The last few days she's been getting whingey and rubbing her eyes around 10/10.30.
I would do a normal 10am sleep then, if there are any tired signs. Personally, I would only consider skipping the morning nap if baby wasn't tired and had no difficulties staying awake.
I don't believe in keeping an obviously tired baby awake, unless in exceptional circumstances. But that is because my parenting philosophy is based on routine and structure, but baby led not parent led.
Keeping a tired baby awake is parent led, not doing what the baby needs/wants. What I'd do is let baby sleep and move around all of my timings to suit.
I might (in fact I often did) wake a sleeping baby at specific times, limiting nap length. That allows for better routine. But wouldn't stop a tired baby sleeping.
So using some things you said:
Naps are usually 10am.
Baby needs 3h awake time.
So you can work out some routine from that. Notably:
- Baby needs to wake from morning nap by 11am, to allow for a 2pm afternoon nap. Therefore I would set that in stone - if baby does have an AM nap, you always wake her at 11am.
- Assuming a 7pm (flexible) bedtime, baby cannot sleep after 4pm. So always wake baby for 4pm. Although having a bit longer awake time before bedtime is usual.
- Given these two facts, that means the most possible sleep baby can have with 2 naps is 3h. Is that enough to be completely content, well rested and no hints of over tiredness at all?
If the maximum is 3h sleep on 2-nap days, less daytime sleep is going to be likely on some days, if baby wakes earlier than 11am and 4pm. So - how over tired (or not) is she in 2h daytime sleep?
Your range of daytime sleep is likely to be 2-3h in two naps. It might be less on 1-nap. So before you start working out any sort of routines you need to know that this is the right amount of sleep. For comparison my 13 month old had 4-5h of daytime sleep and 11-12h at night.
If realistically, baby is not completely happy, content and very well rested on the 3h maximum sleep - them the fundamentals of your routine (3h awake time and 10am/2pm naps) need to change.
Personally, I think you are rushing towards 1-nap days before your baby is ready. Having difficulties getting to sleep is not a sign baby doesn't need the sleep.
(Sorry about the essay)