A question about progress data, aimed at teachers, givernors etc

[flaymineck]

Would it be reasonable to assume that GCSE Progress 8 data for the most able students (who scored very highly in SATS) will tend to be lower than the general population, because they can never score higher than a 9 in any subject?

I had this conversation with a colleague (we both are ex teachers working in initial teacher education). I think you're right, but my understanding would be that very few would have scored high enough on the sats scores in order to be predicted a 9. Also, what is unclear to me is whether the exact score is used to calculate progress 8, or the grade (since a grade 9 is still not 100% so therefore not the ceiling). The algorithm for progress 8 is quite mysterious and I suspect problematic in many ways like the notorious 2020 algorithm.

Nope. Expected/good progress (score of 0) for chn who achieve GDS at KS2 takes them to somewhere between 7-8 so they can still make positive progress.

@ElizabethinherGermanGarden is all GDS at KS2 SATs level considered equal, ie does a KS2 SATs score of 110 translate to the same GCSE predicted grade as a score of 120?

The provisional table for KS2 to attainment 8 averages show 110 ~ 61.45;120~82.89. There are 34 prior attainment groups. The maximum attainment 8 would be 90 so max progess 8 for a top scoring KS2 pupil is (90-82.89)/10=+0.71. As pp says the average is 0.
You can download the guidance from gov.uk.
2022 GCSE results will be higher than 2023+ results.

There aren't any 'predicted' grades for GCSEs, Progress 8 is calculated based on a comparison with what the pupils who got the same SATs as them actually got, not what their target grades were.

Therefore you might think that a pupil who got v high SATs scores would get a negative progress 8 if they didn't get all 9s, that's not actually the case, because most of their peers won't be getting all 9s either (particularly bearing in mind the chunk of straight 9 kids who attend private schools and didn't sit SATs so aren't included in Progress 8).

Research also shows that high attainers also make more progress generally than lower attainers. So in a school with more high attainers, you would expect a higher progress 8. Obviously there is more to it and the algorithms for progress 8 are based on the assumption than everyone should make the same progress.