How accurate are GCSE targets based on KS2 sats results?

[jeanniee]

Just wondering if GCSE targets based on KS2 sats results are accurate at all, especially in subjects like, english, maths and science?

A good school will revise them - what is your reason for asking? Has you child got low scores/predictions or high scores/predictions?

When looking at a huge sample, there are always anomalies. No one can say whether the predictions are correct for A.N. Individual because you could e.g. pay a tutor, get a diagnosis that leads to adjustments or they might start smoking spliffs at 15 and bomb out.

Overall though, at group level - yes there is correlation - those with higher SATs scores are more likely to get higher GCSE marks.

Generally, yes. In specific cases, not necessarily.

We have the same issue with KS2 SATS predictions based on Year 1 data. Some kids are on track, others exceed but - more likely still - some are nowhere near their projections. And yet SLT still insist we work to them...

Kids with higher SATs grades are more likely to get higher GCSE grades. Not guaranteed, but more likely.

Some schools spout crap like '111 at SATs tracks to a 7.1 at GCSE' which is balls.

Individual students should not be given individual targets based on SATs, any mappings are based on averages over a large cohort.

Also, we haven't had a cohort that hasn't been affected by covid who have sat both the new KS2 SATs and the new GCSE grades.

DD got 120 in all her SATs and this translated to predicted 9s and 8s at high school. It's a bloody horrible cloud over her head tbh.

I work in secondary and largely, they do translate across a population but we check/adjust them twice annually and for some individuals, they don't work out. Plus, with our mock results in recently, it's clear that Covid has had an impact for our current cohort.

It is frustrating when they won't update targets which are based on one week more than a quarter of their lifetime ago. I am sure over a large group they are useful but at an individual level they can be fairly pointless.

In the case of my ds, not very. He is a late summer birthday. Ks1, below ks2 average - gcses all 8s and 9s except 1x5. Way over predictions.
Had some other kind of assessment for A level and now predicted A/A*

I hate how it works this way. I think it puts unnecessary pressure on y10/y11 children.

My teen got high marks in SATs in ks2 & predicted 8/9's. They only need 6's for Sixth Form , so told them to focus on that.

If they get higher grades, then good but it won't bother us in the slightest if they don't.

I meant that's what he achieved not his predictions - which were mostly 6s

Similar here. We kept getting reports home with "minimum target grades" which were mostly 9s, and predicted grades which weren't, and an accompanying letter saying that these were "only minimum target grades" so they should be able to exceed them. It was very demoralising.
Most teachers (very reasonably) were unwilling to predict a 9 before year 11, but in that case nobody should be given 9 as a minimum target grade either. I suggested that they make use of "8+" (or even 7+) for both targets and predictions.

For DD, English fell well short of the target. Getting full marks in the SATs is about SPAG, and at GCSE that is a much more minor part.

Our school has its "official" targets which are based on SATS (and will determine the school's official Progress 8 score for performance tables), and "school targets" which are revised upwards (never downwards) based on actual performance. My DC did well in SATS (can't remember scores) and his official targets are 7s, but his school targets are 9s. We are only given the school targets in reports so most people don't know about the lower official targets (I'm a governor so know how it works).

DD has target grades higher than her KS2 SATs would predict. She was absolute average in SATs and is targeted 7s all round and 8 for two subjects. Based on SATs she would be "only" 5/6 for everything.

The secondary school luckily only does sets for maths, all other subjects are mixed abilities and it helped her a lot as she wasn't fixed on just one grade prediction but could really show what she is able to do.

Her mocks though are currently all over the place but that's also due to the fact that she is suffering from anxiety and most likely will be diagnosed with ADHD and ASD soon.

But no private school data on there...

As others have said on a population level yes, on an individual level not so much. We take from more than 40 primary schools, ranging from those with a total school population in not much more than double figures to those with 2/3 form entry, and a smattering of fee paying.
Some of those schools focus almost exclusively in y6 on SATS, the kids have a limited curriculum until May of y6 and great SAT scores, other schools treat them as a by product, obviously those kids that come from the SATS focused schools end up with higher GCSE targets, but it never affects their setting ( in those subjects which set) nor their access to any course and it certainly doesn’t affect their GCSE attainment.

The table used to calculate progress 8 scores in 2022 are on p67 of the document available on this site. These are averages and GCSE marks were higher and there were other mitigations for COVID so won't be the same for other year groups.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/progress-8-school-performance-measure

That table is pretty incomprehensible, particularly as it refers to points not grades.

But students on an extremely low average SATs score got an average grade 2 English lang and lit GCSE? That doesn't seem right?

My kids did their SATs old style, so the highest they could get in anything was a 6. They got 5s across the board and were both predicted 5/6 for most of their GCSEs. And well exceeded that, getting only one B/6 each, the rest higher. People saying it works on a population level but not an individual one are right.

Dc target grade is a 6 in English but consistently working at a 9. School won't budge or predict higher because what a child did in yr6 is far more reliable than a bunch of exams and tests taken in yr 10 and 11.