A level grade inflation - consequences?

[Skneesrgud]

For the schools that were named this weekend as having considerably inflated A level grades last summer, are there to be any consequences?

OFSTED and ISI presumably won’t address the issue in their inspections.

Will governors or existing / prospective parents even view it as a negative?

Ultimately, did their headteachers take a gamble that paid off? Did they actually do anything wrong?

What do you think the consequences will be, OP?

Well, Ofqual seem to have approved the grading in those exam centres, so what possible repercussions could there now be (six months on)?

Short of being a slightly embarrassing February headline that will quickly be forgotten, I can’t imagine that it will even play badly with students / parents / governors in those institutions.

If you follow the (very long) Epsom college failing Oxbridge thread in Higher Education section you can see the links to letters sent to the Sunday Times from HMC and ISC, I hope they are printed next week. Apparently a ST education journalist has a grudge against private schools hence the report.

@sunshineclouds24 Thank you - I have just had a look at those two letters (I couldn’t find them on the Epsom thread).

The Sunday Times article was right to publish league tables, though. It is in the public interest to show variations in grade inflation between institutions (… although the article was concentrating on A*s).

I am just wondering if it will actually have done any reputational damage or, whether it might have done the opposite, even.

And whether Ofqual / the DfE should answer for why they approved grades that look so inaccurate.

Here is the HMC letter for anyone who is interested.

www.hmc.org.uk/blog/hmc-statement-following-record-breaking-assessment-results-and-sunday-times-coverage/

@Skneesrgud, the grades weren't inaccurate!

[quote sunshineclouds24]@Skneesrgud, the grades weren't inaccurate![/quote]
You couldn’t be deemed accurate or inaccurate in your grading in 2021 because there was no external standardisation or moderation.

… but your grade wasn’t just based on the professional judgement of your teacher.

The Sunday Times was highlighting variation among schools on the issue of grade inflation because every Headteacher had to manage their own grade inflation. Some Headteachers were more optimistic than others. Ofqual don’t appear to have challenged this.

In 2021, a student’s A level grade was not only based on their aptitude, diligence, experience of Covid or the quality of their teaching … it was also influenced by how daring their Headteacher was prepared to be in permitting grade inflation.

The same calibre of student in a different setting wouldn’t have got the A* that the students in those institutions that were named by the ST were awarded.

The main consequence is students struggling on their Uni courses when they're on a course that assumed a certain level of ability/knowledge based on an exam grade, which, it turns out, was inflated.

I know a few students who gave up 1n their first term of Uni last year when they really struggled, most of whom went through clearing to get onto "better" courses due to their A level grades being higher than forecast for their UCAS application.

My view is it should be investigated to protect this year of A level students and next years’ because those same persons in charge will be pushing them extremely hard to try and justify the 2021 results.

I hope someone investigates it @Adastraperaspera …

… but grades will definitely be going down in 2022 because Ofqual need to manage them back to normal levels: www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ofquals-approach-to-grading-exams-and-assessments-in-summer-2022-and-autumn-2021

I expect we will see a minor adjustment over the next two to three years. A*/A grades will fall slightly.

@Kazzyhoward

The main consequence is students struggling on their Uni courses when they're on a course that assumed a certain level of ability/knowledge based on an exam grade, which, it turns out, was inflated.

I know a few students who gave up 1n their first term of Uni last year when they really struggled, most of whom went through clearing to get onto "better" courses due to their A level grades being higher than forecast for their UCAS application.

Which probably had far more to do with being imprisoned in their halls of residence and being stuck with online-only teaching, rather than it being anything to do with a lack of aptitude for the course they took.

I just thought I would come back to this thread now that there does seem to be some small embarrassment caused to those schools who inflated their grades last year.

No actual repercussions to those responsible, of course, unless schools are being judged on a year-to-year decline in their value-added scores (which independent schools aren’t, in any meaningful way; the grammars, perhaps, may not enjoy their next Ofsted quite so much).

Still, I see in the Guardian that the HMC have ‘declined to comment’. Probably for the best, really. And what could they possibly say that excuses what their members have done to the integrity of our qualifications system?

Has anyone seen comment from Ofqual?

I wish theyd stop trying to game the system now it's back to examined, just apply rigourous standards as to what constitutes an A, B etc. The same thing is going to happen this and next year re: uni places. My DC school are being ultra conservative with predicted grades because of this so when lots of kids, inevitably, do better than predicted they will go through clearing or take a year out and apply with achieved grades. Most of my DC lower sixth going into upper are actively planning to do this as they've been given much lower than expected predicted grades, generally. Artificially low I think to avoid any negative publicity (private school). Just let the poor kids get what they get and are capable of and gather rigourous evidence of improvement etc.

His lower sixth are so incenced (not across the board of course, but generally) that they've spent most of the summer revising and doing A level year 1 revision courses etc. Which is a good thing of course, it will help them maximise their performance in the actual exams. But it also means more than normal will do better than predicted I think. Can't be helpful for university admissions who are already telling them - don't rely on clearing, we won't be putting many course in clearing etc. But if large chunks do better, don't accept their places and defer for a year then surely they will have to fill more places in clearing?

