How often do places come up?

[NeonTangerine]

My daughter is first on the waiting list for an oversubscribed secondary school. I know that no one can tell me one way or another but the uncertainty is driving me slightly mad and I am wondering how likely it is a place will come up before September. Although she's first on the list, the year group is currently one over, meaning two places have to come free in order for her to get one. Year group intake is around 350, it's a big school.

What's driving me mad is not knowing whether we should just proceed as normal with the school that she HAS a place at. When do I buy uniform, and what do I do with it if she then gets a place at this preferred school? Do I send her for transition days even though we're all hoping she won't go there? I am imagining this going on into August or even September, when I expect it's quite likely that perhaps a couple of kids won't take their place. But in the meantime, we could be moved down the waiting list if there are successful appeals or other late applications with higher priority than us. So there is just no way of knowing.

I feel like we're very likely to get a place at some point, but I don't know how long my nerves will hold out and when I will feel like we need to get uniform and be prepared for Option 2. It's so stressful!

My DD switched to her first choice school after 4 weeks. She was a lot lower down the list than your DD! We're in London where there is a lot of movement but I would say don't give up hope. I seem to recall a bit of movement early July.
We bought uniform for the school she was starting at and she did all the transition events. I only bought one of the items with the school logo but I do wish I'd bought less of the other items. I certainly wouldn't buy anything at this stage if she's so high.

As you say no one can tell you if you will get a place. 350 is a big intake as you are aware, so I would imagine some movement is more likely than with a smaller school. But otoh in some schools there is very little movement at all – it can also depend on the area (big cities and of course London have the most movement).

In terms of what you should do, I would advise for sure you send your DD to the transition days at her current offered school; she may well go there and even if she doesn’t, the experience will be useful in many ways (lots of things are similar about secondary school, like moving from one class to another and lots of specialist teachers).

Is the uniform mostly standard that will work for both schools? Or is there a lot of branded? How easy is it to buy the branded kit – do you have to order it or is it available to buy as and when? The offered school can answer these questions to help you see how late you can make the purchase. But ultimately she may start at one school and be offered a place at the other a week later. In that case you are having to buy two uniforms.

Do you local schools have a transition day in July when year 6 all visit their new secondary school for a day? In my area there is usually a flurry of offers after this because the Admissions Team contact the families of students who don't turn up to ask them if they still want the place. Then the same thing happens in the first week of September when some students don't turn up.

Our local uniform shop tells people to keep tags on blazers etc if children are near the top of waiting lists as they know there are always lots of returns.

Is there only one waiting list or several for different bands? This will change the meaning of being first.

Thank you for all the answers! This is all really helpful.

@Giftedsleeper only one waiting list, so we really think she's bound to get in at some point. It's just if that happens in September when some kids don't turn up, it's more disruptive than if we find out sooner.

@vinoclock yes there is a two day transition in July and you are absolutely right, this could be a trigger for a place coming up! I will keep my fingers crossed for that. Somehow I hadn't even considered that we could return the blazer, that's a good point.

@Vinorosso74 was it hard moving after four weeks when everyone was settled in?

It was fine as she knew people from primary school and two or three from some other activities. The only downside was she missed all the transition stuff to that particular school.

As far as I understand it, the two main driver of waiting list movements are people moving elsewhere and people accepting places at private schools.

In London, and especially in certain areas of London, the latter is a huge driver.
In an area with few private schools, not so much.

Where are you?

Also look at whether your council publishes data on the previous years. Some councils, but not all, publish data comparing March vs September. E.g. they will tell you that at a certain school the maximum distance was, I don't know, 1000 metres in March and 2,000 in September. This can give you a sense of what you might expect

@NeonTangerine In some areas, including mine, there is also a significant dampener on Waiting List movement. We get a lot of inward migration of late applicants who rent properties close enough to leapfrog others on the waiting list. So if your area is like that, watch out for your position going down.

@NeonTangerine when are the appeals being heard for your preferred schools? Or have they been already and that is why the school is currently one over PAN?

Other legitimate reasons for being one over PAN might be that their admissions policy says that they will always accept twins/triplets etc, or a late EHCP application that names the school, or correction of an error.

Yes, that's why - it was a successful appeal.

We do have three private schools nearby, so this could definitely be a factor! Thanks.

Okay, so that's sort of good news (unless there are late appeals...). If they were one over with 30 appeals to be heard, that would be less encouraging.