Private schools to go bust in the coming recession

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The mother of all recessions is coming in my view. The world economy is pushing towards a large scale and deep debt crises. This follows the explosion of government deficits, borrowing, and leverage in recent decades and now that debt is growing due to high interests. Governments are in eye watering debt, individuals are in debt and so are private schools.
In the last 5 years private schools have been on spending sprees with new builds and new facilities mostly for marketing appeal rather than need. But it’s all been funded on debt. I work for a building service solution company and the number of private schools in the last 5 years have exploded on our books all funded by debt.

I know of one boarding school now in trouble and they have sold off their build and it will be converted to flats.

Be careful folks out there. Times are not as good as these schools portray.

I think you have made the case that the FSM premium is insufficient to cover the structural differences, not that money doesn't matter

Schools that cannot service their debts will close. SEN or not. Most vulnerable are very small schools that typically don’t attract the properly rich. They attract many who won’t be able to pay 20% vat. Not that vat has to be 20%. Could be 5%. It’s virtue signalling and pandering to the left. It’s only going to move Dc on the fringes. Others will afford it and bursaries will still exist. Little “haven” schools will be vulnerable. Many bigger name schools have to invest or they don’t compete.

Free schools are a waste of state money if they are not needed. Many were also haven schools. Better to plan where schools should be for growing populations.

There isn’t enough money in this country for everything we want. We have to make compromises. We need more tax take but more people paying taxes. Not taxing those that pay even more. Most rich countries have lots paying tax. Those where fewer pay tax have vastly inferior services. We are heading that way. All governments need more people and companies paying tax.

If Sunak's kids had to go to the local comp I think he might have a bit of influence. If Prince George had to go Prince William might have a bit of influence. Depends how high it goes.

Good.

If there were no private schools then there would be more pressure on the government to improve funding for all schools. Generally well-off people are good at getting what they want and making lots of noise about it. There would be more diversity in schools also, in terms of rich mixing with poor.

Also, agree about the low birth rate. I know a few people who work at Multi Academy Trusts and they said they are starting to notice this and struggling to fill up all spaces. I had no idea as this was news to me, but I got it straight from the horses mouth as it were.

Money isn't the answer to state schools by the way. Some of the best performing get the lowest funding as there percentage of fsm children is low. More engagment with parents is what is needed

This. Whilst some extra funding wouldn’t go amiss, it really isn’t going to solve all the problems. Attitude and expectation needs to change. I don’t know the answer though.

Uh, if the mother of all recessions is coming, maybe we should worry about people currently living on or below the breadline, not little Annabel and her access to ponies?

This is such an own goal. Education is one thing that we export well and attracts o/s students and feeds into university level.

agreed, also think the same for private golf clubs... or at least they shoule be converted into public parks. In my area, we are land poor and there's a huge golf club taking up miles of space.

I've just left working in this sector. I was in a small name school and recruitment was tough and competitive. I see the decline of private schools as something that is coming regardless of government policy. Unless they have a niche (eg my school was known for supporting the neuro diverse) I can't see them surviving long term especially as they are statistically confirmed to entrench inequality.

enrichment activities at many of the local state schools to me are free to all, and there is funding for those who can't afford to go on trips etc. At one school I know of, they raised funds for sleeping bags, tents etc so everyone who wants to can do DofE.

Most politicians aren’t super rich. They earn about the same as head teachers or junior city lawyers.

@TheaBrandt they usually have 1-2 outside jobs so are on double / triple that

You don’t think that Sunak or Prince William might choose a foreign boarding school over the local failing comp? You are never going to get rid of inequality entirely.

Wealthier private school parents have far more options. Private schools are already increasingly sending students to overseas rather than UK universities. That will trickle down to secondary education. The parents who will struggle and be affected when private schools close are those who stretch themselves to afford the fees, often with children who have additional needs and who have been failed by the state system.

Getting rid of, or reducing, the number of private schools won’t get rid of privilege and advantage. It’ll make the gap even wider.

What is a council estate school?

In an ideal world, all SEN children would have the right to a decent eductation, not just the SEN children of very rich people.

It depends. Two private schools have recently relocated onto the site of an old private school. It’s fairly niche (religious) and I’ve got 2 friends who send their DC there. It’s also in a safer part of the area compared to where it was located before. So can’t see these closing down soon.

Also tbh I'd be pissed off if my kids' state school basically got commandeered by fancy pants parents who thought they knew better than everyone

The largest and wealthiest private schools will survive - as pp has said, Eton Harrow etc. still have hundreds applying for each place available, they are secure. Schools not so high up the rankings will not. These schools have to build/develop to keep up and attract pupils - parents spending lots of money want state of the art sports centres, swimming pools, arts and/or dance provision. Schools will lose parents if they don't provide this but often they don't have the money and get into debt by trying to provide it.

Some of the major schools (especially girls' schools) are already struggling at the moment. They have falling numbers of pupils from UK and Europe but are now crammed with students from China, Thailand and other parts of Asia, some from Russia and so forth. These are the only parents with money and want their children to have an "English" education. I know a top UK girls' school which is now 90% Asian pupils. They are still struggling for money though and are needing to cut back, they need to save 1 million £ this year on their budget.

Savings are being made on staff, some of these schools have re-hashed the staffing policies and staff teams (especially those working in the boarding houses rather than teaching staff) have taken pay cuts and hours cuts.

At what point do you think that those wealthier individuals (who happen to contribute a lot financially to the UK tax system) might decide that the UK doesn’t have a lot to offer them any more?

I think Finland is the educational equivalent of Godwin's law... but they have no private schools and their educational system is ranked amongst the best in the world. Top for social mobility.

The people I know who privately educate their kids are not Sunak rich and would not send their kids abroad for education.

Were you offering to hear children read? To mark the homework?

You think people would move abroad in droves because they don't have access to private golf clubs?

OK.

Teentaxidriver · Today 08:10

Sunnyseed - “there needs to be an overhaul of taxation…. “ Meaning what?

As a family we already pay enormous amounts of tax. It is comments like this that really make me wonder how much additional capacity people think higher rate tax payers have to contribute to the public purse. Or do you think that because we might stop paying private school fees, Starmer can just help himself to that money??
Well said @Teentaxidriver
All that will happen is that we will leave the country, the amount the top 1% pay in tax is indeed unfair- we pay too much!

well it's both... funding is obviously needed as well as parental engagement... which will happen if all parents rich/poor send their kids to the same school.