School admitting less than Published Admission Number (PAN) - should we be concerned?

[beckyrbb]

DD is starting big school in 2026.

We've just seen that our top choice has announced its intention to admit 1/3 less than its Published Admission Number. They've given no explanation as to why.

We've got no clue what this means but we feel slightly alarmed. Has anyone else been through this? Should we be concerned?

Number of pupils in schools are falling. Quite a few schools are doing this. Helps schools budget and plan their classes

This is going to become more common with falling birth rates. Some areas it is hitting secondary already (usually rural).

There's not much you can do really. Apply and hope.

Schools want full classes of 30 to make their budgets balance. So a school in an area with falling numbers is better off accepting 60 children than 65 for reception. Some numbers are awkward to deal with and might result in more mixed age classes than ideal.

But I'm not sure on the legal position of admitting under pan. What if a few more parents want places than the number of places the school wants to give out? Surely they'd win any appeals.

What is the pan?

Think they need to officially change their PAN

They will need to get approval to reduce their PAN and anyone can object to the School Adjudicator if they feel the admission policy is flawed. They probably have a forecast fall in pupil numbers and will probably be working with the local authority and nearby schools to manage the surplus. What is the PAN for 25/26 and for 26/27? Worth checking if they have also amended the oversubscription criteria and are operating mixed age classes.

They cannot admit less than PAN, but they can reduce PAN. Have they had a consultation on this? If not, they cannot reduce PAN. If the consultation is in progress, you can raise your objections with the school. If the consultation is over and they have decided to reduce PAN, you can lodge an objection with the Schools Adjudicator.

Sounds like they are consulting on reducing their pan, perhaps going from 3 form entry to 2? If they aren't full currently, and birth rates had fallen, they may need to

Schools will know how many applicants they had and if they were 1st, 2nd choice etc. from this they can work out rough numbers. If they are a three form entry school but are predicting around 55 pupils for example, they will probably take the decision to move to two form entry for this year. They will not be able to financially run 3 small classes.

Assume you mean primary school and it’s a school losing one class of 30 in a yearly intake?

Not a surprise - school numbers round here are plummeting as it’s an expensive area and people are having fewer children. It would be a concern for you if you are low down the admission criteria.

Birth rates are falling
primary schools will close in the next 10+ years, it’s inevitable.
reducing PAN now will help balance the books and keep it going for longer.

OP is talking about admissions for next year. The school cannot admit less than PAN this year. If PAN is 90 and they only have 65 applicants, they will have to admit all 65 regardless of the fact it will lead to small classes.

PAN is across all year group though, so if they have bulging yr9 for example they can adjust yr7 to counter it...you need the numbers in all year groups to fully account for this

No it's not; that's capacity, not PAN. Having more than the normal number in one year group, for whatever reason, does not give them the right to adjust a year 7 PAN downwards without consultation.

A school will have an overall capacity number, but any reductions to PAN must be consulted on - that is clear in the admissions code.

(Also, PAN only applies to the relevant age group. Authorities cannot refuse to admit into other years simply because it would exceed PAN; they can refuse on the grounds it would prejudice the education of others or efficient use of resources.)

Why do people on this thread state that schools cannot admit less than PAN? Schools can and always do admit less than PAN when there are less applicants than PAN. This happens in many rural areas every year where one birth year is bigger than the other.

the school are trying to reduce their PAN to recognise birth rates and so their don’t have uneconomic numbers of pupils vs teachers.

the point is that if they get more applications than places, they must allocate up to PAN.

In the circumstances you allude to, If they don't get enough applications, then of course they can't allocate all their spaces; but if they do, they must. They cannot decide arbitrarily after applications have closed that they don't want to offer as many places as PAN requires. PAN can only be changed in advance, by consultation.

Yes I know that. I was merely stating that saying schools cannot accept under PAN is inaccurate. Stating schools cannot accept under PAN if oversubscribed is however accurate.

Reading the OP it sounds like the school is consulting now to reduce the PAN for Sept 2026 entry. If there is a falling birth rate in the area then I expect the reduction will be allowed. The OP will have to hope that their circumstances put them in to a high enough category in the oversubscribed criteria.

Falling birth rate, or no new housing in the area (new housing attracts young families). Where I live, a certain primary school was in trouble a few years ago due to not enough applicants, but then a new estate was built nearby and they're ok again, for the next few years anyway.

There's a statutory timetable for admissions consultations, set out in the national Schools Admissions Code. A consultation for changes to a school's admissions arrangements for September 2026 would need to have completed by Jan 31st. The policy then needs to be formally determined by Feb 28th and published by 15th March. So, if @beckyrbb 's school followed this timetable correctly then she has missed the consultation. Perhaps they are now publishing the determined 2026 policy a few weeks early.

After it is published, there is a window of opportunity for objections to be sent to the school's adjudicator, until May 15th.

@beckyrbb the consultation should have been published on the school website. If you google, you might find an archived copy. It should explain the rationale.

Is it a local authority maintained school or an academy? If it is an LA school there might be info in your local authority's School Place Planning Strategy, which should be on their website (probably buried in committee agenda papers, but google will find it).

Not sure who you think said that. As far as I can see, I am the only person who said anything close to that, but that isn't what I said.

The point I was making is that, if a school has a PAN of 90 and there are only 65 applicants, they must admit all 65. They cannot decide they are only going to admit 60 of them.

What confused parents in my city was when due to needing extra places but not yet able to build a new school, 4 primary schools in turn took in an extra class in one year ie for one year the PAN was 90 rather than 60. The next year it was a neighbouring school. The problem that emerged in year 3 of the scheme was that there were a disproportionate number of siblings now seeking places at school A but the PAN was now back to 60 and so if you were not a sibling then your chance of a place that year was very remote. Everyone was very relieved when a new primary school finally opened.

OP - I suspect this is to do with the upcoming changes to the education bill. The power to change the PAN for schools will no longer held exclusively by the schools anymore. They want to be able to even out admissions across all schools in an LA. So if you have two schools in an LA - one excellent and the other not-so-good, the better one will have its PAN reduced so that applicants are forced to enrol and the second one. Interesting times ahead!!!

I live in the South East. There are numerous primaries and secondaries in my LA applying to reduce their PAN for the next academic year.
It’s due to the falling birth rate.