Yr10 GCSE- how much can you expect grades to improve?

[Bopdabop]

My son is currently part way into Y10 and we have yet to receive any predicted GCSE grades.

Apparently his school don't hand these out until around the end of March, at earliest. We aren't always even kept up to date on the assessments.

That's a whole other story and I have been in contact with his school today and had some of my queries forwarded to his subject teachers and hope I can gather a better idea of where he is at.

What are the chances of them being able get higher then their predicted grades at this point?

And dependent on the child, what differences with the score markings could there be? I.e. boost grade by 2 marks.

I just want to be able to support him to do well and I know he requires a gentle encouragement to do some revision.

It’s only half way into Y10 - of course there’s loads of room for improvement! Still lots to learn and big chunks of subject specifications to go over. So glad that DD’s school didn’t place importance over predicted grades so early on - it’s all a load of nonsense. The ones I’d give a pinch of salt are the Y11 mock exams, typically around Christmas. At that point DD’s school said it was rare (but not impossible with hard work/tutoring) to gain more than 2 grades.

Of course a child can always do better than they currently are if they start working more.

We are only just given predicted grades to our adults on a one year GCSE course. In school I would expect around Easter of year 10 or maybe summer. For predicted grades to make sense the students need to have done samples of most of the work they will be doing in the exam and need to practice this. If they work like we do, each half term ish is a different kind of work.

For example in English your son is most likely doing literature and Language. Whether he is a 3 student or a 9 student, he is quite likely to be stronger at some elements than others - if he got his predicted grade now, he would likely have done a couple of units at most, so he would get his grade based on say two elements maybe 1 type of literature and 1 subject in Language. If these were his weakest areas his predicted grade would might be significantly lower that he would get when did bits from all the subjects, the same as if this were his strongest area, he would typically get a predicted grade a coupe of grades higher than his real one.

Plus also there will be some elements of GCSE courses that are very new to students, again things they haven't learnt yet at all because that skill is not covered until later in the course. To predict what someone will score on a type of work they have never done before is very difficult and unlikely to be accurate. I would expect that they have had feedback on assignments already and can begin to focus on their weaker skills in those. That's really all that is relevant for now.

I don't remember getting proper predictive grades until year 11 after mocks. Grades in year 10 were more like targets.

There were a couple of subjects where son increased by 2 grades or more from mocks to actual grades. One went from a predicted grade of 4 to an 8 and from a 6 to a 9. It really depends on how much they worked for the mocks compared to the real thing.

'Predicted' grades are teacher judgements. They are quite capable of taking into consideration the likelihood of overall improvement, or issues when completing whole exams rather than specific questions.

It's obviously not an exact science, and forecasts aren't always 100% spot on, but it's a lot to expect a child to try to exceed them.

I've heard this explained as think about how your satnav tells you how long it takes to get somewhere. It knows the road conditions and delays and takes them into consideration. It's a reliable indication. You can drive a bit faster when the road is clear and shave a minute or so off (but it realises and updates). You don't really beat it.

Thank you for your input.

I do not want to be putting additional pressure onto him and I think I was more worried about not knowing his target grade to aim for- not his actual predicted grades.

So by the sounds of it, it's right that they will release target/prediction at end of March/early April.

I think there are just other schools around us who constantly update "their predicted grades" and I didn't understand why.

Y11 after November mocks is when you will have a realistic idea in my experience. And yes marks can definitely go up even at that point.

We brought in a tutor for one of the 'yikes' results at end of November and between her and the very good subject teacher DD went up 2 grades in the January retake and is now a definite on Higher papers and with expectations of going up another 1-2 grades before the real thing.

If sciences are the issue I would think about tutors sooner rather than later because they are so ridiculously content heavy even on Combined.

Do any of those schools do GCSEs over three years instead of two? Perhaps they are I. A better position to offer targets or predictions than those who have barely started their options.