Year 10 exam results vs actual GCSE

[Mia85]

DS is waiting for year 10 exam results to be released tomorrow. The school haven't given any information on what kind of progression they expect from year 10 to the final GCSE so he is not quite sure what to expect and seems quite stressed by that. The school say they mark to the final GCSE standard but won't gives 9s at this stage (so the top is an 8 even if you had a 'perfect' paper). He worked hard and is reasonably bright so I am concerned that he might be disappointed and want to manage expectations.

Does anyone know roughly how much progression they tend to make in that year?

No idea. One teacher has told the class that because they will only be doing a exam on half the syllabus they will only get 1/2 the grade so an 8 would be a 4. That was for RS but sounds like BS to me!

Exam results aren’t out until august OP?

This is just his year 10 results not the real things!

That’s ridiculous! We would not be allowed to do it like that in my school! And, nor should I want to!

OP, it’s difficult to say without knowing what kind of assessments and data have been used to come up with the result for year ten. The ways schools do it, especially post pandemic vary enormously.
I’m a head of faculty and our year tens are doing an end of year exam paper. It’s the same style, amount of marks and length as the real papers, but it’s one I’ve put together so that it only covers the topics they’ve seen so far. I then use an average of the grade boundaries from the past few years to allocate the grades. This exam score is then collated with all the assessments from year 10 (all exam style questions relating to the topics taught) for the overall year grade.
Based on this model, most pupils make 1-2 grades progress by May of year 11.

That's incredibly helpful, thanks so much. Yes that sounds very much like the model his school uses. The exams followed the same format etc of the real thing but only on topics they have studied.

Apparently they've all been winding each other up with rumours along the lines of 'no-one got above a 5 for French'. He took them really seriously and worked really hard so I don't want him to give up if they are lower than he's hoping for. One to two grades is a very helpful guide.

Do you mean mocks?

Yes, well they call them year 10 exams and then they do their proper mocks after Christmas in year 11.

As a PP said, generally 1-2 grades from Y10 exams to final exams is what I would expect.

I can only speak for my school and subject, but we give Y10 a full set of papers for maths and then use the official grade boundaries (or a variation, if we have used “official” mocks rather than a June/November exam series). So we would never not give a 9 if the student achieved it but equally it would be difficult (although it has happened) since the papers would include topics which hadn’t been taught or appeared in the SoW yet. Essentially, the grade would be a reflective of if you sat your GCSE at this exact moment, with your current knowledge and teaching, this is what you’d get.

Thanks v. much. The school has been very clear that they only start distinguishing 8s and 9s in year 11 but apart from that they say they are doing as you say i.e. "if you sat your GCSE at this exact moment, with your current knowledge and teaching, this is what you’d get."
So it sounds as if a grade or two improvement is fairly standard.
Thanks again

Well, in year 10 my teachers all predicted I'd failed completely and had to be persuaded to enter me for the exams and I got straight A*s and As. So I'd not put much stock in predicted results.

Op my subject is MFL and while I agree that the answer will vary depending on how the exams are set, even if only topics studied are covered in a yr 10 French exam there will be considerable improvement by yr 11 - their general vocabulary will improve, better use of tenses and key phrases, generally more fluent. Progress of 1-2 grades for sure.

To some extent this would be true if any subject tho less so perhaps for heavy on topic ones like history.

I agree with the above comments and 1-2 grades is reasonable. However, should your child decide they want a bigger grade jump than that then there is plenty of time to work at this. Summer holidays and weekends are literally 14 hour days if they sleep for 10 hours. Depending on commitments to family, jobs or sports this gives them time to nail the year 10 content. Once into year 11 they can do small amounts every day and improve their grade.

This does boil down to how much a child wants it. Ds struggles with English literature but has worked incredibly hard to improve his grade. He jumped almost 3 grades from November mocks in year 11 to February mocks due to incredible feedback from his English teacher who pinpointed where he could improve. Ds was motivated to do it though.

Thanks very much for the advice. Like lots of kids he had a rough time in the pandemic and completely disengaged for a while but has really got his motivation back this year so I didn't want him to end up discouraged. In fact ge's come home with a clutch of 7s and 8s so that has really encouraged him, especially as it sounds as if those should be a grade or so higher if he keeps working Though there is a 5 in his 'fun' option. It's such a relief after how he was feeling in year 9

As a teacher, I’d expect 2 grades improvement to the class average between y10 exams and final grades but that covers a lot of variability. Some students will get 7s in Y10 and get a 7 at the end. Others might get a 2 in year 10 and end up with a 9. I have one student in my current Y11 who went from a 2 to a 7 between November and March of year 11. There’s another kid who got an 8 in the summer of year 10 who had only managed a 7 so far this year because they are much less strong on the y11 content and it’s pulling them down. I expect both will end up with an 8.
He should be very proud of doing so well, but try really hard not to ramp up expectations for straight grade 9s at this stage. 1-2 grades might be typical or average but the fact is that the most “improvement” is made by those who underperformed in year 10.

I would say the biggest factor in improvement from year 10 to year 11 is work ethic. Your DS has done very well and has the potential to do even better in the real thing if he works hard.

I would help him to get a revision timetable in place over the summer holidays and he will need to be working hard right from the start of year 11 and putting in the hours.