Private schools to go bust in the coming recession

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The mother of all recessions is coming in my view. The world economy is pushing towards a large scale and deep debt crises. This follows the explosion of government deficits, borrowing, and leverage in recent decades and now that debt is growing due to high interests. Governments are in eye watering debt, individuals are in debt and so are private schools.
In the last 5 years private schools have been on spending sprees with new builds and new facilities mostly for marketing appeal rather than need. But it’s all been funded on debt. I work for a building service solution company and the number of private schools in the last 5 years have exploded on our books all funded by debt.

I know of one boarding school now in trouble and they have sold off their build and it will be converted to flats.

Be careful folks out there. Times are not as good as these schools portray.

I work at a very rural private school; it is the main employer in our fairly deprived market town.

I dread to think what the effect would be on local employment if it were to close. The teachers will probably be fine - it’s all the back office staff, all the cleaners, laundry people, dinner ladies, gardeners...all the local suppliers that rely on their contracts with the school.

The pool and theatre and sports facilities are also all used by the local schools, and they run popular holiday clubs for local children.

Everyone will be worse off if it were to close.

There is a big difference between "some private schools to go bust in the coming recession" and "all private schools to go bust in the coming recession"
There will be a recession at some point though timing is always uncertain. It's also likely that Labour will make the financial environment less friendly to private schools. Fees will go up, but not by 20%. Some consequences can be predicted:

1. The schools that go bust will largely be less viable preps and seniors near bottom of academic league tables. Those which are old or well-established enough to own their premises outright and/or have endowments squirreled away will survive. So also will all the top 100-200 senior schools, which are all oversubscribed.
2. The mix of pupils in surviving schools will change. A few single-sex schools will go co-ed to drum up numbers. Numbers of those trying to get into the most selective schools will fall, so overall they'll become less selective by academic ability, and more determined by who can pay. Numbers of foreign students will probably rise.
3. Schools will economize but pass on the rest of costs to parents. fees will continue to rise above inflation. Some parents will be unable to keep up with the cost and withdraw their kids. As the birth rate has been falling, and the withdrawals from the private sector will be staggered over a few years, the state system will probably be able to mop up the extra numbers without too much difficulty.
4. The proportion of kids in private education may fall slightly from around 7% currently to something more like 5-6%. That's still above what it was in the late 70's / early 80's (rates of private schooling around 7% didn't occur until the mass closure of grammar schools in the 70's caused an exodus from the state system).
5. More very rich and foreign students will be educated in the UK's academically most selective schools, whereas very bright UK-resident kids from middle-income or poor families, who might previously have attended the most academically selective schools on a bursary or scholarship, are more likely to end up in their local comprehensive.
6. numbers home/online schooling, which now significantly exceed boarding, will also probably continue to rise, also reducing pressure on the state system.

I’ve nothing against private schools, in fact there is a major private school in the town where I live and they invite local state school students in for academic conferences and social events. They employ a lot of people locally and they hire out facilities out of term time. They’re good neighbours. I also happen to know that many of their students are international students, so that’s a much needed financial import and brings money into the country.

I work as a teacher in the state sector and I’m happy there. We have a lot of happy, we’ll adjusted children who will go on to university and good careers or any other route that suits them. And some that are not happy for many reasons … poverty being a major factor.

My daughter attends state school and I like to think she’s happy and well adjusted. She’s highly dyspraxic so I have bought singing lessons for her speech, riding lessons for balance and muscle tone plus Brownies/Guides/Drama. It’s all made a massive difference to her and I’m so proud oh her achievements (now a prefect).

I do feel sorry for kids where there’s SEN and also poverty or other issues such as being young carers or addiction in the family and so on. We do our best for these but FSM doesn’t make up for enrichment they miss out on because their parents can’t afford it or just dont do it. Behaviour often deteriorates and this has a knock on effect on all others in the classroom - leading to lower achievement all round. It’s a viscious cycle.

I only wish I had a solution to poverty.

