Yr10 mock results - how accurate are they in your experience?

[Toomanyminifigs]

My DS has been given very high grades in a few of his Yr10 mocks. (8's and 9's). He has an autism diagnosis and an EHCP. These grades have come as a bit of a surprise to me and, I think, to the school! (One of the subject teachers got his paper rechecked by another teacher to make sure the grade was correct.) He does have rather a spikey profile though and for maths, he's looking like a borderline pass.

While of course it's wonderful that he's done so well, it does throw up a bit of a dilemma.
As he has an EHCP, his post-16 setting needs to be named by March - ie well before GCSEs have even been taken.
The school that he's currently at has a high achieving sixth form which ideally he would like to attend (partly due to familiarity). Obviously if he does achieve something close to the mock results, that would be entirely possible.

We do have a plan B if things don't go well next year. Given his diagnosis and profile, there is a chance he could have a massive wobble and walk out/not write anything.

Of course DC - neurotypical or not - have 'bad' days in exams for many reasons but I would be interested to hear how Yr10 mock results have compared to young people's actual results. Are they usually pretty accurate? I'm sure the schools don't just randomly make up the grades but I am also surprised that his school give out 9's in Yr10 mocks as it feels a bit 'risky'.

Many thanks for reading.

Ime the actual grades tend to be slightly better as (generally speaking) kids put in more work at the 11th hour when they realise that the real exams matter. So they may go into mocks having done less revision and also schools support with revision etc closer to the real exams. This is however child dependent, did your ds revise a lot for these? Congrats to him either way for some fab results

Were the mocks whole 'real' papers, or just mocked up ones cobbled from a selection of previous ones?

It’s not a given, but he’s shown he’s fully capable of achieving highly so it’s perfectly possible.
Can you name the provision with the option to cancel if he qualifies for sixth form?

Varies wildly by child. DS1 did better in mocks and got a bit complacent, DS2 reacted to poor mocks by really knuckling down and pulling up from a 4 to an 8.

The real mocks in Oct/Nov of Yr 11 are the grades used to apply to post16 sixth forms and colleges. I’d encourage him to apply to any he meets the grades for.

Do take tours and discuss how the school accommodates ND students. The one that is ‘the best’ may not be the best learning environment for your DS.

I have a DD with ASD and she got great GCSE grades and opted for a small sixth form that had great provision for students with SEN (they had quiet rooms, outdoor space, no minimum attendance required- can do the work from home if burnt out on people, etc) the course schedules were designed so she only had to go in 3 days a week- so she rarely missed a day.

The really big, very highly regarded sixth form was noisy, crowded, all about the socialising and deliberately did the course schedules so you’d be stuck there all day 5 days a week because you’d have a class at 9am and then a huge break with a class at 1pm. They then expected you to be involved in various societies and extracurriculars. My DD couldn’t have coped. As an autistic person she needs time and space alone.

Thanks so much for your replies.

My DS did work hard for his mocks but certainly in the subjects he's excelled in, it helped that the questions that came up were on his 'favourite' topics so he was 'lucky' in that respect so I think that may have 'skewed' the results a bit.

That's a good question @TeenToTwenties about the papers. We've got parents' evening coming up so I will ask that.

Thanks for your kind words @KnickerlessFlannel . I am so proud of him. In Yr7, he wouldn't even attempt some of this end of year exams. Even if his actual GCSE grades are nowhere near his mocks, I feel much more confident he will get some passes which will help to keep so many more doors open to him.

@Annascaul Thank you for the suggestion. I think we can name his current setting and then if he really bombs in his GCSEs we can hold an emergency annual review after the results come out to get another setting named. (I will need to check this though). It's also about managing his expectations. The other option is we could start him in the sixth form and review it after six months or so.

It definitely sounds promising. The only caveat I would give is regarding reusing of tests. It isn't unusual for schools to use GCSE past papers for end of year 10 exams. If your DC had already studied these at home, that would potentially inflate his grade.
If he is doing well in homework / end of module tests, then it is more likely that the grades are a true reflection of where he is at.

