A level predicted grades?

[Alevelprep25]

Hello, eldest doing his A levels next year and we just received his predicted grades. He is very good at computer science, had a score of 80% and is few percentage points away from an A. He was predicted an A though. Can someone explain to me how predictions work? With another year to go I think it would be fair to assume he will get an A next year? I assumed that if you're at the top of your grade they automatically bumb you up to the nest?

Not necessarily. Btw I assume the bolding means he was predicted A but was a few points away from A-star?

As an example, DS2 in Sept of year 13 was working at an A in maths; but his maths teacher said that the work to come was much harder and he would really have to push it hard to get an A at the end. He gained a B at the end of year 13.

The school’s prediction is what they think he is likely to get at the end of year 13; but it’s not as simple as taking the year 12 grade and adding percentage points. I don’t know the CS syllabus, but I know the MFL one. If you were close to an A-star in that at the end of year 12, having done the Yr12 work, that wouldn't necessarily mean an A-star in year 13. The A2 work builds on the AS work and expands it; topics are more searching, level of research needed is higher, level of skills needed is more.

No one can tell you as every school has a different policy for predicted grades. Some, as you have assumed, predict the next grade up, assuming a student will improve. Others won’t predict a grade you’ve never demonstrated capability of. Some will actually predict less than your mocks, if your coursework,
classwork and effort are at odds with that grade.

Not sure how I managed to do the bolding in the original post! But thank you for the replies. We had a talk about this beginning of the year and they did say they try to be 'optimistic' in their predictions but I will look up their policy if one exists online.

Does anyone still do AS?

I referenced AS in my post, but that's just a reference to how the course is structured. No, most schools don't offer AS. It does still exist tho (I conducted a speaking exam for a student taking it privately this year).

The predicted grades system is so unfair as each school does it differently. Some schools are optimistic and others are much more cautious. As offers are made on predicted grades, students at an ‘optimistic’ school are at a major advantage, particularly as many unis accept dropped grades on results day.

Y13 work is generally more difficult than Y12 work so if he's not achieving extremely highly on AS work, then it's not safe to assume he will get an A* next year.

That said, the predicted grades that he has been given on his school report aren't necessarily the same grade that they will put on a UCAS application. My school would predict what we think they will actually get on the school report, but if a borderline pupil asks us to predict higher for uni and has a plan for how they will improve their grade then we would put higher on UCAS.

Our collefe has a policy on thier website explaining it. It says something like 'realistic, but optimistic' something about on a good day this is what they believe they would get. Then some spiel how they won't change them, pride thuer accuracy etc.

The school had a talk re this earlier in the year and they did say they will be 'optimistic'' with regards to their predictions. Hence the confusion. If you're a 1% point away from an A* surely you're almost there.

I think predictions are often a bit overly optimistic. DD was predicted AAB and she got BBC. The uni she is at still accepted her despite saying she would need ABB.

I think pp is right that next years content can be harder if it builds on this year.

Certainly in maths my ds went from A * easily to just about an A with the next years content

I appreciate this. But to be precise this is his predicted grade for computer science. He is really good at it and my DP is in the field. I don't think the work for next year will hold him back, they only have 2 topics to go to completed the curriculum for next year. For reference he is predicted a C for physics and we are not even arguing this.

OP - I feel your pain. DS achieved over 90% in his FM mock, which his school state is an A*. However, as his grade in normal maths was lower, his UCAS prediction is just A. We cannot understand this as it is ruling him out from so many university courses.

Yes, still here in Wales.

I think a good question to ask is, if he is really good at it, why didn't he do better in the exam? Why should the school assume he is going to do better next year on a more difficult exam (there's coursework too for CS isn't there?).

If he can approach the school with evidence that the exam was a blip and he normally does better, or that he has a clear action plan for improvement, they might be more inclined to put a higher grade on his UCAS.

He just submitted his NEA for computer science the Friday before we got the predicted grades so I am assuming this wasn't taken into account potentially. My son has special needs so what we had through out his education are teachers who most often than not underestimate his abilities. As he can seem unfocused in class due to lack of eye contact etc but he does perform when it comes to the big exams. He was also predicted an 8 in his GCSES computer science exams and archived a 9 in the real test. He is going to speak with the head of 6th form tomorrow to understand the reasoning of the school and explain his perspective.

DS also has special needs and it is issues related to his SN which means that the school have marked down his predictions from his mock results. It is so frustrating that this can happen.

Predicted grade are unreliable Ucas to help schools improve accuracy of predicted grades | Tes

Universities would help schools improve the reliability of predicted grades by not requiring e.g AAA predicted grades to get an offer but then when a student gets ABB on results day, accepting them anyway. Students often need certain predicted grades to get the offer, but don’t need those grades to get in. Kids are actively disadvantaged if schools don’t predict high.

We do in Wales. It’s very useful I think.

Predictions in school also aren’t necessarily what goes on a ucas application either- they might do different ones

Agree and what school or teacher doesn't want to give their students the best possible chance of getting into their preferred university. I hate this system and think people should apply once they have their grades, but I'm afraid too many people with invested interests to change the system..

many teachers - myself included- are reluctant to predict above as you just don’t know what will happen. Life isn’t a straight line. Loads can happen. I also don’t like predicting A* because the boundaries are so high - one small lapse in concentration and it’s lost.

Some of my DDs friends were unable to apply for certain uni courses because of lower predicted grades. One took a year out after being unable to apply for preferred courses because of low predicted grades and now has a place at a uni of their choice starting this September having got the grades they needed last August. Extremely frustrating for the family as a whole. Its always worth a thorough discussion with the school about them if they are not what your DC needs and seem below your realistic expectations. I agree that many unis allow students to drop grades on results day. Another friend got in to her first choice uni after being asked for ABB but actually getting BBCC. It's a minefield!