I hate the gamification, just be fair and accurate and keep records like any school surely should have been doing anyway and then let the examining boards do their thing. As anyone who has read a modern A level specification knows, it is very clearly defined.

My dd fell foul of teacher assessment and actually got worse grades than she deserved but good enough for her first choice uni. She's just completed her first year at uni with a comfortable first so feels vindicated that she was undergraded last year. Her 6th form college actually got better results this year than the past two years! Annoying when the media keeps saying about grade inflation which makes her feel her results are even worse than they sound😡

If she got worse than predicted how is that worse than deserved? Are you saying she actually deserved the higher predicted grades that the college over- predicted? I don't get that I'm afraid. They deserve how they perform in the exams surely?

Glad it's worked out for her either way. If it's any consolation, many of the kids about to do uni applications can't even apply for what would have been their first choice as their predicted grades aren't high enough. Even though most of them are clearly capable of actually getting the unis stated grades.

Or were her's teacher assessed not examined and you feel the teachers under graded?

It all a big mess for that COVID year and the repercussions are still on going. I have a friend whose diaghter is just going into second year at a uni that required AAA which her school gave her, but she's really struggling on the course as, she freely admits, she was more of a B/C student and wpuld have been expecting Bs and C's before COVID.

I really wish we would just get back to normal now and stop over and under compensating.

The media haven’t done nearly enough in calling out the malpractice of certain schools in the independent sector, nor has there been an enquiry—as far as I know—into why Ofqual failed to investigate implausibly inflated grades in some centres.

Sir Gavin Williamson could at least be prevailed upon to make a comment, couldn’t he?

And, of course, children shouldn’t feel accountable for how their grades were arrived at @gleegeek, but the press, surely, should be expected to hold public offices to account? Standards were not upheld by Ofqual.

And shouldn’t the chair of the HMC expand upon his defence of the independent sector’s practice (further up the thread, cited by @sunshineclouds24) in light of this year’s results? An admission, at least, that there were some rotten apples …

Exam boards were meant to moderate individual school results.

Is there a list of schools that over inflated? Where can it be seen?

The problem with the overinflated grades is that schools that were fair have pupils that are doubly penalised.

1. By getting a fair grade grade and not an inflated one they have lower degree for the same ability/effort as others
2. People will assume it's inflated.

I do blame the media, because the stories they ran in 2020 were all "student expected this grade and got lower and it's not fair" could be run any year. Every year there are students who are disappointed because they messed up an exam/didn't work/they or teachers had overinflated idea of ability/were unlucky.

In 2020 they could have just as easily run the triplets get 27 grade A*s between them as they do every other year. They chose not to.

The media and a minority of vocal students manipulated the situation. Ofqual advised against it and the government announced teacher predicted grades against their advice.

The statistics speak for themselves.

The fact that so many schools, clearly especially the private sector (I know one that just predicted 9s across the board, despite having a normal distribution normally) over predicted isn't a story of success. It's a story of other pupils being discriminated against. That pupil who got AAA when they didn't deserve it and took up the university place in many cases there will have been another pupil who was fairly awarded AAB and then was refused. In normal years they might well have been accepted despite missing their offer, but in that year there were too many getting the offer, and then they have to accept them.

And those children who were overpredicted? Some it will have done them a favour. They'll have got into universities they wouldn't have. However at the GCSE level I know a number who have ended up dropping a year because they found that the A-levels they chose off the back of their fantastic GCSE results they struggled. Because they knew they hadn't earned the grades they had been given, they often gave up quite quickly because they didn't have the confidence that they were actually good at the subject.
And actually the grades they got didn't even give them a lot of pleasure; they didn't feel pride in them. I was told that separately by a couple of 2020 GCSE-ers, which I felt was really sad.

Sonnex the college informally assessed at the end of every half term from the beginning* of year 12 and then used those grades to back up their A-level teacher assessment. Dd is a slow burner and suffered badly from anxiety so her lower 6th results weren't stellar and weren't ever meant to be used but as she settled into year 13 her results went up and up. By the last few assessments she was up to A and A grades for all her subjects but as they didn't do any extra exams or formal assessments they used the previous year's work as evidence. She was in the top 15 in her secondary school for gcses and clearly is capable but her end results didn't really demonstrate her ability. Thank goodness her uni accepted her anyway!
She usually performs well in exams and had the opportunity taken away from her.

Sorry - these are behind a paywall.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/top-exam-grades-plummet-at-single-sex-private-schools-8bdfskk8b @justasmalltownmum

This was the article in February. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-gamed-covid-rules-to-give-their-pupils-more-top-a-levels-6z0z6w9r5

the DM carried lists in Feb: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10482061/amp/Private-schools-gamed-Covid-double-grades-investigation-finds.html

Which universities imprisoned students in their halls last September @JuergenSchwarzwald ? The last lockdown I recall was Jan- March '21.

Presumably those calling for investigation into and consequences for those schools who over-inflated their grades, will want those consequences applied to the state schools which did this, as well as to the private schools?