sits next to sometimes distracts her so I've told her she's got to knock that on the head or I'll ask for them to be separated.

I actually don't know the answers to these questions I'm afraid!
This school was the only likely option for DD (two other secondaries near-ish are over subscribed and we aren't in catchment, a drive away, her entire year group went to this one and she can walk there) so I didn't question it.
It was talked about at the open evening but it was nearly 4 years ago so I don't remember what they said!

To explain the number grades.

grades 1,2 &3 are a level 1 pass
grades 4 and up are a level 2 pass.

When people say a 4 is a pass they are talking about a level 2 pass. Level 1 grades are still a pass and shouldn’t be dismissed.

Do you know how her target grades were reached? It might be internal tests (like cat4) or using her SATs from year 6. Knowing might help put her grades in context.

You would expect her current grades to be less than the forecast ones as students grow a develop over the next 2 years. School are moving away from predicted grades as teachers don’t have crystal balls and lots can happen between now and the actual exams.

What does she hope to do post 16? Does she have any ideas yet?

No reason for panic, even if those are her GCSE grades. She is much more than a bunch of numbers - her grades do not define her.

Hi, Secondary School teacher here. These grades at the minute are not that bad actually. A grade 4 is a pass at GSCE but she is still in Year 9 so still has all of Year 10 and 11 to do. I would not be too worried about these at all at the minute. Obviously if by the end of Year 10 they are still at this that is when I would be concerned. Also they start giving "predicted" grades as well which can ramp up the pressure but the predicted grades will change as you go through the course. Don't look at them at the minute just focus on the present. Don't let it become a pressure cooker. A 4 in history at the minute is a pass at GCSE. Ask about some extra support/help in science. Remember I am not saying it is what to aim for but a grade 4 is a pass. Good Luck!

What does she hope to do post 16? Does she have any ideas yet?

Not really! she doesn't think she'll want to do A levels but not sure what she will.want to do at college. Her favourite subjects are history and photography but not sure what job they would lead to 😆
When she was younger she wanted to do.my job (buyer) because I get a lot of freebies 😆

Have a look at the BTEC threads in Further Education, it will give you all hope.

As on GCSE syllabus already get the relevant science revision guides, you need to know the board, then I would assume she is doing Combined and will be doing Foundation tier (max grade 5). This could really help as you can track what she has done and the guides contain everything needed.

Not too early to act, but definitely too early to panic. Predicted grades at this stage are often based on very little actual data and kids mature at different rates. The most important thing right now is figuring out whether it's a knowledge gap or a confidence/motivation gap — they look the same from the outside but need completely different approaches. Our DS is 15 and we found the emotional side was actually the bigger blocker. Once we made practice feel less like punishment (gamification was a game-changer for us, pardon the pun), the actual grades followed. Is your DC willing to do extra practice or do they shut down at the mention of it?