@SugarandSpiceandAllThingsNaice Thank you so much for your detailed reply. That is really interesting and helpful. Well done your DD! I'm not convinced my DS will be able to cope with 3 A-levels (and probably Maths GCSE retake) so that is definitely a conversation we will need to have with all possible post-16 settings.
I think with an EHCP there is room for a bit more flexibility? I think they can also do three years in sixth form so it may be possible for him to spread things out a bit more.
I do hear you about 'outstanding' settings and SEN. That is another concern I have.
It's lovely to hear that your DD is doing so well. I don't suppose her setting is in London is it? It sounds ideal!

My autistic child’s mock results have gone up and down wildly so I would take those high grades with a pinch of salt. There have been differences of 4 grades from one exam to the next. Just keep doing what you’re doing and see what happens on results day.

DD went from AAABBBCCDD (a particularly awful set of results considering her actual ability.. little to no revision done - both myself and her teachers were very disappointed!) to A*AAAABBBBC in the real thing. To be honest she still could’ve worked harder and done better but they got her to where she needed to be which is what mattered.

If they were a complete surprise I would double check that the school didn't use past papers that your DS had already used for practice just in case that helped his results.

Also double check if the highly academic sixth form has provision for maths GCSE resit or whether it requires 4s in English and maths as a condition of entry.

Hi, I just wanted to say you can ask the council to consult colleges and sixth forms so he has all the options and then when they do his EHCP in march as long ashes had some positive consults back they can name by type (mainstream FE college or sixth form with additional support) and then he can choose where he wants to go once he gets his results. This is very normal as not many 16 year olds are sure in March of Y11.

@JustGotToKeepOnKeepingOn Thank you. Yes. This is one of my concerns too. His previous results have been decent (6's in his 'strong' subjects) but this seems quite a big jump. I do suspect that for DC with autism, it's harder to 'predict' grades' as their profile is so spikey and so much can depend on the day. My DS has a complete phobia of flies for example. If one flew into the exam room, he would run out and refuse to return.

@noblegiraffe I have long been an admirer of your many posts and how generous you are with your time to help DC/parents with maths queries. I do know that his school's sixth form do have provision for maths and english GCSE retakes. They don't like it though!
English lit and lang are two of the subjects he's scored 8's and 9's in so I'm fairly confident that even on a bad day he should get a 'strong pass'. Maths is a whole different issue though. (I think I will need to start a separate thread about his bizarre Maths difficulties.)

I also think you and other posters are correct, I have a feeling he may have seen some of the questions or at least the topics before from what he said after the mocks. Although, I'm assuming that certainly with humanity subjects, there are topics that come up over and over again in the GCSEs anyway.

As I say, I am surprised that his school have awarded him 9's as they must take all this into account and must be able to justify their grades.

Our year 10 mocks accurate lower than his capability grades (3/4/5) but he was an absolute pain in the arse flake in year 10, for him, the worse thing that could have happened would have been the grades he thought he should get. (His SAT scores predicted 9s across the board t give you some idea of how far he had fallen). It was the shock he needed.

His school then did their English Oral (real thing) in the July and with some work he got a distinction (no one was more surprised than his English teacher) and throughout year 11, working hard to catch up and not be a flake his predicted grades have steadily risen.

So they have been quite accurate and 8/9s end of year 10 is a great base to work from.

Apply to as many 6th form options as you want to, it’s not like schools where you get an offer from just one. Anything can happen in 12 months, he might decide a college setting is what he would prefer or take a different direction entirely or want to stay where he is. Options are great you don’t need to take them up.

I think you are right that predicted grades are harder to determine for some DC with SEN. Particularly for those whose grade on the day will depend on so much more than the content of the exam.

With the EHCP, it will be possible to do 2 A levels (could be alongside other interventions, PfA, etc.) if 3 would be too much, and sixth form doesn’t have to be just over 2 years.

A placement can be named for the phase transfer deadline, then amended following GCSE results, if necessary. Don’t worry about that. Personally, I would go with this rather than only naming the type of placement by the phase transfer deadline in March because a) at least there is a chance the EHCP won’t need amending following GCSE results (which your LA may drag out and it may not be finalised by September), b) if the LA names some other random setting you/DS don’t want, you can submit an appeal (although I’m not saying you can’t appeal even if they only named type, you can. I mean there is less chance of an unwanted surprise after results day that will mean you need to appeal when there isn’t the chance it will be settled by September), and c) case law dictates where LAs name mainstream as type, they should normally name a specific placement.

