What makes a secondary school go over PAN?

[Bluebellsanddaffodil]

i notice that a school we are interested in for secondary regularly goes over PAN, with a note on admissions data which states something along the lines of 'school intends to drop back to PAN'. What makes a school go over PAN?

I ask because we live a bit of a distance from the secondary school that our child's junior school feeds into. Some years he would get in on feeder criteria and there are children on the next criteria who do not so I'm just trying to understand the system.

People win places via appeal or the state of education says they have to take more

Usually appeals. The school should not normally go over PAN outside that but examples where they might is for looked after children

There has been a bulge year

DDs school was permitted to go a few over PAN so that all children in the priority admissions area got a place. (The furthest villages are 5+miles away and there is no logical alternative school)

There are very strict criteria for going over the PAN.

It is not something schools will do willingly as it can impact on the safety of the kids in terms of not enough classrooms/facilities etc to sage house everyone.

Reaaons; successful appeals boards although ime this is rare , usually it is because it is a high birth rate year and the number of applications outstrip the number of places in the area. So if there are 3 local schools and the combined places oa say 650 but there are 1000 kids who meet the first round of criteria the LEA will push the schools to increase the PAN before they place kids on schools that can be mile's away.

It isn't always the case. One of the families i know didn't get either of thw senior schools our primary school feeds too and ended up being placed in a school 10 miles away. Council had to provide transport buy it has been a nightmare for them and isolating for the child as they cannot easily get to school for events or the town to see friends ad there is no public transport direct from our town to theirs.

It will be as simple as this they'll probably be one of the schools that could manage to squeeze another class in the year but it won't be ideal.

Edited - meant to quote @crumblingschools

Many Secondary schools have had a bulge year in the last couple of years.

Many Primary schools having got rid of their bulge year are now facing even more reduced numbers due to falling birth rates.

This would be before appeal I think as the figures comes from the published admissions data which comes out shortly after offers day.

Other schools in the area have spaces, although fall under a different local authority.

Some schools will routinely offer over PAN on offer day in order to help the LA ensure that every child gets an offer on offer day. They know from experience that numbers usually fall back to around PAN by the start of term or a little later, as children go to private schools or take up (usually grammar) places in other LAs. The intention would usually be to drop to PAN before admitting another child from the waiting list.

It happens where I am a lot as a very high percentage (20%+) go private here but many apply for a state alternative as well, and from here the Sutton and kingston grammars are doable too.

In some cases in the last couple of years birth rates have meant numbers didn't drop back as quickly as usual.

So this is interesting as the school I am looking at regularly goes over PAN. In 2022 PAN was 180 and they offered 200, in 2023 it was the same figures, in 2024 it was a 200 PAN and 195 offered. It only goes back as far as 2022 but I know previous years were similar. So it doesn't seem to be a bulge year but a regular pattern.

The data is published slightly after offer day, so I presume it won't include appeals.

There are other schools in the area with spaces but not super close so I suppose it makes sense that that could be why.

There was one year where no one who wasn't at a feeder school got a place at this school. This would mostly have been people who had moved to the area or who had taken their children from private. They were all offered places at another a bus ride away, but quite a journey for 11 year olds.

I know that area well as I grew up in the area so it is interesting context for me.

I live elsewhere now. No grammar schools but a lot at private school (for now anyway). On current criteria for our desired secondary, we would be above anyone coming in from a private school due to feeder criteria featuring higher up than local area.

This is all of interest to me as we do live quite far from the school and I do think it's hit or miss as to whether we would get it for our children so being consistently over PAN interested me. I guess it's a case of they know patterns of what typically happens in their area so like you say, they know numbers will likely go back to PAN before September.

Our school goes over PAN sometimes because we'd rather take a few more kids from the WL and end up a little over, because we don't want to dip below PAN later in the year as pupils move out of area etc. But this would be a max of 3-4 pupils, but usually only 1-2.

Big (often round numbers) over PAN are usually agreed in advance by the LA and school. Our area has done this due to a high birthday year working through. We are now back to our normal PAN, but had an extra 30 last year into Y7. Agreed in advance and the updated PAN was in the admissions policy for that year.

You only need to worry about the PAN for your entry year and the admissions policy for the school. Why would your child not meet the feeder school criteria and be in the criteria band above? Fix that, and you increase your chances.

Thank you. It will be purely on distance that we may not get in. We will hopefully move prior to him going into year 6 and moving closer to the school is a priority, but whether or not that's possible I just don't know. I anticipate possibly needing to home educate another child if she doesn't cope well with the juniors and that would mean going to a one income household which would likely make moving impossible.

1/ Criteria is LAC/PLAC, 2/ children of staff, 3/ exceptional circumstances, 4/ siblings, 5/ feeder, 6/ local area.

Often the last criteria filled is feeder so it is possible we will be too far on that basis, probably being one of the further out families. Equally that isn't always the case!

Out of interest, what falls under 'exceptional circumstances'?

Out of interest, what falls under 'exceptional circumstances'?

You would need to read the criteria, as they differ from school to school, but it's usually something along the lines of an exceptional social or medical need that only this school can meet, and requires significant third party evidence.

Say the child is in a wheelchair and this is the only school in a 10 miles radius that is fully accessible. It's a very high threshold - many schools don't accept anyone on this criteria most years.

Popular Catholic Schools go over PAN to accept all Catholic candidates from the designated parishes. But if any child leaves the school they do not make this place available and slowly one by one drops to PAN.

Appeals or late EHCP applications

Multiple Birth families i.e. if the final child to be allocated a place is a twin then most schools would go over PAN to offer the other twin a place.
Bulge years - in a high birth rate year where all schools are oversubscribed, the LEA will increase the number of places in some schools to ensure that there are enough local school places available. The PAN will return to normal as the birth rate lowers.