Please or to access all these features

Sponsored threads

This topic is for sponsored discussions. If you'd like to run one with us, please email [email protected].

See all MNHQ comments on this thread

Discuss your views of the Scottish Referendum with the UK government NOW CLOSED

489 replies

MichelleMumsnet · 26/03/2014 14:50

With fewer than 200 days to go until the Scottish referendum, UK Government has produced the latest edition, in a series of information packs, focussing on money and the economy in the context of the independence debate.

Read more: Scottish independence referendum: Money and the economy.

UK Government wants to find out what Mumsnetters' views are of the Scottish referendum coming up in September. When it comes to the prospect of Scotland going it alone and possible impacts on the economy, like changes in currency and taxes, what are your views? Whether you're Scottish or not we'd love to hear your thoughts.

Danny Alexander, Chief Secretary to the Treasury says, "As part of the UK the Scottish economy is growing, inflation is down and more people are in work. By remaining part of the UK, Scottish industry and jobs will be protected by the generous freeze on duties on spirits and the £3bn tax break for oil and gas industries we announced at the Budget, as well as the big cuts in income tax helping 2 million Scottish workers.

This new pack sets out some key facts people in Scotland need to know before the referendum in September. I urge everyone to read up on the facts and understand the true benefits being part of the United Kingdom brings to Scotland."

Mumsnet will be hosting various content and activity in the run up to the referendum from all sides of the debate, so do keep a look out for these in the coming months.

Thanks,

MNHQ

OP posts:
SantanaLopez · 07/04/2014 19:21

Travel is a weak argument- it's the same flight time from London to Glasgow as it is from London to Paris.

The debt (as in would still be backed by Scottish GDP/oil). What do you mean by this?

Cross border travel- see London/Paris argument, with reference to Schengen.

Ease of separation I don't think is much of an argument.

Oil not an issue. I beg to differ. The centrality of oil would make the Scottish economy very volatile, with consequences in the balance of payments and the real exchange rate.

SantanaLopez · 07/04/2014 19:23

I find the UK stuff much more balanced than the SNP, simply because the legal argument is footnoted below it and the crux of the White Paper arguments is that Scotland is unique...

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 08/04/2014 15:34

Oh dear me, did you hear Lord George Robertson's speech? Apparently if we vote yes, it's the end of Western civilisation and the forces of darkness will be released upon the planet, with cataclysmic effects... What was that about more balanced, Santana? Grin

Don't think I'll change my mind though, demons loose on the planet might be fun...

FannyFifer · 08/04/2014 16:12

Salmonds speech was amazing.

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 08/04/2014 16:49

Thanks for the links, can't seem to do them on the ipad any more.

George's take is, I suppose, a change from the "too poor, too wee" mantra. Although of course we won't be members of the EU, (though we'll simulataneously have to use the Euro and join Schengen) NATO etc, we'll have all this amazing power... Grin

Consistency, BetterTogether, you need consistency.

Alex, in contrast, very positive, very forward looking. Impressed.

itsatiggerday · 08/04/2014 16:52

Has anyone seen any detail about the additional fixed costs that would be incurred in iScotland? I'm thinking things like financial services regulation which will surely be considerable, then HMRC centralised functions, monopolies & mergers oversight, HSE and all the other similar organisations? Is the Yes campaign suggesting that they can continue to benefit from all of these without contributing to the costs, or planning to duplicate them all or what?

My main interest is the financial services regulation as there is a legal requirement that regulation is in the same country as the registered head office of the company so it wouldn't be possible just to pay a fee to the rUK regulators and ask them to do it. There are huge potential costs that would be necessary to continue an industry crucial to the scottish economy but I can't find any serious engagement with the logistics planned by the SNP.

alialiath · 08/04/2014 17:48

I'm moving back to Scotland so that I can lodge my YES vote. It's the only ethical thing to do. Have a read at this. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/20/scottish-independence-becoming-only-option

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/04/2014 17:56

Robertson:

"He also insisted he was not scaremongering, saying: "I think if people think carefully about the world as it is today and what we've seen in Ukraine, what we see in Syria, what we see in the East China Sea and elsewhere.."

