GCSE: is it true they're graded so that ca 1/3 must fail? How are boundaries decided?

[ParentOfOne]

I understand that grade boundaries can change from year to year and from exam board to exam board. E.g. a 4 in Maths can be 40 points out of 240 one year and 45 out of 240 another year. That I get.

What I don't understand is:

• what, exactly, is the statistical methodology to adjust the boundaries from year to year? Is it even publicly disclosed? How much of a subjective, qualitative assessment is it?
• Is it true that the exams are graded on a curve in such a way that, by design, ca. 1/3 of the kids will fail?

On the last point, there are many mumsnetters who hold very strong opinions that it's true, but I have not found official confirmation.

If it were true, it would mean that the bottom third would fail regardless of score; e.g. one year the bottom third could score 40% of the points, another year 55%.

If we look at Maths Grade boundaries for Edexcel, we see that a 4 has ranged from 51% to 60% of the total points in the foundation paper, and from 17% to 22% of the higher paper. These are not percentiles, but percentages of the total point. https://mathsbot.com/gcse/boundaries

This doesn't seem to me like a system that's designed to fail 1/3 of the students regardless of score.
If you get less than 50-60% of the questions right in the easier version of the exam, and less than 20% in the harder version, it seems pretty clear to me that you have not even mastered the basics of the subjects. In many countries 60% or thereabout tends to be the threshold for passing.

This is also why I don't understand those who say that 1 to 3 are also passes. You pass if you get 10% of the points? What is the definition of failing then?

Or am I missing something?

TES explained that in the first year the % of grade 9 was set equal to a certain % of those achieving >=7, but how it changed after the first year is unclear https://www.tes.com/magazine/analysis/secondary/gcse-and-a-level-grade-boundaries

Of course there is a point to a level 1 pass. GCSEs are not just level 2 passes. For some DC, a level 1 pass will be a huge achievement. Do you think there is no point in entry level qualifications too?

EAA do not remove the barriers completely. Rest breaks do not stop some candidates finding exams too long, exhausting, and overwhelming. Particularly if the candidate also has extra time and especially if they have more than 25% extra time.

DS1 has complex needs. This summer he got two 9s in maths and statistics GCSEs with a host of EAA. He is on track for five GCSEs at grade 8-9 next year, but that won’t include GCSE or IGCSE English Language or Literature because his complex needs mean they are both inaccessible to him. That doesn’t make him functionally illiterate. It is because the GCSEs/IGCSEs are the perfect storm for his complex SEN and highlight all the difficulties he has with some elements of education. FS doesn’t work for him either.

It's not necessarily the maths that is difficult for kids that fail. It's the wording. The insistence on using names in questions that lower ability just can't pronounce - I coached a young relative through GCSE maths and I had to tell him that no matter what the name said, he had to use Tom, Dick or Harry, because otherwise he was completely flummoxed before he'd even grasped the question. A lot of these kids would pass a straight set of sums. Telling them that Nancy wants to plant her garden with 35 tulips... Not so much.

Grade 3 maths and English is often a gateway for a level 2 course at college.

@flawlessflipper He is on track for five GCSEs at grade 8-9 next year, but that won’t include GCSE or IGCSE English Language or Literature because his complex needs mean they are both inaccessible to him. That doesn’t make him functionally illiterate.

And how representative do you honestly think this case is?
Of the 30 to 40% who fail to get a 4 in English and Maths, how many do you honestly think have such complex needs that they score 8-9 in one but not even a 4 in the other?

My point is not that every single individual who fails at both is functionally illiterate. But that, when so many do, there is a broader problem.

A function where 1/3 of the population or thereabout struggles to understand fractions and percentages, or lacks basic text comprehension skills, is not a functioning society.

@Lougle I coached a young relative through GCSE maths and I had to tell him that no matter what the name said, he had to use Tom, Dick or Harry, because otherwise he was completely flummoxed before he'd even grasped the question

Interesting. But what does this mean in terms of life skills and real-world implications? Would people like this struggle to process an invoice if they have to give a 5% discount or add 20% VAT to the invoice of a customer with a name they cannot pronounce?

