I would echo what a couple of others have said: viability of a small private school, especially if labour get in and enforce their private school tax (apologies, I am not too sure what they are calling it but they are going to hike fees up) and concerns over boarding at such a young age.
Personally I wouldn’t pay for private unless it was all-singing all-dancing amazing results, oxbridge offerer, multiple languages, sports and music. If it’s only offering what, or in your case less, than a local or other school can offer, I wouldn’t touch it.
Boarding can work, but your child needs to WANT to board. It won’t work otherwise. I feel like boarding is someone that is more suited to 6th formers, or the earliest 14 year olds.
You also mention that you could apply for a day place at the state boarding school - why don’t you do that? You might not get a place, but it is worth a try? Can you apply for a boarding place later on, in say Y10, if you don’t get a day place and have to go local? Alternatively mix and match? Independent for Y7-Y9 then the state boarding for Y10+ to get the GCSE variety you are clearly after?
Can you pick the best of the local schools? A negative P8 and low results isn’t the end of the world. That is how ALL children in that year achieved. It is not a guarantee of the results your child will achieve. Dig deeper. How did the high, middle, low achievers do?
I’ve said this a few days ago on another post, but I feel it is also relevant to you - local school with targeted private tuition. It sounds as if you can afford tuition if/when it will be needed so perhaps consider? You will be saving, what? 2 hours a day if you don’t choose the private school and don’t send your child on a long journey. That’s 2 hours that could be used for targeted private tuition.
Apologies, a almost direct copy and paste from the other day, with a few little tweaks for you, but:
Having DC who are tired and exhausted because of travelling to a better school can be counter productive to the overall aim. I would also say, in regards to the private school, this would be the case for long school days. I sent DC1 and DC2 to the better school. I wish I had chosen the closer secondary school and put the £400 a term per child we spent on bus fees into tuition at GCSE level. (Imagine a tuition fund of £6k per child - we wasted that on transport, I look back and think - why?!) Imagine what you could do in regards to targeted tuition if you saved only half of the private school or boarding fees.
I thought the further way school with better results would be worth it. In reality we spent a lot of money on transport, DC1 and DC2 were travelling for 2 hours a day, they were exhausted and didn’t do as well as they could have done. I think they did worse than if they had gone to the less well performing local school 30 minutes walk away. They would have been better more local, to be able to do after school activities, to have local friends and for us to put the money into tuition if they needed it.
In contrast DS3 (big age gap - happy little accident) has gone to local school, it’s still performing worse than the one the other 2 went to but DC3 is happier, not exhausted and doing better. DC3 school has poor results like your schools (25% 5+ English and maths, -0.7 progress). And yes, we are saving the £400 a term we would have spent on transport in case it is needed at GCSE level.
Its horses for courses and you need to do the best for your family circumstances and your DD, but I just wanted to highlight this for you so you can consider whether this is a route you want to go down.