How do teachers work out predicted grades for A’levels?

[Billfortune]

I have a DS in year 12. He does 3 sets of big exams per year plus smaller tests I suppose. This has made me wonder what is used for predicting grades. The first set of big exams were sat when they’d only been doing A’levels for around a month, the second big exams are happening currently then the third set in June/July.

Different schools/ academies will have slightly different processes. We had to report it all to parents last year for Teacher/Centre Assessed Grades so if you ask they should have all the info there ready for you.

It also matters if you mean predicted or target grades. The latter are generated by computer from GCSEs, the former from various tests, sometimes weighted, and usually with a bit of teachers uplift. Not a very precise science. ( and predicted grades for home, and those submitted for UCAS can differ as well).

@JaffavsCookie

It also matters if you mean predicted or target grades. The latter are generated by computer from GCSEs, the former from various tests, sometimes weighted, and usually with a bit of teachers uplift. Not a very precise science. ( and predicted grades for home, and those submitted for UCAS can differ as well).

This is new to me as did a different system

Do students usually reach their target grades?

I was wondering about the grades for UCAS.

I agree that it's likely to be a range of processes for different schools/sixth forms. For my DC (who started there in Y12), they gave grades in the summer exams and a set in the autumn so were given predicted grades from that. For UCAS, they said they'd put a slight improvement so
you could get an offer from a preferred uni.... but they wouldn't go wildly over and also wanted the DC also to include places with offers they thought were achievable.

So, if they thought someone would get BBC, they'd predict BBB if you needed them to but would want you to include places which would offer BBC or below - they wouldn't jump to AAB.

My daughter (y12) says that the exams they sit in the summer term will be the predominant ones used to predict grades.

Experienced teachers will have taught lots of students with a similar academic profile to your DS’s. They will know what they got in their final exams. That knowledge, coupled with their exam results, will inform their predictions.

It is surprisingly not that hard actually; using the evidence of mocks, classwork, homework, knowledge of the student and their ability, attitude, work ethic, a good teacher can do this pretty accurately.

Yes sometimes there will be a curveball (my DD struggles with exams and for various reasons did less well at A levels than predicted, but her predicted grades were made in good faith and without knowledge of what would go wrong to be fair) but in general it's pretty exact.

I have found my predictions of GCSE and A level for students I work with (usually those not in school) are very accurate.

Thanks everyone for the informative replies.

When Ds started sixth form they literally added up GCSE grades and divided by the number they took. The highest grade "target" was A*/A. Then they were tested roughly every 3- 4 weeks on end of topic stuff and assessed against their target. Plus homework.

Ds finished year 12 maths content before Christmas (maths and further maths A levels, whole of maths A level content done in year 12) and they sat an AS maths paper in exam conditions. Each student got a sheet with their mark on plus the grade and then it listed all grades with the number of students who achieved it.Plus the number of students who were above, on or below their target grades. They could therefore see the sixth form cohort for their subject.

This continued with all subjects, you knew exactly where you were in terms of classwork, participation in class and knowledge demonstration, homework and regular assessments. Ds felt confident in his grade predictions.

I could tell you how my son's school does it, but other schools do it differently.
It's worth bearing in mind that UCAS advice to schools is to predict the most positive reasonable grade, i.e. assume they will knuckle down to revise, get a good night's sleep the night before the exam, etc.

clary I agree - my DDs' school have been good. DD1 didn't get her target grades (was very close) - but we had a major bereavement in the family 2 weeks before the exams. DD2 was predicted ABC, got ABB due to unexpectedly good work in History - she did her A levels last year in the pandemic and they were assessed to hell and back under full exam conditions, but it worked in her favour.