Having such spiky profiles really isn’t rare for DC with SEN. No, not 30-40% of candidates, but not an insignificant number either.

@noblegiraffe if you get a 2 or below you don’t have to resit GCSE, you can take functional maths instead.

Have you ever seen the past papers for functional maths? A 10-year old studying for the 11+ does more complex exercises. https://passfunctionalskills.co.uk/functional-skills-maths-level-1-past-papers/edexcel-functional-skills-maths-level-1-past-papers/#past-papers

This is not about being classist. This is not about saying that Tom in the council estate must speak Latin and learn partial differential equations like Reginald at Eaton. This is about practical life skills with real-world implications.

Some of the questions are things like:
is 15% of 860 more or less than 100?
convert kilograms into grams
is three quarters of a million more or less than 600,000
sort 5 decimal numbers

And, even so, the overall pass rate is still 36% (although that will include resits and mature candidates) https://www.pearson.com/en-gb/work/insights-and-events/training-providers-insights/2024/09/functional-skills-pass-rates-2023-24-.html

It's very sad.

I don't think so because those tasks can be taught discretely. This young person was getting fixated on trying to say the name correctly, so couldn't move past it to tackle the rest of the question.

They deliberately word questions obliquely. Instead of asking:

"A box can hold 12 pens. There are 240 pens. How many boxes can be filled?"

They ask:

"Janice has 240 pens. A box can hold 12 pens. Janice says 'I can fill 11 boxes with pens' Is she correct? Justify your answer."

Instead of a simple sum, the student has to calculate the division, compare it to the number of boxes stated, write that Janice is wrong, and write some sort of explanation for why they know she is wrong.

@flawlessflipper - well done to your DS1, that is an amazing achievement. I would be incredibly proud!

The risk is not whether Level 1 or Level 2. The main problem is NEET - not in employment, education or training.

The other real problem is as highlighted by UCL and Leeds that behind at age 4/5 and not school ready is much more likely to lead to NEET.

“Children who were behind in their development at age 4-5 were almost three times as likely to have been out of education, employment, or training at age 16-17, analysis of pupil data has found.”

All this chat about secondary schools seems pointless. Intervention has to be done right at the start via high quality free nursery. But if you cannot staff the nurseries with high quality nursery staff and preschool teacher in deprived areas, what then? A lot of the Scandis understand that. Free nursery places for all is not enough. They have to be trained and educated to a high level for the intervention to make a substantial difference.

@ParentOfOne You linked to level 1 FS. The students would be aiming to get to level 2, only using level 1 as a stepping stone if needed.

That is the level 1 paper.

The level 2 functional skills is a gcse 4 equivilent.

A lot of people sitting level 1 will be sitting it as prep for level 2 and for building condidence. Many will have have special needs and actually that sort of basic maths is enough for a lot of jobs.

@Araminta1003 thank you! I am immensely proud. The biggest success was sitting them at all. I didn’t know if he would be able to sit them right up to the start of each paper. A lot of work by many professionals has gone in to getting DS1 to this point.

This is true for a lot of subjects, you have to teach how to pass the exam as well as the content.

A few years ago someone on here was asking about their teenager taking a GCSE in a MFL, I think he had autism and was struggling to talk about his family.

But the thing with MFL is they want you to speak the language, the assessor doesn't care if you are an only child or say that 5 older brothers and 5 younger sisters. It is the language they are assessing.

@Lougle They ask:
"Janice has 240 pens. A box can hold 12 pens. Janice says 'I can fill 11 boxes with pens' Is she correct? Justify your answer."
Instead of a simple sum, the student has to calculate the division, compare it to the number of boxes stated, write that Janice is wrong, and write some sort of explanation for why they know she is wrong.

And do you honestly think it is too much to ask of 16 year olds about to enter adulthood and the workforce to have the cognitive, reasoning and logical skills to figure this out? I do not. 10 year olds studying for the 11+ solve much harder problems.

If you want to say the questions are worded in a way which tricks special needs and neuro divergent kids, it's one thing. I know nothing about that, and I don't want to comment on things I don't know. But we sure don't have 30% of the population with the kind of special needs that prevent them from understanding such banal questions.