Thank you @perpetualplatespinning for your good advice - as always! Those are my feelings too. I am a bit familiar with the other mainstream 6th forms in our area and I know they wouldn't be suitable for him - even though they ironically, have lower grade entry requirements.
There's also the issue of transition for what is a relatively short period of time (2 or 3 years max). Some DC can of course benefit from a change of setting.

My 'gut' feeling is to give his school 6th form a go and we can always call an emergency annual review if things are going badly. There's no benefit in either his parents or the school 'setting him up to fail' if it's looking like he's unlikely to be able to keep up with the work.

We may have a clearer picture of how accurate the Yr10 mocks were after the Yr11 mocks anyway.

He's doing slightly less GCSEs than is 'standard' which is helping manage the workload - it's definitely a pathway I'd recommend to any parent with DC who have SEN, regardless of how 'strong' their academic profile.

Sorry, no we aren’t in London. We are in Cambridge.

Yes they have 3 years to accomplish level 3 education whether that is A levels or BTECs.

The other thing with y10 exams is that there are often many fewer to contend with: my y11 have 4 papers to sit (two this week) but only did one in year ten.

And the grade boundaries may well be set to give favourable results.

Broadly, though, if school are happy, that's a good sign.

DC with EHCPs are not limited to 3 years for post 16 education.

Following this as my DC is in year 10. Mocks are not until mid June (after GCSE exams are finished) and we have had no grades at all to date from actual assessments. Just target grades and percentage scores in tests. We decided that seven GCSEs would be enough to reduce the workload and give him some free periods in school. The local sixth form does some level 2 courses as well as level 3.

My DD ( SEN, with EHCP) did worse in mocks, she benefitted from the extra time between mocks and exams.
Does your DS have exam access arrangements and were they followed 100% during mocks? Sometimes schools don’t give full extra time in Mocks but just adjust the result accordingly which is very different. Also sometimes Mocks are “more relaxed and friendly” than real exams and it results in better grades.

My DD with EHCP is on her 4th year post school:
2 years at level 1, a gap year where she did functional skills English, now on a level 2.
From September we hope she will be doing a supported internship.

I am a mum of child with ASD too.

Currently my DC in year 11, GCSE time.

Mock exams in year 10 were based on papers from teachers. Except, Maths and English/Literature. They were checked by exam boards ( my child said). Predicted grades were 7-9.

Autumn mock exams in year 11 were the exams from the GCSE past pares 2024. Results were awful , from 3 to 7, predicted grades 7-9.

During Autumn term, while children did mock exams ( sometimes two at the day from different areas of knowledge), children continued to attend normal lessons including doing homework.

Meltdown and burning out returned 😢
Heart problems returned as well. Spent time at a hospital.

DC Dropped off Further Maths, swapped from Higher to Foundation Level in French. Both his favourite subjects.

Now, when DC getting medications and no any other lessons makes a mess at his head, I cherish a hope for him.

The best idea was to work through the past papers together. We worked on techniques looking on Mark Schemes. We also worked on timetable for the each exam: which order to reply, when get break or ask for a help, how lengthy should be answers, how much need to reply for the mark 1 and so on, command words easy explanation and etc.

It is really hard, school with all support was not enough. Their standards of help are general

Autistic children needed in an individual approach.

Thank you all for taking the time to share your experiences/advice.

If my DS gets 6s/7s in the real GCSEs, I will be absolutely over the moon for him. He tries so hard. I do agree that his results are probably harder to predict, given his ASD and his barriers to learning. He will also have specific difficulties accessing A levels I feel. I think he will definitely need 3+ years to get there and a more bespoke approach. I do think it's worth giving it a go though whilst having a back up plan if it doesn't work out.

We have parents evening coming up so I will have the opportunity to ask his teachers about his predicted grades and probe a bit more.

I find it surprising that any students are given 9's at this stage though as where is there to go? It feels a lot of pressure to maintain that. As I said before though, teachers must be able to justify it - it would do the schools no favours to be predicting high grades and then for DC to come out with 3's and 4's in the real thing.