Choosing a secondary - statistics?

[BluTy]

DS is year 6; I've narrowed it down to two schools both of which we are in catchment for and would've gotten into in previous years. Have been to open evenings and open mornings and scrutinised the websites. Basically we are in a coin flip situation for which to list first which is fine but i thought I'd take a quick glance at last years result statistics. One has MUCH better results. Progress 8 0.3 vs -0.3 for the other school; English and Maths at 5+ 68% vs 38% etc - is there anything I should know about these sort of statistics? Or can I just assume that school A is 'better' than school B? If I'm being 100% honest I was leaning more towards school B before I looked these up, based only on 'feelings' and I'm a bit shocked!!

38 perc sounds like a disaster. Has it been like that for several years? Maybe there is a Covid impact

I am deciding between 72 perc and 86 perc for 5+... And other aspects

School B might be impacted by other factors, e.g., a large portion of kids where English is not their first language, or it may give better SEN support so more kids with learning disabilities choose to go there. Perhaps do some asking around? There are more metrics to define a successful school, it just depends on what your child needs.

As a PP said, school B might be affected by factors such as having a high SEND cohort or high percentage of EAL. A school in my area as -0.59 as their P8 score yet is considered a "Good" school by Ofsted because it's got really good SEND/EAL provision therefore they get a lot of those types of students rather than "average" students.

Is there a special needs unit at the lower attaining school? Sometimes called a resource base or centre?

There can be valid reasons for less attaintment and less progress but 38% is pretty low compared to national average so Id be interested in why, even if it mean my child still went there because the why was ok.

Have you looked at the figures for pupil premium and AEN? Both of these can impact significantly on basic stats.

Hmm, so there is differences between the numbers of EAL and disadvantaged pupils - with the higher attaining school having less of each - although neither school have a huge number of either.

School B has 20% 'disadvantaged' - is this high? They only have about 7% EAL. I will check SEN next.

But... do these 'mitigating circumstances' change anything materially for my son who isn't disadvantaged, English is his first language and he has no (known) SEN? He is high achieving atm.

It doesn't. Given what you have shared here so far, school A is a better option.

You need to compare results to cohort (look at low/medium/high achievers in the intake). A school with higher results might still be "worse" than a school with less good results.

It will also help you work out a "what does this mean for my child?" - if he's high achieving then look at how high achievers do. If they only do "averagely well" - that's not great.

What are the 4+ results?

@BluTy How do the high achievers do?

High achievers

School A: progress 8 is 0.23 attainment 8 is 69.7. 5+ is 89%

School B: progress 8 is -0.07 attainment 8 is 65.6. 5+ is 93%.

So I think that means the progress isn't as good but overall very similar actual results for high achievers??

Can I/how can I find out how many kids with SEN (or kids with EHCPs?) are at the school? Just incase it sheds some light on the lower attainment really?

You can get some demographic information on GIAS (get information about schools)

If it's really a coin flip, which has the extra curriculars that appeal most? Sport/Music/etc - Are there teams/groups that are active and good to join? Interesting GCSE options? Which is easier to get to? Are behaviour policies spectacularly different?

Also, last year's progress data is set to be published on the 19th.

With EHCP, because SEN monitoring or registrar can be as minor as e.g.dyslexia but high attainer or ASD high attainer. For EHCP they usually have to be 2 years behind to get it

You can see the % of pupils on SEN Support and with EHCPs here. Search the school then click on absence and pupil population. Pupils do not need to be 2+ years behind to get an EHCP.

Thanks for that. I was on that website but missed the SEN info.

For actual EHCPs school A has 4% and school B only 1.8% so that doesn't explain the discrepancy. For 'pupils with a Sen plan' they are both about 15%.

I find it so surprising how different they are when by local reputation and when I visited they seem so similar. More stats due out next week so that'll be interesting.

I’d go with school A. That progress 8 means that compared to similar peers countrywide the kids at B do less well. They underachieve. And it’s worse for the higher achievers.

No, this means that school A create higher than average progress in their students and their former higher attainers achieve more of the higher grades (7s, 8s, 9s) than school B. School B has lower than average progress but get more former higher attaining pupils "over the line" at grade 5 than school A.

Is that what it means @Iamnotthe1? Despite having an A at A-level maths myself statistics still aren't my strong point 😅

With the latest stats due out next week does anyone know: is it common for results to change a lot - like big differences up and down each year - or do they tend to change more slowly so you can see a trend?

Bear in mind that the confidence intervals for P8 might overlap, depending on the size of the cohort. If it’s a big school the P8 is likely to be more accurate. If school A continues to be better when the new results are released I would favour it, unless there is something else about school B you really like. I find talking to current parents really helpful. Have you done that?

IME results don’t change dramatically but covid has made things difficult

Schools with high EAL tend to have good progress, because as their english improves, their grades tend to improve too. If they're recent arrivals, they won't impact progress scores anyway.

Disadvantage can have an impact.

The thing with stats is that your child is an individual and can buck the trend HOWEVER these stats do suggest one school has a much higher achieving student population than the other. For me, if your child is average/above average, I'd probably want them with a peer group who are aiming for 5+, making good progress and have higher aspirations.

This years results are arguably the most "true" results since 2019, so you might see a big change. However, if this year's results are similar, I would probably lean strongly towards school A.