London waitlists -- not moving?

[cathwilsonreid]

It seems to me that the waitlists (for in-demand state secondary schools) are not moving as much in London as they have in previous years (or at least according to what others have told me -- i.e., they were X place on wait list, got a place in July.) I'm supposing it's the effect of the VAT?

Does this seem true to anyone else?

Anecdotally yes you're right. VAT is having a huge impact. Sept 25 was always going to be the key milestone as it's when parents decided not to start the independent school journey ie Yr R/1, 7 + 9.

I would anticipate it is an issue for the statistically tiny cohort of parents who enter their child for multiple selective schools, both state and private, in numerous local authorities, both within and outside Greater London. In the past, there would have been more opportunity for parents to negotiate generous scholarships/ bursaries based on offers.

The vast majority of London’s children received an offer from one of their preferred schools this year. Pan-London Admissions reported, on secondary National Offer Day, that over 70% of children in London received their first preference, over 90% one of their top three preferences, and just under 95% received one of their preferred schools.

there's a declining birth rate, which started with the cohort born in 2012 and has continued to decline since. In my London borough, catchments for desirable schools are actually increasing.

Mine are a bit older but friends with younger children were saying the SW London wait lists for the more ‘desirable’ schools were massive and not moving at all, compared to previous years.

Has been stated many many times that the Liz Truss fiasco had a far bigger impact on private school than the VAT increase

And its incorrect. Truss didn't cause a 67%+ closure rate for schools or make 16K kids leave mid-year

Actually if you read the threads on the topic you will find more people withdrew their children then than at any other point. I will see if I can find it. I'm not saying VAT didn't have an impact I'm pointing out the gross exaggeration in comparison.

Can you show me the data?

I'm getting ready for work. If you go through the Mumsnet search engine you can find it. I will definitely find it but not atm. I wasn't aware myself and that's where I learned it and the data was provided too.

I haven't got time either as going to work, usually if you claim something though then you need to have the data. I've been involved with this for 18 months and I haven't come across that data. Plus if it's a historical post then it wouldn't be up to date would it ie it won't have accounted for the full 16K which have left this year as many left in the last term OR the projected number leaving + not starting in Sept.
VAT has caused the largest exodus going to figures as of end of term and the exodus is still going, it isn't 1 year and done.

This is the data and it doesn't show what you are claiming. Even this is out of date now as the number of kids leaving = 16K

I haven't noticed that (working in a school). The birth rates drop have yet to hit secondary but apparently fewer parents got their preferred primary option because schools have closed/reduced forms.

Waitlists can move in September when kids do not turn up or have moved in summer.
Or turn up and change mind. Wait til end September.

And in terms of the numbers who leave my dcs school to private secondary they seem to up compared to previous years which did surprise me. I also know 3 dc who didn't pass high enough on the grammars but got subsidised places at various privates.

The school (very popular) also has dc who don't turn up in September.

always

16K kids didn't "leave mid-year". There's less kids on roll in private schools this year because the birth rate was declining. State primary schools are closing for this reason.
Closure rate is not +67% either, in fact new independent schools keep opening as usual.

When I last checked, Tiffin waiting list moved to the 40th person on it. Catchment for our local sought-for secondary didn't shrink either.

Decreased doesn't equal to "left", it's your interpretation.

Here is actisl data for openings/closures.
The only schools to open (bar 1) have been SEN specialist schools ie funded by EHCPS (LAs). They are lumped in as independent schools and majorly skew the data. Phillipson however omits to tell anyone this.

So 16K fewer kids by end of academic year 24/25 than the start of 24/25 doesn't = left. I mean, that's pretty much exactly what it means!
Nowt to do with falling birth rate if the number drops throughout the academic year is it?!
It's almost like there was something going on from Sept 24-July 25 which was causing 16K to leave independent schools constantly throughout the year........

Isn't Jan 24 & Jan 25 two different academic years? Wouldn't Jan 25 account for those who didn't start in Sep 24? I'm sure VAT has had an impact but I can't believe birth rates haven't impacted the independent sector too.

That's why I said Sept 24-July 25 cos that's the academic year! Between Sept 24-July 25 there was a sustained fall each month totalling 16K by July 25.

I only looked at the table posted at 3:30am. 3:30 am! you must be exhausted, have you slept at all?

Yeh that's the last published data but isn't about student numbers. The ISC did a census survey in Sept and one I think in July, not released yet but the tracked figures of pupil numbers from Sept 24- July 25 = 16K fewer throughout the year. Majority have moved into state schools.
Sept 25 starts will include those who decided not to start the independent journey so will be interesting to compare.

Anecdotally schools are reporting 10-15% leavers per school this academic year. That's why there has been a 67%+ closure rate, 15% fewer children = financially unsustainable. So we expect many more to close next year, indeed there were approx 44 more closures than on that table after Jan 25 as the data collection stopped there.

Unfortunately Labour chose not to monitor or track or collect data on this so they can keep gaslighting everyone as per PP above by including specialist SEN schools in the open/close data 😡

The joys of peri-menopause!