Yup. Not scaremongering. Not at all.

MAsMum · 08/04/2014 19:06

Personally, I think that what is being proposed by the "Yes" campaign is a hybrid system whereby they pick and choose the best bits of independence and then merge it with the good bits of being part of the UK ie a common currency so I don't really think that they are seeking to be truly autonomous.

Ultimately, the main argument for the "Yes" campaign seems be the North Sea Oil Revenue and a desire to be independent from Westminister but what if the "Islands" seek independence from Scotland on the basis that Holyrood doesn't accurately reflect their views?

I think more can be achieved by remaining part of the UK through the economy of scale principle.

I am not Scottish but I think the three main parties in Westminister have scored massive own goals by adopting an aloof and somewhat condescending approach to the referendum. I think that they have failed to recognise that the Scottish people are well equipped to make their own decisions based on well reasoned arguments rather than trying to belittle the individuals involved in the "Yes" vote.

I also think that by preventing Scottish people who are not currently residing in Scotland from voting that it will not be truly reflective of the views of the Scottish people especially given the large concentrations of English students studying in Edinburgh/St Andrews and the large number of Northern Irish students attending Scottish unis who will be eligible to vote.

SantanaLopez · 08/04/2014 20:46

I've also said frequently how disappointing the 'no' campaign is, sadly another example.

However, let's have a small comparison exercise:

''It would be cataclysmic for Scotland to become independent, it would aid the forces of darkness, it would threaten the stability of the western world''

with

“London is the dark star of the economy, inexorably sucking in resources, people and energy. Nobody quite knows how to control it... There would be a ‘northern light’ to redress the influence of the ‘dark star’ – rebalancing the economic centre of gravity of these islands.”

Is there much of a difference in exaggeration and bias?

Has anyone seen any detail about the additional fixed costs that would be incurred in iScotland? I'm thinking things like financial services regulation which will surely be considerable, then HMRC centralised functions, monopolies & mergers oversight, HSE and all the other similar organisations? Is the Yes campaign suggesting that they can continue to benefit from all of these without contributing to the costs, or planning to duplicate them all or what?

There's a big government chapter www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/271794/2901475_HMG_Scotland_EUandInternational_acc2.pdf. It's very long and as demonstrated above, the yes campaign don't believe it.

So, from the White Paper: Revenue Scotland, working with Registers of Scotland and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, will set up the necessary administrative systems for Land and Buildings Transaction Tax and Scottish Landfill Tax and cover the basic cost of administration for the first five years of operation for £16.7 million. This is 25 per cent less than HMRC estimated for the cost of setting up and operating for five years in Scotland like-for-like equivalents of Stamp Duty Land Tax and UK Landfill Tax.

There's a few other figures scattered about. Diplomatic offices, for example: The current Scottish Government estimates the running costs of its initial proposed network of 70 to 90 overseas offices at £90-120 million.

Then 505. Will independence mean there will be extra costs in terms of IT systems for public services?

There will be transitional costs, the level of which will depend on arrangements reached with Westminster on sharing. Independence provides an opportunity to develop better integrated IT systems for public services.

You might also find the Economic Affairs Committee report helpful.

And in the balance of fairness, we have the view from ScotReferendum...
The size of the one-off investment in systems and processes that Scotland will make as a result of independence will be a small proportion of an independent Scotland’s total budget, and will be offset by the opportunities that independence will provide to deliver improved government and services in the future. It will depend partly on the negotiations on apportioning assets and liabilities that will take place following a vote for independence and partly by future decisions about whether and how quickly to introduce new systems.

