Private schools to go bust in the coming recession

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The mother of all recessions is coming in my view. The world economy is pushing towards a large scale and deep debt crises. This follows the explosion of government deficits, borrowing, and leverage in recent decades and now that debt is growing due to high interests. Governments are in eye watering debt, individuals are in debt and so are private schools.
In the last 5 years private schools have been on spending sprees with new builds and new facilities mostly for marketing appeal rather than need. But it’s all been funded on debt. I work for a building service solution company and the number of private schools in the last 5 years have exploded on our books all funded by debt.

I know of one boarding school now in trouble and they have sold off their build and it will be converted to flats.

Be careful folks out there. Times are not as good as these schools portray.

I live in a grammar school county but with some very good comprehensives too. What I have noticed recently is at least two examples of the junior schools of independent secondary schools, which were previously marketed as feeders to secondary are now marketing themselves as preps specialising in getting grammar school places. It's as though they can see parents can't afford to go private all through so they want to cash in on trying to get grammar places instead. Where this leaves the Secondary school is not very clear, ie do they accept the kids who fail to get grammar places or do they just cast them out?

@Occasional2023 I think dc will stay on into the senior school if parents can afford it. The senior school that took most 11 plus “failures” near me opened a prep. They keep most from their prep but dc can take the 11 plus. However it’s not an 11plus crammer.

Historically many dc ended up with no place in the senior school if they didn’t opt for the prep first. It just filled up with its own dc who were not always the brightest (but good enough) but parents feared they would not get in at 11 so paid for the prep first. Others coming in at 11 plus had to be nearly at the 11 plus mark. Or above! Therefore it became pretty selective. It wasn’t before it had its prep.

If parents cannot afford private, or don’t get to the grammar, around here, it’s the local secondary. Some are fairly decent though. I’ve no doubt they aren’t what parents wanted but if you don’t have the money or the brains, you are the same as the majority!

I believe that the educational landscape will change massively in England at least if not UK as whole over the next few years, and personally I think it’s best to assess the school choices just a year in advance. In our area, in addition to schools going bust, state schools that used to be good are now classed as requiring improvement, while the previously bad schools are now good or outstanding. It has a lot to do with demographic change and young families now staying more in cities with tech and professional jobs rather than moving to suburbia, where school-age population is declining.

It has a lot to do with demographic change and young families now staying more in cities with tech and professional jobs rather than moving to suburbia, where school-age population is declining

l see no evidence of this at all in my city. All the schools found me with the exception of one have been reinspected in the last few years and all have retained their ofsted status. Families with children want to live round good schools. It’s only students and young adults in our city centre.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow It’s very much more complicated than that. It’s partly to do with who values education and the support parents given to dc and their schools. It’s well documented that many people new to this country value education even though they might live in city centres or in less valuable areas. This is why London has seen improving schools.

Much depends on the quality of the leadership in the school too. Are they great leaders? Are they running the best school they can? It’s not necessary to have the highest achieving dc, but good schools will educate most children very well.

No it isn’t. I was a teacher in an outstanding school for 25 years.

There are 3 excellent secondaries near me. It’s a desirable area. This is why the schools are so good. People live there because they want their kids to go to good schools.

Its never changed in the 28 years l’ve lived here. And I grew up in this area. It never changed in the 19 years l lived here pre university either.

I think that mergers of smaller or less well regarded independent schools will continue. Economies of scale will play a part. Sometimes it will be a genuine merger but in other cases it will be asset striping of one of the schools probably for property or land to be sold off. I think that parents will need to be wary and try to see how financially viable an institution is before they commit to pay their money to send a child there.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow So you have just been in one area but that is the replicated all over the country? It’s clearly not the case in London. I feel leafy lane areas can get better schools because of my second sentence earlier. However bright dc and supportive parents are not all in expensive areas. In many cities there are good schools serving less desirable areas. Where schools are poor, it’s often because slt are not good enough and the local population doesn’t care enough. There is competition for the best staff, and these schools miss out. Change slt, ethos and lots of other things that need attention, and schools can change.

Where I live, all the grammars, bar one, are outstanding. All the secondary moderns, bar one, are not. Same areas served. Clearly exam results are different but one secondary is outstanding. Why not the others in very well off areas?

Situation may be different in counties without grammars and in university cities the previously poorer areas have been / are being gentrified by young academics and high tech workers. In these areas state schools are improving and surpassing the traditional schools in ethos, diversity, and performance.

