How much can reputation and catchment change in a year or two?

[Sandypoints]

I have a DD about to start Y5 and I’m not very happy with our secondary options. Schools A and B are the closest, about equidistant with Ofsted Goods, but low attainment compared to other local schools (and most students only do 8 GCSEs, which I understand to be a bad sign?) and bad reputations for being rough and having lots of bullying.

Next closest, School C, Requires Improvement with similar reputation to A and B.

Fourth closest, School D, has a fab reputation, but there’s no way we live close enough for DD to get in.

So, how much can change in the next two years? Is that enough time for one of the closer schools to really improve? Also, we moved primary schools this year and found lots of spaces for DD but not her younger sibling, so wondering if this Y5 is somehow a smaller crop and she has a chance of making it to school D?

Moving closer to School D is unlikely to be feasible and I definitely wouldn’t want to downgrade in housing and still end up not getting in if the catchment keeps getting smaller.

Obviously I’ll check Schools A, B, and C out and maybe they are better than they seem, but that’s not my question here. Just curious to know how quickly tides can turn on a school and is it that they turn bad quickly, but improve only slowly.

I think there can be quite a lag in reputations both when they improve and when they are getting worse. There is round us anyway.

I wouldn’t say any great change is likely in two years tbh.

Eight GCSEs, while I agree not ideal, is more common now as there is so much content to cover and learn. It still allows a student a decent range of subjects.

You do know that you can put school D at the top of your preference list and it will make no difference to your chances of getting A or B (assuming you put them down too obvs). How many preference slots do you get?

Yh agree with @TeenDivided reputations are fairly meaningless. But progress 8 and attainment 8 are factual.

We get 6 choices. I’ll definitely put D as top choice, but I suspect A is the one DD will get.

Good to know the 8 GCSE thing isn’t as bad as I thought!

I’m not from here so I don’t really know enough about Attainment 8 and Progress 8 scores. School A’s Attainment 8 is second lowest for our borough and the neighbouring one. B and C are a bit better, but still bottom half and well below School D. Progress 8 is .15, which is one of the worst as well. So these scores are “bad” for our area but not sure how they are objectively.

Schools can radically change within a couple of years - but generally only with a change of head teacher or deputy

Reputations are often 10 years' out of date. With school budgets being cut all schools are likely to change over the next few years. Schools with bigger budgets may be able to weather changes better.

By catchment, it sounds like you mean the last distance from which you're likely to get a place, rather than fixed catchment areas (if it were fixed catchment areas, these would be formally consulted on).?
Here, local knowledge will help you - are there new areas of housing being built? Is the population aging (the school DD goes to you had to live in catchment AND go to a feeder school to get a place in as little as 4 or 5 years' ago, now you can live several miles away) which will result in fewer children of the right age applying? Is the school sufficiently unpopular/popular that people are voting with their feet?

If .15 is the lowest progress 8, then there aren't really any alarm bells for any of the school.

you need to view attainment 8 in line with intake (you can break down the results on the government site). A school with a stronger intake is likely to get better GCSE results overall. Look at how "children like yours" tend to do.

My daughter starts secondary school in September. When I filled the forms in for the school application, we could choose any school in our town, surrounding town and even the next county (we live just on the cusp)

Tbh most state secondary schools have kids with poor behaviour and bullying. All you can do is visit them nearer the time and pick the one you either think will suit her best or more likely the one which is closest and all her friends are attending.

And Progress 8 score above zero means the children have made progress - so if 0.15 is the lowest then I agree, no alarm bells.

Positive progress 8 is a decent school.
The biggest changes happen following an inadequate OFSTED rating - but it takes a few years for changes to filter through to GCSE results.

If they've got positive Progress 8 scores and low Attainment 8 scores, then that suggests that the intake is weak. You can view the results broken down by low/middle/high achievement at KS2, which will enable you to see how they are doing with their abler pupils (if that's the category your DD falls into).

Yes, you are correct — that’s what I meant by catchment! The 2022-2023 “catchment” was 1 mile and we leave just under 2 miles away. Unfortunately I think I live far enough away from the school that I really don’t know about any of the factors you mention! I’m waiting to see the 2024-2024 catchment distance come out and then I’ll know if it is expanding or contracting, but I suspect contracting since the school is getting more popular.

Unfortunately I think School A is the only one my DD would get on offer day. We’re beyond the catchment for all of the other schools, but I think B or C would maybe be doable from waitlist.

Yes, I’m sure you’re right! Most of the students from DD’s new school go to Schools B and C, so if we went with one of those she’d hopefully have some friends at one of those. Or if she hates everyone at the new school we’ll just stick with A 😭

Could you look for school E? A school which is undersubscribed but that you prefer to A, B and C? It sounds like you're in London, look at transport routes. Also ask on any school WhatsApp groups for alternatives to A, B, C and D. Maybe the odd child has go elsewhere in previous years?

I'd agree that reputations take a long time to change because they tend to be rooted in the results. And obviously they are achieved by Y11s who have been in the school for 5 years.

I will do some looking! I get the impression every good school in London is oversubscribed, but I guess you never know.

I do have a School E in that there is a semi-selective secondary school that I will probably have my DD test for. If she gets that, then we don’t have to worry about anything else, but the odds are slim.

@Sandypoints remember that a school being oversubscribed does not mean you will not be offered a place.

A very popular school local-ish to me has a catchment which we are not in - but local DC still go there. Maybe they were in a low birth year or got a place for some other reason. If you put it down then there is a chance for sure.

@lanthanum My local grammars are all above 0.58 progress 8. It’s absolutely not the case that the brightest don’t make progress. 0.15 is ok but others are better it appears.

@Sandypoints where are you roughly? People in here can be really knowledgeable and might be able to help by finding schools F, G and H!

I didn't say that bright kids don't make progress or that schools with strong intakes can't have high progress scores.

I said that the fact that the combination of low attainment and marginally above-average progress means that the low attainment is because the intake was weak. If it was low attainment and below-average progress, there would be more to worry about, because that suggests kids are falling behind where you'd expect them to be.

In a grammar school, you'd expect to see high attainment scores, and if they're a good school, high progress as well.

No point in being vague I suppose! We’re in NW6. These are the schools.

School A: Hampstead School
School B: Harris Academy
School C: UCL Academy
School D: Parliament Hill
School E: Grey Coat Hospital (language place)

I don’t think DD has any chance of getting into Camden School for Girls, Marylebone Girls, King Solomon, etc. Any other suggestions?

@Sandypoints also drill down into the schools Prior Attainment, what is their cohort coming in? There will be high achievers, middle and low. It should break down the progress 8 into who benefited and by how much. This is all available online. We chose a school that also pushed the high achievers as well as the low, the other school only seemed to focus on the low achievers which is absolutely right but not so great for those on 6s who wanted 7s or 8s.

If you asked me about my sons' secondary I could not be more enthusiastic about how amazing it was however, if you ask some other parents they would say it was ridiculously strict over uniform and detentions for breathing in class.

Also great that you have said which schools they are which helps people with local knowledge.

Many schools have their worst P8 in the lower achievers category. For all sorts of reasons. Many serve the middle and higher very well.,