I think worrying about private schools going under is the least of our worries if we go into a global recession.
All schools will be hit by increasing costs, particularly staff salary increases to keep up with inflation. We will probably see measures such as reduced school days/hours and increases in class size to accommodate rising staff costs. Heating is a major problem so reducing the hours in winter to save fuel will be considered. It may have to be if selective power cuts are introduced.
I was at school during the last big recession in the 1970s when fuel was rationed, power cuts and three day weeks were introduced.

We’ve already reduced the school day in my school. We finish at 3pm with 30 mins for break and lunch. We have a 2 week half term this year - another week of heating and lighting saved.

2 week half terms have been pretty standard at some private schools. The autumn one is often school trip offered for first week then puoils go home. Terms are much shorter at boarding schools too.

State schools closing espec London due to falling numbers so balance might be redressed .
So long as whichever govt funds education it won't be an issue if some private schools fold. It will be about govt policy.
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/study-reveals-full-scale-of-london-pupil-exodus-amid-school-closures/

Days are longer though.

If I had NT kids they’d more than likely be at a state school.

They both gave it a really good run anyway.

Its easy to be noble about saying you’d stay state after a gigantic lottery win, when you’ve got kids that it sounds like would do well anywhere.

If on the other hand you’ve sat through literally years and years, over a decade of tears and sadness and endless painful rejections night after night, plus physical violence you’d almost certainly do what I’ve done. Any parent would. No parent wants to see their child suffer daily. Every day. For years and years and years.

I can’t tell you what it’s done to me as a person, those awful years at primary. What happened to my kids. My mental health and theirs, more than mine, has been affected forever. Bullying breaks a person and it’s a long road to recovery. and some don’t recover. Not really.

I don't know qhy you would be sure of this. You realise that they have been in power previously?

I have said the same. Getting glee from private schools folding or having to pay tax, might give your envy a thumbs up but the funding won't go into state schools, it will mean that class sizes in state schools will blow up.

exactly this. I think people's energies are better spent campaigning for more funding in state schools, better teacher salaries, LSA support and smaller classes than praying that the private schools fold so you can smile for 30 seconds that those richer than you can't go to that particular school- perhaps.

We were talking about this today. People are so focused on hoping that those richer will be inconvenienced, they are not educating themselves about how their kids in state schools will be in a recession. Now that is what the mass media want, the public to be ignorant of what is to come so the 'elite' and 'powers' can look after themselves. The state schools will be a total mess in a recession. Infact they already are- stop snoozing and wishing bad on those you envy and pay attention to what will happen in the state govt schools. Some schools already teaching core subjects in classes of 120- you think that is ok just as long as private schools are getting charged more?

I think some smaller schools have been vulnerable for years.

I can think of three independent schools in the area that have closed in the last 15 years or so.

In the same period three others have changed the age range or sex of the children they take, presumably in order to attract more pupils.

I know plenty of people who experienced vile bullying in private schools, then switched to state and weren't bullied.

I'm glad your DC has a better experience in the private sector but I've heard just as many examples in the opposite direction.

Of course they would but I was responding to a post that said private school parents don't have any influence, I reckon Sunak and Prince William do have influence. So not all parents will but some probably do.

Yes just imagine people with influence making sure schools weren't going to fall down on top of the children, that there were enough resources that there was enough in the budget to make sure there were enough staff to give every child enough attention. It would be hell wouldn't it.

The biggest crisis would be if the privately educated children end up in the state system which is already bursting at the seems! The infrastructure is not in place, and then there’s the money it would cost to fund places for all those children !

No in our area people live in cheaper areas to afford private fees. If the schools fold they'll get their local area school. Or if they can't afford it anymore and have to use state.
I have zero tolerance for private school privilege and advantage.
I resent the two tier system

Not all state schools are full. Our city has a huge % schools with spaces post Brexit.

I know through a contact that several LEAs is discussing the legality of permanent expulsions, making existing students living out of catchment loose their places to reapply mid-year, and narrowing catchments so local schools don’t lose out on high performing private students if and when the vat rises come up.

All the private schools near us perform far worse academically than the local state school.

And our LEAs discussions are around declining birth rates.

Opposite here

Just goes to show how hard it is to generalise doesn't it