I emailed ofsted and got this reply.
Whilst we are unable to say precisely when a school will be inspected, I can inform you about our approach to the timing of school inspections. This is designed to ensure that inspections are proportionate and focused on where we can have the most impact to encourage improvement.
The timing of a school’s inspection depends upon the overall grade it received following its previous inspection.
Between 15 May 2012 and 13 November 2020, maintained primary and secondary schools and academies judged to be outstanding in their overall effectiveness at their most recent section 5 inspection were exempt from routine inspections These schools are now once again subject to routine inspections. This also applies to academy converter schools that were formerly exempt because the overall effectiveness of their predecessor school was judged outstanding at its most recent section 5 inspection.
All formerly exempt schools will receive an initial section 5 or section 8 inspection before 1 August 2025. Those schools that were last inspected under section 5 before September 2015 will receive an initial section 5 inspection. Those last inspected under section 5 after this date will receive an initial section 8 inspection. If an initial section 8 inspection indicates that outstanding performance may not have been maintained, we will normally carry out a section 5 inspection within the next academic year or as soon as possible thereafter and, in any event, before 1 August 2025.
Schools judged Good at their last inspection will receive a two-day (section 8) inspection about every four years. The purpose of these inspections will be to establish if the school continues to be Good. This can lead to a section 5 inspection if the section 8 inspection indicates the school may no longer be Good (either because it may have improved or declined).
If a school that was judged Good at its last inspection subsequently undergoes significant change, such as in its age range, its next inspection will normally be a section 5 inspection instead of a section 8 inspection. Thereafter, if the school is judged Good, it will be eligible for a section 8 inspection.
so what does that mean, they may get away with it until 2025 in the worst scenario?
i mean ok they may still get a good and I will be proven wrong, but wouldn’t it be nice for the official governing school body to just visit and take all the guessing away? Isn’t that what ofsted exist for? So we don’t have to judge on things like the police being called the bus stop and what not?