School with below average GCSE results - how much of an issue?

[jobnockey]

Hi, choosing a secondary school for DS, we're moving so he'll be starting a new school in year 9. I'm finding the choosing a school process much harder than for year 7 and feeling quite stressed by it.

There's a school we liked, it is fairly small, seemed quite creative and nurturing, - but it has below average GCSE results... also fewer pupils going on to do A-Levels (most seem to go on to vocational subjects - this doesn't necessarily bother me though).

It does have a larger than average SEN intake and we wondered if that may skew the average somewhat? (I don't want to assume children with SEN don't do well in GCSEs but I really don't know if this would be a factor?). For context DS is relatively bright and well behaved, and likely to do reasonably well in most subjects if he sticks to his current trajectory.

Would the GCSE results put you off? There is another school nearby which has much better overall results but didn't have the same 'vibe' , i.e much stricter and more crowded .

Really don't know what to do for the best!

Does the school you are looking at have a place for your DC?

Assuming that is the case and it is a state school I would look at the progress 8 scores based on intake which breaks down the progress made by children based on their banding when they entered at year 7. Do high acheivers continue to do well. I might be concerned if high acheivers do not fulfill their potential at the school.

Thanks for the response, I've been looking at progress 8 scores, the school is rated 'average'.... Is there a way to break it down more?

They're both state schools, they haven't been able to say there's definitely a place but we're hopeful, and working on that assumption for stating our preferences anyway..

Assuming they put kids into a set appropriate for their ability, and the top set, if that's where he'd go, are all around his level then it doesn't really matter what happens to the kids in the other sets does it?

If top set has to cater for kids targeting grades 7 or higher then he should be stretched. If top set kids though are targeting grade 4s up to grade 9s, then he may not achieve what he should.

What’s your DS like? Is he easily distracted? Is he self motivated and a hard worker? Does he follow the crowd or go his own way?

If the progress 8 is average, the GCSE results match the predictions for that cohort of kids in Y7.

A positive progress 8 means they do better than predicted (and 0.5 is the top of average).
As far as I understand, A progress 8 of -0.5 (bottom of average) means each child dropped half a GCSE grade on average in each subject.

Can you find a news article celebrating the top performing students? If some kids are getting top grades, progress 8 is ok, and you like the school, go for it.

As pp said, look at Progress 8, in particular for higher prior attainers.
That is much better than 'just' looking at average results.

FInd your school on here and then click on results by pupil characteristics.

This for example is my daughters school that have better P8 scores formiddle and high performers.

www.compare-school-performance.service.gov.uk/school/140786/the-hertfordshire-%26-essex-high-school-and-science-college/secondary/results-by-pupil-characteristics?accordionstate=1

It would not put me off. My DC go to a school which has some really appalling GCSE results and very high number of SEN. People run miles from the place, send their DC on busses to schools further away and convert to Catholicism to avoid it. I could have send my DC to one of the further away schools, there were places available, but I didn’t. Their school is lovely, nurturing, does so many things the other schools don’t, isn’t a hot house for academic results and the DC have done so well.

What the school does do is set properly and is very supportive of the individual child. My DC are in the higher sets and DC1 is doing GCSEs this year and expected to get 9 GCSEs at grade 6+ most of them a lot higher. Unlike the “better” schools which have many many children achieving those grades, my DC are in the minority, and (I assume here), your DC would be as well. This doesn’t matter, as long as they are getting the support they need, teaching at the right level and are being challenged correctly. The schools progress results also above average which actually, in terms of progress, puts it above the other “better” schools which are just average.

For headlines I would, look at progress results, ignore EBacc and attainment results, and skim the OFSTED report to make sure there is nothing really dodgey in there (otherwise ignore it).
I would dig deeper into progress and attainment for each of the ability bands as this is where the true story lies.
After that, go with your gut feeling. If you like it and especially if our DC likes it, you can’t go far wrong.

Your DC sorry, not ours. Don’t worry, I’m not trying to adopt another child, I’ve enough already with 2! Ahaha

My DS went to one of the worst schools in the country. They have a 40% pass rate in English & Maths and their Progress 8 is shocking. Only 4 Grade 9s in all subjects in DS's year.

DS did OK in his GCSE's, got more than enough for his A Levels. I have no doubt he could have done better elsewhere however, that school was right for him. For example, they were amazing during lockdown (which of course is irrelevant now), but far better than other local schools deemed Good or Oustanding by Ofsted (with much better results). They have proved more supportive in situations than those other schools and whilst their results left a lot to be desired, I feel they made up for it in other stuff, and after COVID times, I'm really pleased that he went to a school that did amazingly well in supporting the wellbeing of its students.

I think it would depend on my child and if they set for subjects. If I had a very bright child and they didn’t set for subjects then it would be a no. If they did set I would be looking at the results of their high achievers.
If I had a more average child, who might be happy doing a more vocational course post 16 and I liked the school then it would be fine.
Where does your child sit academically? Do you think they are likely to want to do A levels followed by university?

I'd be looking at their setting policy.