Is there any hope?

[CheesyLeek]

Is there much movement on waiting lists at this point? Currently number 6 on an oversubscribed school.
Should I stay hopeful?

Definitely worth being hopeful.

It does depend on
-how many (total) places on offer
-how much mobility in the area (although that could move you down as well as up)
-do you live somewhere where some parents may be holding onto private school places until the last minute?

Definitely not a private school area. I think the school has places of around 240 for year 7 intake.

I can’t imagine being number 6 is very encouraging, what are the odds that 6 children don’t accept their place ☹️

I think it is pretty hopeful.
For some the school may not be first choice, so one person elsewhere moving house or going private can cause a ripple of movement.
Sometimes schools only know on Day 1 that a student isn't coming.

Act as if given school is the school, but maybe delay buying the expensive parts of the uniform until August.

It’s definitely hopeful….we started out on the wait list in March after offer day at position number 49. As of Friday last week we had made it up to position number 13 so don’t give up hope!

Fingers crossed we climb up the list then.
What affect will appeals have on it though? If the school allow some appeals I assume we will be bumped back up the list?

Sometimes schools hold back a few places for appeals and if there are fewer successful appeals than ring fenced places then these are released to the waiting list.
Schools want bums on seats as each child brings equivalent of a fee.

I'd expect you to get in just after transition day when a chunk of movement often happens. 6th place for 240 pan is a good number.

School are absolutely not allowed to do that. That would be against the admissions code, which has the force of law.

No places can be held back for potentially successful Appeals; If a School has more applications than it's PAN, It must offer up to PAN.

If appeals make them go over PAN then they can go back down to PAN before offering any more from the wait list.

So eg if you are #1 in wait list but 3 appeals accepted, then 4 people need to leave before they need to offer to you.

There can be no 'ring fenced places' held back pending successful appeals, as @PatriciaHolm has explained. The only schools allowed not to offer up to PAN are designated grammar schools, which only have to fill up to the limit of applicants qualified for a place, if this is less than PAN.

Also FYI folks, it is categorically not the school which 'allows' appeals. The representative of the admission authority for the school (exactly who this is depends on the type of school) and the parent each present their case to an Independent Appeal Panel. The school plays no part in the decision making re whether to uphold an appeal.

So if appeals are allowed that will take them over PAN? So even if people move then they won’t offer any more places?

looking at previous years, it doesn’t seem that they have had many successful appeals

Yes, appeals take the school over PAN.
Then they are allowed to not accept further pupils from the waiting list until the year size goes back under PAN again.

Thanks for explaining.

Feeling even less hopeful now tbh ☹️