How do they work out GCSE predictions?

[magentadreamer]

I'm curious as to how they predict GCSE final grades. Is it the subject teacher who does the predicition or is it one of those the computer says type of things? Do they take into account KS2 SATS, the Yr7 death by shapes CAT tests plus end of KS3 levels or would it just be end of KS3 levels?

Runes, dice and shapes in the teacups IMO.

Hmm I think you might be right!

Pick a grade out of a hat and make it apply across 11 subjects regardless of aptitude in each.

In my school the subject teacher. Based on current performance, work ethic and how they normally do under exam conditions coupled with idea that most children can improve (or at least revise more)between now and June. Have just done mine. Predictions should be realistically optimistic - they should not be used as a kick up the bum for a lazy student. HTH

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At our school it's done initially by computersays, using the data you mention, plus indicators such as free school meals, SEN, looked after children, etc.

The reason for this is this then gives the school the "expected progress target" for the child, against which the school will be measured for Value Added, etc.

At our school teachers are allowed to revise these targets upwards, but not downwards.

Predictions, in my experience, are made on how well they do on exam questions for the parts of the course they have already studied, including coursework which has been handed in.

There is no point in going back to baseline testing for a student who is not putting in the effort. Predictions have to be based on what they are actually doing. Targets are based on their ability rather than effort.

We don't have 'predictions'.
We have targets - based on ability - see above.

And RAG = Red, Amber, Green = way off target, just missing target or on course to achieve the target by the deadline

Then CWL = current working level - what level they are performing at NOW

At my dd2 school they had 'target' grades, which were apparently based on KS3 levels, plus KS2 and CATs as well I think. I heard a rumour that the computerised answers were then all bumped up by a grade - to be more stretching!

By the time they got to year 11, they also had expected grades, which were based on teachers opinion & mock test results.

I don't think much of the computerised 'targets'. My dd2's targets were all A* - in the end she got 2 A's and the rest B's.

The target setting for A levels is even more random, as it seems to be based on the average of what you got for all your GCSE's, ignoring the fact that most children take A levels in the subjects they are good at. My DD1's A level 'target' grades were C/D's which ignored the fact that she got A* in the subjects she took for AS/A2 (she eventually got 3 A's.)

So I would ignore 'targets' & ask the teachers opinion.