What is a traditional school? Schools are schools.

In my view a traditional school is a school holding onto anachronistic values - in Britain I’ve noticed this can include both state and private schools. I suppose every parent choses a school based on its ethos and values. What I mean by non-traditional is a school whose approach and curriculum is suited for the world of today and tomorrow without pretending the world at large has not changed since Nasser nationalised the Suez Canal.

The curriculum framework is a government al decision for state schools. How it is delivered is a matter for schools. Independent schools don’t have to follow the national curriculum but as their pupils take state exams, very many do. I think there is a role for British values. Indeed most states hold on to their values. However if we want greater understanding of other cultures (Brexit suggests we don’t) we need better MFL teaching as a start. We need more enthusiasm about other cultures. We cannot change history but we can learn from it. I agree we aren’t great at that.

Also vast numbers of parents don’t have a choice of schools. You can express a preference. You don’t get to choose. Most schools aren’t vastly different in ethos unless you want a Bootcamp strict school. Even then, you might not get into
it if you live too far away.

The curriculum is not dictated by government. Academies and free schools have the liberty to design their own curriculum and set their term dates. All schools in England will become academies. At the same time all schools must comply with statutory attainment framework, and now even private schools are required to submit the results to government, eg results of end of KS2 tests.

I don’t say it was dictated by the government. I said it was a framework.

even private schools are required to submit the results to government, eg results of end of KS2 tests

I'm fairly sure private primary schools don't have to do SATs. And private secondaries often do IGCSEs which, whether submitted or not, don't count in the DfE tables. So you see schools with some of the highest results in the country which apparently had nobody passing either English or Maths at GCSE and similar obviously nonsensical data.

As for traditional and non-traditional curricula, I think you see differences in schools regardless of private status. There is a lot of variation between individual schools' approaches across both sectors.

I don’t think a lot of private schools do sats. Very much depends on which schools they feed but it’s not relevant at many private schools .

Here we go

https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/2024-05-26/private-school-forced-to-close-blames-falling-numbers-and-rising-fees

That’s nothing to do with a Labour government though. That school has failed for other reasons like CoL crisis. Maybe the quality of education it offers isn’t very good. Who knows ? I’m more concerned about state schools struggling tbh. Like having to make TAs redundant and cancel enrichment projects because of cuts to funding.

Just as well we only have another 6 weeks or so before Labour shakes its magic money tree, and instantly solves the state school funding crisis once and for all.

It's fine. The Government of whatever colour will just buy up the land and building of all the closing private schools and hand them over to the Catholic Church who are waiting in the wings to open many new schools as soon as they get their way on the back of this consultation (which Labour haven't opposed): https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/faith-school-designation-reforms

The only private school in my town closed and the council bought it and it reopened as a new primary school. Lots of building going on so local schools were overcrowded.

Just saw the school is in Alton in Hampshire. There are a lot of private school around that area. Found the Hampshire 2028 school places plan. There might be a shortage of place in other areas in the country, but not Hampshire. It says Alton is forecasted to haev a 10.8% surplus for Year R and 19% for Year 7 in 2028. I'm sure it can handle a rise of 10% from private schools.

@ReadyForPumpkins - what about Year 7 2024, 2025, 2026 etc - bulge classes? Will it cost a lot to put on these bulges on a temporary basis? These are the years people are worried about and neither state nor private schools can plan ahead due to this ridiculous policy with no flesh in it as yet whatsoever! They are playing with kids lives right after a pandemic and into a child mental health crisis.

There is a massive contradiction here because there may be an immediate uptick required of places and then a decline.

@Araminta1003 South Hampshire here, so not Alton. The numbers you see in the screenshot includes 2023. Locally, 2022 and 2023 Year 7s are the largest year groups. Did you see they have 547 on roll for Year 7 in Alton South for a PAN of 516, and 392/400 for Alton North? Locally in South Hampshire, everyone still got into their local catchment school and I'm in the catchment of one of the very desirable ones. They increased the numbers admitted to accomodate.

From the year 2024 admission data from Year 7. Google says Amery Hill and Eggar are the Alton state secondary. Amery refused 29 and Eggar 0. I don't know the breakdown as it's not on the council website.

There are a lot more primary schools but if you look at admission 2024 data, there are a lot of people getting in out of catchment https://documents.hants.gov.uk/education/Year-R-Offer-Day-Data-2024.pdf