Gcse predictions from.ks2 sats

[Summer1912]

What sort of predictions would a child get from
Met writing
110 reading
113 maths
(Spag 118)
And what predicts the other subjects that arent maths and eng?

Targets for all subjects including art and drama will be set based on KS2 SATS.

Based on children I know I would expect targets or around 7 based on those SATS scores.

Probably 7+

I wouldn't set too much store on GCSE predictions based on SATS though. Focus on how your individual child progresses.

I can't help you with grade predictions but, at my son's school all exam grades are predicted based on performance in English and Maths. This means he has really high predictions for PE and Technology, both of which he suffers with as he has a significant Dyspraxia diagnosis.

Predicting a child's GCSEs from sats results is absolutely ridiculous. Schools may be forced to do it, but we dont have to set the blindest bit of store by it. Don't go down that route - really, madness lies there.

My DC had similar English results and predicted 7.
Maths results were quite a bit lower - predicted 5.
All other subjects predicted 6. I assume they average the other predictions, or all the SAT scores to get it.
Other DC had high teens in SATS and predicted 8s for everything.

I mean they'll probably be set at about 7 predicted across the board but realistically almost all schools have an additional 'target grade' based on work in the school's own on going assessment. Much depends on how mad the pre sats work was. Is this reflective of your child's general ability or did you and or the school go mad with prep?
That's the pain of most secondary school progress trackers tbh. They get kids that exceeded across the board but they were tutored up to the eye balls or taught sats content by the school day and night from Sept of Y6. This leaves the child don't well in SATS but it's completely not reflective of the child's ability, esp in the much broader range of subjects they end up doing in secondary school.

Based on his SATs my son was predicted 6s at gcse. (Summer birthday boy). He goes 8s and 9s. He's now predicted AAA at A level. I really wouldn't pay too much attention and encourage your child not to either. It's incredibly unhelpful.

*got not goes

Equally the other way is possible. My dd got above 115 in all SATs. Covid during yr8/9 and then poor work ethic in yr10/11...failed half her mock GCSEs and predicted the same results in august. It is more about work ethic and study habits rather than raw ability. I'm a teacher.

That's very true. Ds is very motivated and works hard. Much harder than I did.

School did do several past papers. But dc main maths issue was speed so we worked on that at home. Then also very inaccurate so actual ability is 120 on the maths.
Spag was higher than I expected. As there's usually several questions I can't do!
Reading lower than ability as didn't finish.
Teacher had thought needed extra time for maths but there was no criteria dc fit (however with the reading paper being hard I can now see that even with that she does work slowly. ) dc also said they didn't finish their writing work in the tome.
I'm glad dc speed in maths is better now (somewhat at cost of accuracy) as dc wasn't getting more than 3 questions done per maths lesson. So no practise.
Even so the timing of the reasoning maths was very tight so no checking.
I agree really this is best/worst case scenario. Just a guide. As the GCSE work is a lot harder.

Lol to the predicting pe as she certainly wouldn't get more than a fail at that.
Art maybe but getting coursework done would be awful

I contacted Fischer Family Trust last year to ask how separate science target grades are generated from a combined science SATs result. They said they look at the child's birth month, gender (not sex), schools DfE number and GCSE results from children with very similar SATs results and project. So, basically, you lick your finger, stick it in the air and see which way the wind blows.

It sums up everything that's wrong with the government's current approach to education. We know that child development and educational progress don't happen in a consistent, linear fashion. Some kids start early and stay ahead, some start early and plateau, and some are late developers. The whole concept of a flight path, and determining a child's 'innate' potential (or lack of it) at age 10/11 is absurd. This is the whole reason why the comprehensive system was introduced!

It's not even 'just a guide'. One of my kids failed sats badly. Now yr9 is above average in nearly every subject. You are still setting way too much store by this - your child has 5 years to go before GCSEs!

It sounds like working on your child's speed and accuracy (sounds like you've ruled out a processing problem) will be more useful that obsessing over their SATS results. This "they should have got 120 in their maths" really doesn't help anyone.

My DD had a horrendous time in her maths SATS and got 103 (after 115+ in every practice). Did it make any difference to her? No, because her school sensibly realised she was better at maths than her SATS score suggested and put her in appropriate maths sets with appropriate teaching all the way through school. If your secondary school doesn't do this, then go and speak to someone (not that 113 in maths won't put your child in a high set anyway if school initially sets off those results).

Teacher here. It's all bollocks to satisfy ofsted. Take no notice it really doesn't reflect gcse grades it's just a stick to monitor and beat teachers with of they don't match expected progress