Concerned about potential new school’s GCSE results

[cst1983]

It looks like we are going to have to move during the next year due to DH’s job. For the area that we are looking at the catchment school results don’t look great to me but both DC do well at school and DH is of the opinion that bright children will do well anywhere, the results aren’t actually that bad, and I’m worrying about nothing.

The school’s 2024 GCSE results;

Progress 8 score: 0.73
Grade 5 or above in English & Maths: 25.2%
Grade 4 or above in English & Maths: 45.5%

Am I worrying unnecessarily?

The "bright child will do well anywhere" is a misnomer. They may do OK but it's unlikely they will achieve their full potential if they are in a school where teachers are spending majority of lessons managing behaviour rather than teaching.

Correction, the progress score was -0.73 (I missed off the minus) but I can’t edit my original post.

Also, looking further into it, for the results for “High” achievers at entry (23 out of 143), the grades at 4/5 are better but the P8 score is worse -

Progress 8 score: -1.31
Grade 5 or above in English & Maths: 52.2%
Grade 4 or above in English & Maths: 82.6%

That's a really bad P8.

Look at the ofsted report.

reports.ofsted.gov.uk

Look at what it says about behaviour. Your DH might be if the opinion bright children do well anywhere (he is wrong by the way) but if the report talks about violence, vaping and knives it's possible he might change his mind.

That would be a hard no from me.

I’d be looking at any other possible options. Ultimately I’d move house (in your situation not move to that catchment), and have done to ensure a decent school.

Some children can do well anywhere but I think they have to have the drive to do it on their own. If they are distracted by their friends and follow the peer group then they might not achieve their potential. I wouldn’t personally choose to send my children there.

It's clear from those stats that a bright child will not "do well anywhere" if previous high achievers (ie those who got top marks on SATs at the end of primary school are typically only 50:50 likely to get decent grades at maths & english then that is a terrible school. I'd be doing whatever it takes including squeezing the family into a 1-bed flat to avoid such a school.

It has a really recent Ofsted report - requires improvement for quality of education, good for the other categories. On the previous one, which was 4-5 years old, all categories were requires improvement. The school seems really pleased with their recent Ofsted, given by their fireworks posts on social media.

Sorry OP, but I'm another one who doesn't subscribe to the 'bright child will do well anywhere' adage, and I wouldn't be sending my own DD to that school. That Progress 8 is terrible, and the more able pupils there are clearly not reaching their full potential.

God that P8 for high prior attainment is grim. It makes it so clear that it's not just a school that's doing its best with a tough cohort, high achievers are actively going backwards compared to their peers at other schools and making even less progress. They're actively being dragged down to the school's (already poor) average.

Run as fast as you can. There must be other options.

I think it should be rather some bright children will do well anywhere. It depends what else is in their character other than academic aptitude. If they are likely to succumb to peer pressure in behaviour and attitude to learning then it might not be the best place for them. If they are self-motivated and stand alone then maybe it won't matter as much.

What are your other options?

I wouldn't touch that school with a bargepole. Still not in the 'Good' category after over five years? Also the teaching and learning section of the Ofsted report is the most difficult to fix.
Add to that the dire Progress 8 score, that school wouldn't be good enough in my eyes. Keep looking.

In that area there are few other options that I can see because all of the other close by schools look like they’re full for my DC’s years. So as the only one that has spaces we could get it anyway, even if we moved to another nearby catchment.

Honestly. I think if this job is non-negotiable you need to be looking at a much longer commute for your DH with a better choice of schools, or you stay where you are and DH works away if that's possible.

I can't think of too many situations for which I'd be willing to throw my children's education under a bus like this.

Your DH's contention that bright children will do well anywhere is directly disproven by this school's results, where the majority of bright children do not do well. They massively underperform expectations.

How long are the waiting lists for the surrounding schools for the year group that you need?

A job relocation is essential and due to the nature of the job locations are limited and DH cannot work away or have a long commute.

I am not sure about waiting list lengths for other schools. I will check them out properly but from the council website it looks like the numbers in DC’s years are quite a lot higher than what they say that their planned intake number is per year. It’s a rural area and so the secondaries are quite spread out.

Gosh! Those results are truly awful. I’d expect 80% of high achievers to be getting a 7+, not scrapping a pass with grade 4.

My DC school have low results because of the area, but it's an outstanding school and I've been extremely impressed study the way they handle things. The 'high flyers' are really pushed and encouraged (anyone predicted above 6) and they have so many extra lessons to prep for GCSEs. They get fantastic grades for the few who work hard. My eldest went to a school with much better overall results but he didn't do that well because he was average in that school (he'd have been a high flyer in this one). So, you do need to look carefully at the school as well as results.

Bright kids might do fine whatever. But doesn’t sound like there will be many kids they’d want to be friends with.

But you absolutely can look at the results the high prior achievers get. That should be the sign of the sort of school you're talking about, where they really push the high flyers despite overall results reflecting a more challenging intake.

My eldest's school has significant SEN provision so we get a much higher proportion of kids with EHCPs than usual which obviously has an impact on the overall results. Their Progress 8 is overall good but it's excellent for the high prior attainment kids - they really push them and support them.

The school OP is looking at is a school where the high prior achievement kids fare worse than the student body overall.

Honestly OP I don't think any job is worth this, particularly if your child is already part way through secondary. There must be other options for other jobs.

But quality of education is the main event, all else is gravy…
Don’t touch it with a bargepole.

This.

My DD1 was in a school like this for years 7 and 8. She entered as a high achiever, and after 2 years they predicted she’d get grade 5s and 6s in her GCSES. We took her out, and last year she got mainly grade 9s in her GCSEs. She’s much happier too as the behaviour at the first school was awful.

OK, so that Ofsted is positive - it looks like the school is moving in the right direction. Might be worth talking to the school about how they are addressing the gaps identified, and whether they think that things are improving lower down the school (remember the results you quoted are from a cohort who started over 5 years ago, and who had significant school disruption due to Covid).

How do you check the Progress 8 of high achievers? I can't see that breakdown anywhere. Is it up to the school to publish?

At the bottom of the page on the government data website there's an option for Results by Pupil Characteristics. Prior Attainment is an option there.