FannyFifer · 08/04/2014 21:32

Pretty sure Vince cable & others have said similar about London so not just limited to Yes lot. Grin

prettybird · 08/04/2014 21:37

One of the things that I genuinely don't understand is how countries like Denmark, which is a similar size to Scotland, can afford to operate embassies etch around the world and manage their financial institutions without (apparently) bankrupting themselves Confused

My dad spent my great-aunt's 100th birthday celebrations fielding questions from our Danish and German relatives as to why wouldn't Scotland want to be independent.

FannyFifer · 08/04/2014 22:21

Anyone see this from Owen Jones, great article.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/08/lord-robertson-bully-scots-no-referendum-vote

SantanaLopez · 08/04/2014 22:29

One of the things that I genuinely don't understand is how countries like Denmark, which is a similar size to Scotland, can afford to operate embassies etch around the world and manage their financial institutions without (apparently) bankrupting themselves

Denmark gained independence from Norway in 1815 (or roundabouts!). Its economy, its fiscal structure, its welfare state, all the connected parts of a modern state has grown organically, together. They haven't had to stop and set everything up again.

For example, the running costs of the first few years of a Scottish diplomatic service are estimated at £120 million. What about the start up costs? The White Paper says that Scotland is entitled to a share of embassies, but this is wrong under international law (state property remains the property of the continuing state (the rUK) unless it is located in the territory of the new state (iScotland). So Scotland has to find and set up property in London; Beijing; Berlin; Brasilia; Canberra; Delhi; Dublin; Islamabad; Madrid; Moscow; Paris; Pretoria; Seoul; Tokyo; Warsaw; Washington and in view of the close historical and co-operation ties with Malawi, Lilongwe.

That's a hell of a lot of money to suddenly come up with, and it's just for one small part of the state.

The cost of transition is one of my reasons for voting No.

SantanaLopez · 08/04/2014 22:29

Can the SNP refute any claim without whining about bullying?!

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 08/04/2014 23:11

But what evidence is there that rUK would be the "continuing state"? That's just an assumption on the part of the No campaign.

Let's both sides face it; there is no precedent for what might happen, there is no legal structure to deal with it, so everything is up for discussion. There is no certainty if we vote yes, there is no certainty if we vote no.

All we can vote on, is, essentially, hope over fear.

When does BetterTogether start offering hope? All we've seen is that if we vote no, all three main Uk parties have promised more austerity, and that more of our children - UK wide - will grow up in poverty.

My dc are young adults, and they're both dads. I'm thinking about my dgs, and that's why I'm sticking with yes.

SantanaLopez · 08/04/2014 23:28

But what evidence is there that rUK would be the "continuing state"? That's just an assumption on the part of the No campaign.

a) Specific precedent: The continuity of one state is the norm, in examples including the UK/Ireland (1922), British India (1947), Malaysia/Singapore (1965), Pakistan/ Bangladesh (1971–72), Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) (1990–91), Ethiopia/Eritrea (1993), Serbia/Montenegro (2006) and Sudan/South Sudan (2011).

b) Population and territory. In almost all the above cases, the continuator state was the unit retaining the majority of the predecessor state’s population and territory. This is true of the Dominion of India, Malaysia, Russia, Ethiopia, Serbia and Sudan.

c) Governmental institutions, again, in almost all examples, the continuator state retained substantially the same governmental institutions as the predecessor state.

So, all of these factors count in favour of the rUK being the continuator state of the UK. If Scotland became independent, the rUK would retain about 92% of the UK’s population, more than two-thirds of its territory, and its principal governmental institutions, since the UK Parliament, the UK Supreme Court and its government departments are located in London. The precedent of the separation of most of Ireland also indicates that the UK would survive another, comparable loss of territory, regardless of whether it changed its name (or flag) to acknowledge the loss of Scotland.

there is no certainty if we vote yes, there is no certainty if we vote no.
Certainties in a no vote: use of the pound... there's a big one right there.

When does BetterTogether start offering hope?
When does the SNP start offering anything based on international law, figures or anything more reliable than hope?!

OldLadyKnowsNothing · 09/04/2014 01:15

Which of your examples were EU members?

