School Appeal. Wording of school's case

[SecondaryAppealQuestion2025]

We are appealing for a year 7 place for our child; we received the school's case today.

Part of the case describes how the school have allocated a total of X places, where X = PAN + Y. Y is made up of an over-allocation of a small number of places above PAN on National Offer Day, plus a similarly small number of others who have been admitted since then (all for very good reason, e.g. EHCPs).

Later in the case, a table of the number of students expected in 2025/26 is given. The total expected for Year 7 is again X = PAN + Y.

We think the waiting list as constituted on March 3rd has not moved, i.e., no further places have been released. We infer this because the only indicator we have - our position on the waiting list - has not changed, which could only happen if there was no movement OR if any movement above us has been offset by exactly the same number of new entrants.

Taking all this together, the impression given is that not a single one of the X = PAN + Y students has refused their offer. While this is possible it seems unlikely; PAN is large, and you would think at least one child would have moved, or gone off to a private school, or something, since the application deadline last year.

And moreover, I am concerned the language in the school's case is very carefully chosen. The number of allocated places is not the same as the number who have accepted those offers. And the number expected might be read to not account for any who have subsequently rejected their offer; your expectation depends on how carefully you think about it!

But this is important, since the prejudice to the school of admitting an appellant depends on the number of offers that will convert to students in 2025/26, not the number they gave out.

So, two questions

1/ Are we overthinking; is it more likely that, in fact, the school has X = PAN + Y students currently holding an active offer, and so this year just no one has rejected one?

2/ If we ask this question during the Stage 1 appeal, I think there a danger the representative of the school (not the headteacher, but we are told a long-retired teacher) will turn around and say "the school has not provided the information". So is it worth trying to ask in advance? Am I even allowed to?

The panel absolutely need to know how many accepted places there are for September, so if you don't ask I'm sure they will. If the answer is we don't know, the panel will I suspect send them out to ask!

"expected" also might mean they expect to fill declined places from the list, and not fall back to PAN (which many schools that over offer do)

Thank you. So under the second interpretation, imagining that there were Z offers that had been rejected by the recipient, does that mean that Z appeals must win (assuming that many appeals with a non-zero case are heard). Since the school has demonstrated by its past actions and words in its appeal case that it is happy to admit up to PAN + Y? Or is it more nuanced than that?

This is always an interesting one, where a school has over offered BUT expects to fall back to PAN. This often happens around where I am in order to ensure that every year six is offered a place, due to the higher percentage of secondary students who go to Private in the end- in the majority of cases the schools do drop back to PAN or near it by September.

There is always an argument to be made that they must be prepared to take that many over because they offered it. However, the school will argue that there will still be extreme prejudice if they did take that number of children and it's not something they do lightly, and the precedent is it doesn't really happen. Being prepared to do something that is unlikely doesn't mean it comes without prejudice.

So no, it doesn't mean that many Appeals must be won. It does mean that School will need to put up a good case as to why not though.

Thank you very much, I understand. I suppose we just try and argue our case as best we can and cross our fingers!