How much progress is expected from KS2 to KS4?

[roogg]

Is there anywhere online where we can check the minimum grade a DC is expected to get in year 11 based on KS2 sats results? How much progress is expected? For example if a DC achieved 110 (KS2 sats) what grade would they be expected to achieve at the end of year 11?

You can Google ks2 flight paths. A pupil who achieved 110 in KS2 would be expected to achieve a 6 or 7 at GCSE I think.

Schools use progress 8

Here is a picture

You might find this page helpful:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/ready-reckoners-and-transition-matrices-for-key-stage-4

(My guess would be 6s & 7s.)

Waiting for @noblegiraffe to come on to say that the picture posted above is crazy and you can't possibly differentiate into 7- 7= and 7+ . I presume it is a school based picture not a government one.

Oh dear god my eyes.

Not only can you not differentiate between a 7-, 7= and 7+, the idea that you can assess KS3 classes TWICE against GCSE grades and differentiate between the outcomes is the biggest pile of bobbins I've seen in a flightpath yet.

Aside from anything else, we haven't had a normal GCSE year using the new KS2 SATS data yet and covid has thrown everything up in the air.

If they got around the expected level in KS2 (i.e. around 100) general progression would be to around the expected level in KS4 (i.e. around a 4). Top marks in SATs would generally progress to top grades at GCSE.

Between that is between that, but with the caveat that 5 years is a long time and anything can happen.

what are your thoughts on the correlation between CAT4 results and subsequent attainment? The CAT4 report taken Y6 shows indicators for KS3 and also GCSE’s.

It's all balls.

Correlation between CATS/SATs and eventual GCSE outcome, measured as national performance data, yes. As in 'the higher the CATs/SATs, the higher the GCSEs' as a general rule

The idea that schools can accurately and finely measure attainment on a GCSE grading scale at KS3 (or even Y10 tbh) is nonsense.

Thank you. Yes that makes sense. Common sense says there would be a correlation in aggregate but it is an indication of the potential for an individual student measured at one point in time not what they WILL attain.

on the other side, if you have low CAT/SAT scores at KS2, would you interrupt this to mean it would be a struggle to attain top grades at GSCE?

It’s all rubbish … I’ve got a son who sometimes scores 100 and sometimes 120 in SATs and CATs and another that was always scored borderline marks in CATS but passed 11+ with a high score and is now expected to get 8/9 at GCSE for the everything but languages … it all seems pretty in accurate to me

@Sage2025 I would say that we shouldn't define children by what they can do or not do at 11. Progress isn't linear. If a child presents with low SATs scores I would want a bigger picture from is this their usual grade and level and whether once starting secondary school that changes. Secondaries have proper science labs with gas taps and language rooms with walls filled with vocab and history rooms with essays and timelines and art rooms with incredibly art supplies. Teachers teach the subject they love (hopefully) unlike a primary school teacher who has to teach everything.

Primary schools mainly focus on English and maths which is why they are taught every morning. It is a base starting point. They can build on this. It is important to catch pupils up if they are behind in English and maths.There are millions of resources online to help students. Ask the school if they recommend anything specific. Teachers post on YouTube, there are websites with free maths problems to solve, audiobooks if children struggle to read books but still want stories. There are so many ways to help a child. Just discussing the news or playground gossip or the latest tiktok video, to give children a place to express their opinion, to possibly have that opinion challenged, or given a wider context within the world. This is why we have a family dinner every night for chatting.