There is no certainty re use of the £. Well there is actually, we can be in a CU (denied by all three major unionist parties) which is fine, but remember that according to the UK Treasury, no CU = no debt for a new iScotland. What a fantastic start! All that oil etc wealth and no debt! (But watch rUK plummet in international credit ratings, with consequent higher interest rates for mortgages, loans, etc. Watch rUk businesses taking on billions of £ worth of pointless transaction costs, or losing trade. Watch them get royally fucked off with WM... Will WM sell out it's own voters, to make a "cut off your own nose" point? Possibly...)

Or we can continue to use the £, without backup, which has it's own problems. Or we can set up our own currency.

Pragmatism, and doing the best for rUK, suggests that WM will agree to CU. If they don't, it's no skin off our noses. (Except we don't want to see that kind of economic armagadden visited upon our nearest neightbours, and biggest trading partners.)

SantanaLopez · 09/04/2014 10:03

You are actually just embarrassing yourself now.

No, the countries I listed above are not EU members. The international aspect is a clue- this is a matter of international and not European law. No EU treaty defines the territory of a member state. If you are trying to make the ridiculous claim that ‘the EU can’t throw Scotland’ out, I will refer you once more to the point that Scotland would be making itself a new state by democratically voting yes.

Firstly: When a part of the territory of a Member State ceases to be a part of that state, e.g. because the territory becomes an independent state, the treaties will no longer apply to that territory. In other words, a newly independent region would, by the fact of its independence, become a third country with respect to the Union and the treaties would, from the day of its independence, not apply anymore on its territory.

Secondly: the EU citizenship argument is also lacking, because: Citizenship of the [European] Union shall be additional to and not replace national citizenship.

Barroso (your favourite!) told the Catalan independence group that: The Commission confirms that, in accordance with Article 20 of the [TFEU], EU citizenship is additional to and does not replace national citizenship (that is, the citizenship of an EU Member State). It also confirms that in the hypothetical event of a secession of a part of an EU Member State, the solution would have to be found and negotiated within the international legal order. Any other consideration related to the consequences of such event would be of a conjectural nature.

??remember that according to the UK Treasury, no CU = no debt for a new iScotland. What a fantastic start!

This is really, really not true, as I have tried to explain to you before.
Here is the Director of Macroeconomic Research, National Institute of Economic and Social Research: I don’t think they could walk away from accepting public sector debt. The question is how much. It would be very difficult to walk away on two grounds. You are expecting the UK in a currency union either to co-operate because it depends on them to participate in a monetary union-as I said, it requires both sides-so that would be an unusual way to negotiate it, or, if you were to introduce your own currency and you started off by doing something that was clearly not responsible behaviour, then that would not be a very reassuring sign to international investors, whom you are presumably going to have to attract in the future.

Danny Alexander described the situation as 'pretty fanciful to suggest that a new Scottish state, if it wished to have any credibility whatsoever, economically or in the financial sector, would refuse to take on a share of the debts after negotiations. I notice that the First Minister himself said only last year that an independent Scotland would accept an equitable share. Given all the issues about credibility and so on, and the negotiations that go on with the European Union and other international institutions, any suggestion that an independent Scotland would say, "We’re not going to deal in that area at all," would make it look like a bit of a basket case.

All that oil etc wealth and no debt!

Scotland will need money on day 1 on independence. It will need to start issuing its debts on day 1. Oil wealth takes a while to come in- a few months at least. Futhermore, an economy which depends on oil needs a really watertight economy to deal with the fluctuations and volatility of oil.

(But watch rUK plummet in international credit ratings, with consequent higher interest rates for mortgages, loans, etc. Watch rUk businesses taking on billions of £ worth of pointless transaction costs, or losing trade. Watch them get royally fucked off with WM... Will WM sell out it's own voters, to make a "cut off your own nose" point? Possibly…)

?The UK treasury has already stated that it stands behind the whole of the UK debt. It wouldn’t suddenly be landed with an extra bill, because Scotland technically has no debt at this point.

