@Jonny234
Perhaps increase the difficulty gradually over the course of the paper?
This is already the case in all math Olympiads which I'm aware of, including the JMO (the second paragraph in the markers report I linked to earlier refers to this). For that matter, I believe this is the case in all the UKMT first round challenges as well.
Do they really want to set the exam where the mean mark is somewhere between 1/4 and 1/3?
The very first paragraph in the 2024 Markers Report reads "This year’s paper [2024] turned out to be one of the easier papers in recent years, roughly similar to last year’s paper [2023], with correspondingly high thresholds for awards. The setting committee will be taking note of this when setting next year’s paper." I don't know how you read that, but that sounds kind of ominous to me. I read it as though they preferred the 2022 outcome to the 2023 outcome. As you pointed out, the mean score on Section B in 2022 was 25%. And the median score would have been lower than that because of the skew.
Actually, they don't care much about the mean or median scores. What's more important to them is that they be able to distinguish between the top 40-200 candidates, the medalists. That said, I suspect that they would be happy with a score distribution like the following, assuming 1460 children write the paper like last year:
Q1: 1300 make good progress (7-10 points on the question)
Q2: 949 make good progress (top 65% will get a Certificate of Merit)
Q3: 365 make good progress (top 25% will get a Certificate of Distinction)
Q4: 200 make good progress (they intend to award 100 Bronze Medals)
Q5: 100 make good progress (they intend to award 60 Silver Medals)
Q6: 40 make good progress (they intend to award 40 Gold Medals)
A score distribution like this would result in a mean score around 20, with a median score a couple of points lower.
Of course, it's never that clean, not every child who can do question 6 will necessarily be able to do all of questions 1-5.