GCSE Statistics (Edexcel) 2025

[OverripeBananaBread]

Anyone else's DC awaiting results for this? How are they feeling about it.

Does anyone know how this year's paper compares to previous ones and if the grade boundaries will be similar?

Until they release the grade boundaries noone knows.

Thanks @Spirallingdownwards

Do they vary much year to year then?

That info is available online. I just checked 2024, 2023 and 2019 (no point IMHO checking 2022 as it was an oddity wrt GBs bc Covid) and they were pretty similar - 120-125 for a grade 9, 65-68 for a grade 6.

GBs can vary from year to year but in practice they tend not to, as exams are standardised to be of similar difficulty year on year.

I've no idea about the exam itself but as I say, it is likely to be at a similar standard to previous years. is there a reason why you are especially worried about this exam? It's not a GCSE many schools offer so a specific grade is unlikely to be needed.

Thanks @clary

No, no real reason to be concerned, as you say it's a bit of an outlier and DC sat it in year 10 so it's a bonus extra that can be ignored!

Just interested as it's our first experience of an externally marked exam and all new to us. I don't know anyone else whose DC have sat it because it is not common so tried here rather than irl!

DC didn't say much about how it went but got pretty consistent marks on last paper tests so was wondering how much of a predictor those might be.

I'm an exam marker and in my subject they don't even start the grade boundary discussions until the paper is nearly fully marked so it's impossible to make any predictions in advance. Its possibly been done recently or only being done now.

That's really interesting @examseason - is that to ensure that only x% of entrants achieve y and z grades? So if it was a poor performing cohort overall you could get a better grade than you would have in previous years, even if the paper was of a similar standard?

If the paper was a similar standard with a large enough cohort you wouldn't expect the boundaries to move much from year to year

Movements would be if the students overall found the paper to be much easier or harder than the norm

I can't speak for how the boundaries are arrived at, it's not something I'd be involved in as an examiner, I believe it's a subject leader and chief examiner responsibility and possibly is different for different papers

Agree with @examseason - while in theory GBs could move from year to year, in practice the cohort is so big that they don't. Ime anyway (15+ years of exams boundary awareness as teacher and parent).

Every year parents on a GCSE thread will say "my DC and all their friends found it hard so the GBs will be lower" but that's a faint hope IMO.

I wouldn't worry @OverripeBananaBread - if the mocks were similar to the exam (eg were actual past papers) and were marked using the MS then they will be an accurate guide tbh.

"DC sat it in year 10 so it's a bonus extra that can be ignored!" It can't be ignored as such and has to be declared going forward so on UCAS forms for uni and whenever you are asked for your GCSE grades.

Usually there is a year 11 Further Maths GCSE course instead of continuing with Statistics if everyone sits the paper. Both my children did GCSE statistics but the class proved to be mixed ability and the decision was made for the whole class to not continue on to Further Maths. They spent both years 10 and 11 doing Statistics. One got grade 8 one got grade 9.

For exams they are measured against their cohort so mocks give a general idea of where a child lands but the grade boundaries move to reflect the performance of the students sitting the paper. Depending on the school cohort the class can move at a faster pace, hence sitting Stats in year 10 because they may well have finished the syllabus. Others will take 2 years to cover the same content.

This is an image of how grade boundaries have changed over the years for Edexcel iGCSE Maths. As you can see, the boundaries have changed quite a lot over the years. For instance, to get a 6 in Covid years you only needed 64 marks, while in recent years you needed 88. That is a huge difference of course. For Edexcel iGCSE, there has been a trend towards needing higher marks each year, with the exception of the Covid years. source: 1:46min at

You can compare maths grade boundaries for all boards here: https://mathsbot.com/gcse/boundaries

My understanding from other threads was that unis only take the best 8 of your grades into consideration? And that they prefer the GCSEs to be taken in the same year? I know nothing about it really but had read this elsewhere (around private schools putting DC in for more subjects and or taking them over a couple of years and that not being a thing anymore).

Slightly moot as I think (if we can use past papers and mocks as an indicator) that she'll be absolutely fine and it won't be something she needs to ignore.

The plan is for them to move into FM in the autumn but I imagine there may be some changing of plans of the results aren't as hoped.

Wow 20+ marks is a huge change!

Thanks @clary that's reassuring.

They (as a class) all seemed to consistently do ok on past papers (taken from exam board website and marked using MS) so hopefully they've been well taught and prepared and get decent results in August!

Indeed it is. But that's IGCSE and it includes the Covid years. No GCSE exams were sat in those years in England. I don’t know how Covid affected GBs for IGCSE but since most DC in England don’t sit it, it’s not perhaps as relevant as GCSE.

Edexcel GCSE maths between 2017 (first year of current spec) and 2024 – excluding 2020-2022 bc Covid – sees the GB for grade 9 vary from 190 to 203; but if we exclude 2017 (I know that might seem random, but it was the first year of the spec and no one knew much about it tbf) then the variation is just five marks, from 198 to 203. Out of 240 possible marks, so not very much at all. That's much more representative IMHO.

203/240 feels like you could drop a lot of marks and still get a 9!

I'm so glad I don't have to do exams any more. Interesting that when I did do my GCSEs I had no real concept of grade boundaries, marks and results etc. I feel like DC are given more insight into markschemes and predicted grades than we were.

Well yes, you could drop 37. A grade 9 that year was about 85%. Glancing at the AQA GBs for last year, some subjects had a lower % (biology 141/200, Eng lit 121/160) and some about the same (French 195/240, German 202/240). It doesn't mean it’s easy to gain all grade 9s tho! In fact a tiny tiny % of DC do that. Despite what you read on MN :D

Yes universities look at your best 8 grades but you still have to list everything you took, the year you took it and the grade you got.

The majority of students take 9 GCSEs, so 4 options plus maths, English Lit, English lang, Combined Science which gives 2 grades for the 3 science subjects. So when unis take the best 8 grades they are usually just ignoring 1 GCSE. The next highest number of students taking GCSEs is 8 GCSEs, not 10. Some schools only offer 8 GCSE options.

This link below shows you the number of students taking GCSEs, the number who got all 9s (only 1270 out of 667,340 but it ranges from 7 GCSEs taken to 11 or more GCSEs taken) and the split across the country etc. You have to remember that MN is skewed on posting about very academic children but there are threads every year about the actual average UK child. There is a curve applied to all exams, hence the boundaries moving every year and some children no matter how hard they try are forced to get grades 3 and below.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/infographic-gcse-results-2024/infographics-for-gcse-results-2024-accessible

Grade 9s are worked out after the marks are all in, it is a percentage to show the highest academic performers. It isn't about how many marks the grade 9s "dropped" (technically you don't drop any marks, you start with zero and gain them) it is about how those students performed compared to the grade 7s. Both 9s then 8s are worked out from that.