State comprehensive schools waiting list movement

[Hopeful88]

Hi all, has anyone seen much movement on school waiting lists?
I'm wondering what has happened with ours in Hertfordshire as only 2/3 places have been offered from each waiting list. The numbers have been confirmed by the schools so it's not a case of people being added ahead of us.
We are at number 5 on one list so I'm wondering how hopeful I should be. Thank you! 🙂

If you are no 5 then you may still be lucky. There is a lot of time before the next academic year and some people cancel their state school in September as they were not bothered to inform that they are going to private school, or are still hesitating

We are in the same position. We were 3rd on waiting list then 4th after 2nd allocation round. We found out at appeal with numbers provided that the school allocated 19 above PAN in anticipation some will reject offer which happened but which also meant waiting list didn't move at all.

It will depend massively on the individual school - things like mobility in the area, size of school and other factors like how many people tend to move into private education but might be holding a "just in case" state school place.

At my DC's school I would be prepared to put money on you getting a place from 5th on the waiting list, but we are in an area of high mobility (although that works both ways) and the school has a PAN of 480. Other schools undoubtedly vary!

Thank you everyone. The schools didn't offer above their PAN of 240. It just seems odd to have such little movement by mid May.

Is it an area where many people usually go to private school? The numbers doing so seem to be down a fair bit in many areas given the potential for VAT. That could mean less movement than usual, but areas vary.

I think you'll see more movement at/after half term. People with unconfirmed plans for next year are more likely to have firmed them up by then.

We have just had our appeal for our first choice school - a 240 pan state school - and the school have said that zero places have been rejected or offered since allocation day. I'm really shocked.

Do you know how that compares to the norm for the school?

No, it's very hard to get information from the school. The appeal had to adjourn to get the information for this year. It's a Faith school so they handle their own admissions.

With the election now and Labour's determination to add VAT immediately, a lot of people may be deciding against private school and taking up state school places instead. There doesn't seem to be any planning to help support local councils to manage an influx of in-year admissions this summer, or an appreciation that this policy is likely to increase the numbers of children in state schools immediately, meaning fewer children getting their first choice schools in Y7, reception, or 6th form. The number of state school classrooms and teachers won't increase by September, but it looks like student numbers will if the VAT changes go ahead immediately. Some people may be waiting for the election to decide what to do, but if current plans to introduce VAT immediately go ahead, I think a lot of people will opt for state schools, so waiting lists won't move.

Just over the border in South Cambridgeshire and a local (good) school has just offered a place to someone who was 20something on the waiting list on offer day. Once the transition days have happened then more people will give up spots on waiting list.

I think there’s been a double whammy of a peak birth year, plus people being put off private schools by VAT issues- I think anyone who has been swithering will commit to state now.

Not like I am a supporter of Toriesbut Labour will have to open more state schools to accomodate all those kids who until now would head for private. This Vat thing is not the best economy in my humble opinion.

They don’t need to open more schools. They might need a bulge year but most places will cope just fine with sheer numbers, they just won’t necessarily be where the chattering classes want them.

I'm Manchester and seem no difference in numbers going private. But there's a lot of movement on wait lists as population more transient in some areas.

Elaborate. How do you imagine that already heavily oversubscribed schools will absorb more pupils?
There is no way to do it. If less kids go to private there will be more demand for state schools.

An individual oversubscribed school is full. But in many areas, there is capacity in other local schools to take additional children (or how do you think children moving house ever get new school places)? There are falling numbers of secondary school age children (known based on historic birth rates) so less need for places.

>But in many areas, there is capacity in other local schools to take additional children (or how do you think children moving house ever get new school places)?

London here. If they move the kids are waiting up to 1-2 years for a school space at times. Or they travel very far if they want it right away

Also 10% increase in fees means that those not oversubscribed schools will not be enough to absorb the demand for state school places. Even if 1% of kids who would go to private decides on state school it will generate a problem in many areas

About that shrinking birthrate... I was hoping for it this year but because of growing number of immigrants ( Hong Kong, Ukraine) the catchments of local school shrank instead of grew

We’ve been 1st on the waiting list at 1st choice since March (when the waiting list was first put together). No offers at all (pan 200)

We’ve moved up around 3-4 spaces at our second choice but in >10th position so it just won’t happen.

@Deemumb best to report your post to MN and start your own thread.