Furthermore, Scotland gets more spent on it than it puts back in the UK pot, so the changes aren’t quite significant enough for your economic armageddon. By the way, can I refer you to your own comments on Robertson’s speech? The pot and the kettle are both black…

Finally, economies tend to act like dominoes. You have stated yourself that rUK would be iScotland’s biggest trading partner. What would be the knock on effect or your armaggedon too Scotland? Or would Scotland be —magically— immune?

?Or we can continue to use the £, without backup, which has it's own problems. Or we can set up our own currency. Pragmatism, and doing the best for rUK, suggests that WM will agree to CU.

You didn’t respond to my points the last time I made them to you, so I don’t expect an answer now, but why is it pragmatic? Yes, rUK would be Scotland’s biggest trading partners, but it doesn’t work in the opposite: rUK would do twice as much trade with America and four times as much with the EU. So under your logic, they should adopt either the dollar or the euro?

If they don't, it's no skin off our noses.
No skin off your noses? Let’s paint a picture. Independence day is on the 24th March. Now, as everyone knows- the end of the month is payday! So here comes the 30th March, and every central government worker in Scotland is looking forward to their pay. Except the Scottish government doesn’t have any cash reserves, because no debt equals no assets. Tax receipts aren’t coming in quickly enough- VAT is four months, corporation tax and schedule D is 20 I think. In fact, iScotland has no assets and that includes the computer systems used by the UK to run the tax system to start with.

So you need to borrow the money. Well, the Bank of England certainly aren’t going to lend to you now. So we’d have to go abroad, with no assets and no credit history except a morally dubious debt situation.
You think the international money markets will look favourably on that? What sort of credit rating would we have? We would have potentially acted ‘contrary to principles of international law’ here

But of course, I am scaremongering and bullying, aren't I?

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 09/04/2014 12:16

But of course, I am scaremongering and bullying, aren't I?

Yes. You are.

SantanaLopez · 09/04/2014 12:23

And what of 'economic armageddon' predictions from your own side? What are they? Alright because they're not directed at brave wee Scotland?

FannyFifer · 09/04/2014 12:29

You know we can argue and debate forever on here, we won't change each other's minds, I don't understand why people would vote No but I do a good job in real life convincing them why they should vote Yes.
People are doing the same all over the country which is why we will win in September.

An independent country is a normal state of affairs.

On the Armageddon type predictions from Lord whoever, have you seen the papers today, even ones not particularly favourable toward Yes are basically laughing at his utter nonsense.

FannyFifer · 09/04/2014 12:32

Is Scotland actually classed as a territory though, I didn't think so.

UK is two countries which are supposed to be equal who have joined together, I think Wales is different as legally is classed as belonging to England.

SantanaLopez · 09/04/2014 12:37

On the Armageddon type predictions from Lord whoever, have you seen the papers today, even ones not particularly favourable toward Yes are basically laughing at his utter nonsense.

The Armageddon quote actually comes from OldLadyKnowsNothing. Who is voting yes.

Here's the quote from her again: Pragmatism, and doing the best for rUK, suggests that WM will agree to CU. If they don't, it's no skin off our noses. (Except we don't want to see that kind of economic armagadden visited upon our nearest neightbours, and biggest trading partners.)

And a nice explanation of what she meant by that: There is no certainty re use of the £. Well there is actually, we can be in a CU (denied by all three major unionist parties) which is fine, but remember that according to the UK Treasury, no CU = no debt for a new iScotland. What a fantastic start! All that oil etc wealth and no debt! (But watch rUK plummet in international credit ratings, with consequent higher interest rates for mortgages, loans, etc. Watch rUk businesses taking on billions of £ worth of pointless transaction costs, or losing trade. Watch them get royally fucked off with WM... Will WM sell out it's own voters, to make a "cut off your own nose" point? Possibly...)

I don't understand why people would vote No but I do a good job in real life convincing them why they should vote Yes.
If you can't look at all of the evidence I've posted and reconsider, there is seriously something wrong with you.