Correlation between GCSE grade and subsequent A level grade

[INeverSeeYou]

Someone helpfully posted the above data for Maths, but does this exist for other subjects?

Particularly interested in Art and Physics for DC.

It’s not as granular but this has almost the same data:

https://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/Images/674348-progression-from-gcse-to-a-level-2018-2020.pdf

So… only 13% of grade 7s get an A/A* at A level for physics but art is 47%

Thanks so much for this @Rhayader , and for highlighting those figures in particular.

That would make sense to me tbh. Art is really difficult to get a 7-9 in at GCSE, the work load is huge and the analysis is advanced at that level, but that knowledge feeds well into A Level Art. It's a very natural continuation, you're not necessarily doing anything massively new, you're just doing more the GCSE stuff and are expected to do a lot more alone. If someone needed a lot of hand holding and reminding to get their 7 in Art, they could easily struggle at A Level. That's very different to Science A Levels where the jump in actual difficulty and amount of content is massive. I can see how someone who got a 7 at GCSE through hard work, could easily struggle at A Level. Biology A level is famously content heavy and very different to GCSE. A Level Physics includes a whole new level of maths. Because science is so vast, in some ways you're learning a whole new subject.

I’m actually quite surprised because that’s students who take gcse physics — not double science. For double science only 6% of 7s go on to get A/A* in A level!

Honestly I'm not at all surprised, the jump from GCSE to A Level has always been huge, even before the reform and a lot of kids who get 7s and 8s start them with quite a cocky attitude and get humbled quick. @noblegiraffe is on here every year warning people to not do Maths A Level with a 7.
If you compare a Stem GCSE and A Level past paper it's like looking at two different subjects. I strongly believe if you had to work for the 7 in the STEM subject, it'll be a hard slog.

Saying that, I think A Levels are unnecessarily difficult.

I think maybe my mind is a bit warped because of grade inflation. If a 7 is an A, getting an A at gcse was not going to mean that you would do badly at A Level when I was at school even in stem subjects

The warning is to not do A-Level maths with a 6.

The data posted above should be considered with the caveat that the CAGs from 2020 were much higher than usual (37% A*/A vs 25% in 2019, 28% in 2024).

As a History teacher I would say not to take A level without a minimum of a Grade 6 - and probably a 7 at GCSE and even then you need to be realistic. I've had 8/9 students go on to do A level and be upset to find they are struggling to get past a B grade. Because of 'bums on seats' a lot of schools will take for A level with a 4/5 at GCSE.

The jump from GCSE to A level is a big one. To be honest, a bright student who puts the revision in should be able to get a Grade 7 in most subjects because it's generally just getting information down to a certain extent and if you mug up the topic and regurgitate the facts then you'll do pretty well.

A level requires (certainly in my subject) a depth of analysis, critical evaluation and a flair for writing that is way harder than just 'the facts'.

The jump from GCSE to A Level in languages is a shocker. I would strongly discourage doing it with less than a 7 at GCSE. It's interesting the variation between French, German and Spanish on that table!

I find these kind of threads a bit depressing. It is like everyone wants their dc to attain As and A* at A level. An E is still a pass at A level, as is a D, C and B. There is so much pressure on teachers that many don't want students with less than a 7/ 8 doing their subjects as a consequence - not everyone will get top grades and that is fine.

An E at A Level may not be a technical fail, but it has little else going for it.

I agree that it always seems so negative.

DD got a 7 in maths at GCSE and all her mocks are showing at lest a B possibly even an A at A-level which I think is fantastic. She also struggled with the number of different subjects at GCSE but has found studying A-levels easier as she doesn't have lots of different subjects to study at once.

Self selecting sample. It's far more likely that A level Art cohorts will be comprised of those who have a real ability/interest and are able to produce work that meets the marking scheme - nobody's going to need to take it even if they aren't that happy with the subject (or the Maths involved) because they or their parents want them to get into medical school.

To say D and E aren’t fails is being disingenuous. By what metric are they not a fail? Those grades certainly won’t be seen as a pass by anyone in the real world.

My son got 5s in all subjects except RE where he got a 7. He ended up with ABB at A level (A in Psychology) so with a lot of motivation and application it is possible to make huge leaps. A levels and long form essay writing actually suited him and his neurodivergent brain much more than GCSEs.

Probably different for Maths and other STEM subjects though.

Yeah I wasn’t really questioning the art grades but OP specifically asked for them.

That's not the warning I'm talking about. Noble giraffe posts the table every year and a shockingly low amount of kids with a 7 get an A in A Level maths.
Obviously people need to apply that to their own situation, look at the syllabus, A Level Maths is algebra heavy so that being a strength would obviously help but anecdotal situations about A Levels not being that hard don't discredit actual statistics.

I think the point is that if a child got a 7 at GCSE level, the natural expectation is that that level of attainment would be carried on into A Levels, so an expectation of an A shouldn't be that surprising, yet the statistics show that actually not that many 7s at GCSE turn into As at A Levels.
Everyone's situation is different and kids mature at different ages, statistics are just that.

This is common with SEN kids at post 16. Many fly when given the opportunity to study a small amount of subjects at a higher level. The load of GCSEs is often just too much for most people, let alone those with processing difficulties, esp if they're having to do that in subjects they don't even like. But it's important to remember 5s turning into As is unusual. Amazing achievement, but unusual. Also unless you have an internal 6th form with A Levels, it's unlikely any external A Level provider would accept someone with 5s.

Nail on the head. A bright and motivated student shouldn't have much difficulty getting grade 7 at GCSE in most subjects really, whether they have any actual interest in it or not as a lot of it really is just regurgitating content from memory with a bit of application and understanding, especially in sciences. To get a decent A level grade, you need to "live and breathe" it as the leap from GCSE to A level is absolutely huge in sciences and Maths particularly but also in other subjects too. As others have said, a lot of the A level content is new content that the GCSE student won't have studied previously so it really isn't just taking the GCSE content a stage further!

@WomensRightsRenegade

To say D and E aren’t fails is being disingenuous. By what metric are they not a fail? Those grades certainly won’t be seen as a pass by anyone in the real world.

Well, accountancy professional bodies accept A level grades A* to E in their entry requirements criteria, and they're pretty much the "real World". Other professional bodies etc have similar criteria.

Lower tier universities also accept D&E grades at A level for certain degree courses, and once you have a degree, your A levels are pretty much irrelevant.

Cambridge assessment report out for 21-23 v soon, this will give a better idea as 2023 results almost back to normal. 20-22 v Covid affected. Will post when see it!

Really a 7 is a scraped A at best.

If you look at the percentages the same percentage get an 9 now that used to get an A in the noughties, and a similar percentage get an 8 as used to get an A. 7-9 to 9 has been badged as the new A/A but really I think 7's are on the low side.