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Original poster

Progress 8 question

31 replies

Everythingsgroovy · 05/04/2025 13:02

Can you expect Progress 8 scores for pupils with prior high attainment to be as high as for pupils with prior middle attainment?

I’d never looked beyond the headline Progress 8 score (bold below) before but am now wondering if comprehensive schools can cater for low, middle and high prior attainers or if that’s not really possible.

School A- 0.59 (Comprehensive with reputation for high achievement)
L 0.55 M 0.74 H 0.27

School B 0.29 (Comprehensive with reputation for nurturing)
L 0.64 M 0.24 H -0.01

School C -0.01 (Comprehensive with mixed/poor reputation)
L -0.35 M -0.12 H 0.64

School D 0.89 (Grammar school)
L N/A M 2.16 H 0.74

OP posts:
meeningless · 06/04/2025 23:10

Everythingsgroovy · 06/04/2025 23:06

@meeningless yes- H! How funny you could tell!

We’re very lucky to have such great choices. It’s been interesting to look beyond the headline figures and it’s made me realise even more that comprehensive schools really do have to be comprehensive!

No magic - I have the performance data all downloaded as a spreadsheet, so it was easy enough to filter for schools with the pattern of numbers you gave. 🙂

Sageteatowels · 12/04/2025 23:22

meeningless · 06/04/2025 08:58

"but am now wondering if comprehensive schools can cater for low, middle and high prior attainers or if that’s not really possible."

@Everythingsgroovy They should, but whether they can or not is dependent on their priorities and individual teachers' experience of teaching the most able.

Ofsted no longer judges schools by headline P8 data. Under the current Ofsted framework they use the School Inspection Data Summary report (IDSR) to highlight areas where schools might be underperforming. This is what it says about Key Stage 4 results: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/school-inspection-data-summary-report-idsr-guide#progress-and-attainment-at-key-stage-4

If a particular group score significantly below national data then Ofsted will focus on that to find out why.

My comprehensive school has a fantastic overall P8, but when the leadership team saw the IDSR they realised they were letting down higher attainers. It became a focus for the school development plan, and teachers are being given additional training on helping higher attainers to achieve top grades.

Edited

Can I access the ISDR data as a prospective parent? The web page you linked to requires a DfE login. Can I request this data from schools?

Sageteatowels · 12/04/2025 23:23

meeningless · 06/04/2025 08:30

It's also worth mentioning that P8 does not correct for demographics.

The University of Bristol have formed an "Adjusted Progress 8" measure which takes into account pupil age, gender, ethnicity, EAL, SEN, FSM, and residential deprivation: https://www.northernpowerhousepartnership.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Fairer-Schools-Index-Report-1.pdf

They are making a case for the DfE to formally adopt this measure and report it alongside P8.

Key findings are:

  • Adjusting for pupil background would see the national league table rankings of almost a quarter of schools (23.7%) change by over 500 places.
  • Adjusting for pupil background would lead 48% of schools currently judged ‘Well Below Average’ under Progress 8 to move up out of this banding.
  • The high average Progress 8 score seen in London more than halves when adjusted for pupil background. This is principally due to these schools teaching high proportions of high-progress ethnic groups. In contrast, the low average Progress 8 score seen in the North East improves substantially after adjustment due to the high proportions of poor and White British pupils taught in this region.
  • Other dramatic changes are seen for grammar schools and faith schools whose high average Progress 8 scores reduce substantially once the educationally advantaged nature of their pupils is considered. In contrast, the low average pupil progress seen in sponsored academies improves once the disadvantaged nature of their pupils is recognised.
  • Progress 8 effectively punishes schools teaching high proportions of disadvantaged pupils for the national underperformance of these groups.
  • Progress 8 can therefore be argued to give too much emphasis to schools, rather than Government or society, as primarily responsible for the national underperformance of these groups. In contrast, adjusted versions of Progress 8 can be viewed as rebalancing the responsibility more on society and Government, rather than schools.
Edited

My understanding was that P8 accounted for prior attainment (y6 sats?) which would already be affected by demographic impacts. Is that not correct?

meeningless · 13/04/2025 06:52

Sageteatowels · 12/04/2025 23:22

Can I access the ISDR data as a prospective parent? The web page you linked to requires a DfE login. Can I request this data from schools?

Show quote history

No, the IDSR only available to school leadership teams.

You can access all the underlying data, but unless you'd need to be a whizz at data analysis to re-create the IDSR yourself.

meeningless · 13/04/2025 07:59

Sageteatowels · 12/04/2025 23:23

My understanding was that P8 accounted for prior attainment (y6 sats?) which would already be affected by demographic impacts. Is that not correct?

Show quote history

P8 compares how much progress a student makes between the end of Key Stage 2 and the end of Key Stage 4 compared with students who started at a similar level at KS2.

Currently it compares them to all students so it doesn't correct for demographics. The adjusted P8 measure compares like with like. For example, it compares disadvantaged children with other disadvantaged children.

meeningless · 13/04/2025 08:34

meeningless · 13/04/2025 06:52

No, the IDSR only available to school leadership teams.

You can access all the underlying data, but unless you'd need to be a whizz at data analysis to re-create the IDSR yourself.

Show quote history

@Sageteatowels , having said that, you could put in an FOI request, e.g. there's an example of someone doing that here: https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/idsr_request_6

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