People who have children who studied for the 11+ often have zero idea about the normal school population.

@ParentOfOne

You have mentioned 10 year olds and the 11 plus a few times now. My understanding of the 11 plus is that its to select out 'academic" pupils to go to grammar schools. And yes an academic 10 year old suitable for grammar school would hopefully be aiming for a 7 at gcse at least. So at 10 I assume they would have a good grasp of the concepts to build on. Depending on locality you are aiming at the highest attaining 5% to 30%

Those questions might be on the 11 plus, but are you sure that every student is 'passing?' The 11 plus. (I appreciate its not a fixed thing) Presumably there is a chunk people not getting it then either. They will mostly be the ones not getting it at 15 either.

I dontvquite understand the surprise that higher attaining people get concepts earlier and build on them.

But also 20% of people do have some sort of sen. It won't always affect maths

Did you get awarded a CSE if you failed the O-Level with enough points scored?

It is possible to do courses directly at Level 1, and obviously in those cases that is the purpose of the course and if you do the Level 1 work sufficiently you get the Level 1 certificate, which is a pass of that course.

If you get Grade 2 GCSE, what do you record it as on a CV? It isn't really a "Level 1 certificate in Whatever", it is a very low grade GCSE in Whatever.

That's utterly irrelevant. You have completely missed the point.

The point is not that every kid at 16 should speak Latin like little Reginald studying to get into Eaton.

The point is that understanding fractions and percentages are basic life skills needed to function in society. Failing to achieve that means functional illiteracy.

If questions like

"Janice has 240 pens. A box can hold 12 pens. Janice says 'I can fill 11 boxes with pens' Is she correct?

trick 30 to 40% of the population, it means ca. 1/3 of the population borders functional illiteracy and lacks some of the most basic skills to function in society.

What makes you think that 30-40% of kids would get that question wrong?

@Fearfulsaints I dontvquite understand the surprise that higher attaining people get concepts earlier and build on them.

of course that in itself is not surprising. What is surprising, or maybe I should say demoralising but not surprising, is that so many 16 year olds fail to understand fractions and percentages properly.

Probably not surprising because the rise of populism, fake new etc are clear proofs of how illiterate many people are, and how they lack the most basic critical skills.

Of course I don't have the exact stats for each question, but 30 to 40% of the kids (depending on the year) fail to get a 4 in English and Maths.

Sure, some will be special needs.

Sure, some will have very peculiar situations and maybe get 8 in Maths and 3 in English.

But, let's be realistic, how many?

We have certainly had a lot more trouble teaching that in that question the answer they want is not "Yes, she can fill 11 boxes" (because she has enough pens to fill 20, which is a larger number than 11) than in teaching the maths skills behind it.

We rank pretty highly in maths compared internationally.

The people not getting a 4 may well have demonstrated their understanding of fractions and percentages but not other areas.

Im only basing this in the fact that my son passed level 1 functional skills which is a 1-3 at gcse and to pass he did have to understand those concepts. If he didn't, he would have failed.

@ParentOfOne you seem to be unaware that there is a range of attainment at 16. Some young people for many different reasons find maths and english hard. Others excel. To get a grade 4 at gcse you have to be able to answer much harder questions than those you are quoting. Questions like this do appear at the start of foundation papers, but then they move on to harder material. You are right that some children at 11 can answer gcse level questions (at my DD's very average comprehensive some students get 4+ in Year 7). Other students dont get a 4 in Year 11. There are next steps for those students to help them progress into work and FE (that can be resits or functional skills level 1 or 2).
I would think about how you are discussing low attainment. How do you think your comments make the parents of low attaining children feel? Passing GCSE maths and english requires more thsn very basic literacy & numeracy.
Im sure we would both agree that we need a better funded education system so that all young people get a better education.

I totally agree with this, the number of students who enter high school now nit being able to access the circulum is rather troubling. The children's centres where doing great work until their funding was cut. It really is important to start early.

Trying to catch up at high school is hard work and requires a lot of resources. If they are all ready for high school first you've wone half the battle.

Dd sat her gcse this year (last academic year), I’d be interested to know how they set grade boundaries as they didn’t sit year 6 SATs due to covid.