End of Y10 exams: how good a predictor of GCSE results?

[CrikeyDozes]

My DD is in Y10 and just got her end of Y10 exam results. They were graded 1-9 as her GCSEs will be. They have really shocked me (they are better than I expected) and I wondered how likely it is she would secure the same grades at GCSE itself. She says the exams were taken from old GCSE papers. Does anyone know whether end of Y10 exams can be taken as an idea of likely GCSE grades?

There is also huge variability in what a mock is. DC did full GCSE science papers and teacher said expecting him to go up at least two grades (if he works hard) - some of syllabus not yet covered. Subject variability too. I feel like a language or maths is generally harder to go up in than humanities. Your DCs all smashed it. Congrats!!!

My DD’s year 10 grades weren’t a million miles away, she got 8’s and 9’s in all, apart from economics where she got a 6. Though it was later upgraded to a 7 as another teacher had to remark them due to a problem with the economics teacher (he was later sacked, or chose to leave, not sure but he departed quite quickly at Easter). She got all 9’s (12 in total) in her actual GCSE’s, so obviously exceeded grades at mocks. She did an incredible amount of work at home in the 2yrs of GCSE’s.

To add some of the mocks didn’t cover the whole syllabus so it’s difficult to replicate the real thing in year 10, but they are a good indicator of what can be achieved in year 11

I'm a maths teacher and it's common to see students make 2 grades progress from the end of year 10 to their GCSE result. Not all students take the year 10 exams very seriously, whereas they do tend to knuckle down in year 11. Also, there is more exam practice, intervention and revision sessions for year 11 to prepare them.

I do feel sorry for this new year 11 though, they didn't get to finish primary school and do their SATs, or even start secondary school in the normal way.

It sounds like it's quite a long time until parents' evening, could you contact the head of year for an update before then?